Trading Signals: SMH Stock Price Prediction and Forecast

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Mon. Aug. 1, 2016

Trading Signals: SMH Stock Price Prediction and Forecast (Mon. Feb. 10, 2014 - Thu. Jun. 20, 2024)

(Semiconductor sector etf)
SMH latest price $61.1092 (0.28%) ($60.9364 - $61.3203) on Mon. Aug. 1, 2016.

Trend Analysis and Forecast

Average Daily Percentage Swing   1.47% (three month average)
RSI   80
Latest Price   $61.1092(0.28%)
Stocks Behave Similarly   Similar Stock List
Top Holdings   Top Holding List
Daily Trend   SMH advances 0.5% a day on average for past five trading days.
Weekly Trend   SMH advances 3.1% a week on average for past two weeks.
Market Behavior   Rotation from value to growth for large cap. Normal for small cap.
Correlated ETFs   Broad market will support SMH advance at 0% a week (0% probability)
QQQ(75%)    IVW(73%)    IWF(73%)    XLK(71%)    SPY(69%)
Factors Impacting SMH price   SMH will decline at least -0.735% in a week (0% probabilities).
VIXM(-15%)    UUP(-13%)    TLT(-9%)    IPO(-8%)    IGOV(-4%)
Explanation The rally is not sustainable and not supported by the broad market.

Relative Volatility (options are extremely cheap)

Market Trend Strength   -0.735% (StdDev 1.47%)
Hourly BBV 0 ()
Intraday Trend 0%

5 Day Moving Average   $61.2(-0.15%)
10 Day Moving Average   $60.32(1.31%)
20 Day Moving Average   $58.32(4.78%)
To recent high   -0.6%
To recent low   24.2%
Market Cap   $N/A

$. SMH price fluctuates within 4.36% (three month std-dev: 1.47%) daily (68% of days).

Sample size 0 Average positive next day return: 0%(0%) Average negative next day return: 0%(0%) Sample size 0 Average positive next three day return: 0%(0%) Average negative next three day return: %(0%) Sample size 0 Average positive next weekly return: 0%(0%) Average negative next weekly return: 0%(0%)

Analysis News Options Weekly Chart Daily Chart 2 Month Daily Chart

> 20160901

i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD
1	Aug_1_2016	53.72	58.32	60.32	61.2			61.11(0.28%)	UT	HoldLong	65	-0	37	-10000	6	130	1.25	68%	0.17	79.8	1.47%	0	1.1	80	0
2	Jul_29_2016	53.63	57.99	60.11	60.92			60.94(-0.41%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0	39	-10000	6	138	1.97	65%	0.21	79.5	1.48%	0	1.1	82	0
3	Jul_28_2016	53.52	57.67	59.76	60.63			61.19(-0.13%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.2	42	-10000	9	139	1.72	62%	0.21	74.5	1.52%	0	1.4	86	0
4	Jul_27_2016	53.41	57.3	59.39	60.22			61.26(-0.36%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.4	41	-10000	7	144	2.78	62%	0.23	69.1	1.55%	0	1.6	89	0
5	Jul_26_2016	53.29	56.87	58.96	59.89			61.48(2.89%)	UT	HoldLong	65	0.6	49	-10000	12	159	8.61	62%	0.21	62.2	1.56%	0	1.8	92	0

6	Jul_25_2016	53.18	56.36	58.5	59.34			59.76(0.47%)	UT	HoldLong	65	0.2	44	-10000	4	165	1.32	59%	0.17	50	1.52%	0	1.3	90	0
7	Jul_22_2016	53.09	56.02	58.16	59.18			59.48(0.6%)	UT	HoldLong	65	0.1	52	-10000	10	178	2.15	59%	0.19	48	1.53%	0	1.4	79	0
8	Jul_21_2016	52.99	55.83	57.78	58.75			59.12(-0.85%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.2	49	-10000	8	170	3.55	59%	0.17	49.9	1.53%	0	1.4	74	0
9	Jul_20_2016	52.9	55.6	57.3	58.41			59.63(1.54%)	UT	HoldLong	65	0.5	51	-10000	12	167	2.28	59%	0.19	50.6	1.52%	0	1.8	81	0
10	Jul_19_2016	52.8	55.34	56.7	57.88			58.73(-0.39%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.4	45	-10000	8	155	0.83	58%	0.19	50.7	1.51%	0	1.7	82	0

11	Jul_18_2016	52.7	55.12	56.17	57.53			58.96(2.91%)	UT	HoldLong	65	0.8	49	-10000	12	160	2.63	58%	0.21	51.3	1.52%	0	2.1	86	0
12	Jul_15_2016	52.59	54.84	55.69	57.01			57.29(-0.28%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.2	45	-10000	8	155	2.01	55%	0.17	47.5	1.48%	0	1.5	69	0
13	Jul_14_2016	52.5	54.67	55.42	56.67			57.45(0.84%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.5	46	-10000	16	137	1.58	55%	0.19	41.2	1.48%	0	1.8	52	0
14	Jul_13_2016	52.4	54.48	55.04	56			56.97(0.02%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.7	39	-10000	17	104	0.99	57%	0.19	28.2	1.49%	0	1.8	56	0
15	Jul_12_2016	52.3	54.33	54.61	55.31			56.96(1.09%)	UT	OpenLong	75	1.3	28	-10000	17	61	1.45	57%	0.17	11.4	1.51%	0	2	56	0

16	Jul_11_2016	52.21	54.18	54.04	54.61			56.35(1.35%)	UT	OpenLong	75	1.5	10	-10000	10	8	1.48	57%	0.19	-6.7	1.5%	0	1.9	55	0
17	Jul_8_2016	52.11	54.06	53.68	54.2			55.6(2.73%)	DP	OpenShort	-65	1.4	-1	-10000	4	-17	2.84	57%	0.17	-20.6	1.49%	0	1.5	56	0
18	Jul_7_2016	52.02	54.04	53.69	54.02			54.12(1.13%)	DP	OpenShort	-65	0.1	-2	-10000	2	-12	1.6	54%	0.13	-23.5	1.46%	0	0.1	51	0
19	Jul_6_2016	51.95	54.09	53.74	53.94			53.52(0.14%)	N/A	N/A	0	-0.4	1	-10000	4	-9	3.45	54%	0.13	-22.7	1.46%	0	-0.5	49	0
20	Jul_5_2016	51.88	54.18	53.87	53.78			53.44(-1.59%)	N/A	N/A	0	-0.3	6	-10000	11	-9	2.55	54%	0.17	-23.9	1.47%	0	-0.7	48	0

21	Jul_1_2016	51.79	54.25	53.99	53.34			54.31(-0.74%)	DP	OpenShort	-65	0.9	-1	-10000	7	-26	1.61	56%	0.21	-34	1.45%	0	0.1	51	0
22	Jun_30_2016	51.68	54.25	53.93	53.06			54.71(1.79%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	1.6	-18	-10000	-8	-49	3.51	56%	0.21	-38.3	1.44%	0	0.4	51	0
23	Jun_29_2016	51.57	54.28	53.86	53.36			53.75(2.04%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	0.4	-15	-10000	-5	-46	5.45	54%	0.17	-26.9	1.42%	0	-0.5	43	0
24	Jun_28_2016	51.48	54.33	53.89	53.57			52.67(2.73%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	-0.9	-21	-10000	-11	-50	5.42	52%	0.16	-16.1	1.41%	0	-1.6	37	0
25	Jun_27_2016	51.4	54.44	54.04	54.01			51.27(-3.08%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-2.7	-25	-10000	-18	-44	7.81	48%		5.4	1.37%	0	-3.2	28	0
i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD

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