Trading Signals: SMH Stock Price Prediction and Forecast

^ SMH: Intraday Hourly Forecast Similar Waves GapOpen Research Timing Gains Losses Strategies Practice

Wed. Jul. 6, 2016

Trading Signals: SMH Stock Price Prediction and Forecast (Mon. Feb. 10, 2014 - Thu. Jun. 20, 2024)

(Semiconductor sector etf)
SMH latest price $53.5185 (0.14%) ($52.6069 - $53.5953) on Wed. Jul. 6, 2016.

Trend Analysis and Forecast

Average Daily Percentage Swing   1.46% (three month average)
RSI   49
Latest Price   $53.5185(0.14%)
Stocks Behave Similarly   Similar Stock List
Top Holdings   Top Holding List
Daily Trend   SMH advances 0.3% a day on average for past five trading days.
Weekly Trend   SMH declines -0.3% a week on average for past two weeks.
Market Behavior   Broad based rally for large cap. Growth stock rally for small cap.
Correlated ETFs   Broad market will support SMH advance at 0% a week (0% probability)
QQQ(75%)    IVW(73%)    IWF(73%)    XLK(71%)    SPY(70%)
Factors Impacting SMH price   SMH will decline at least -0.73% in a week (0% probabilities).
VIXM(-15%)    UUP(-13%)    TLT(-9%)    IPO(-7%)    IGOV(-4%)
Explanation The rally is not sustainable and not supported by the broad market.

Relative Volatility (options are extremely cheap)

Market Trend Strength   -0.73% (StdDev 1.46%)
Hourly BBV 0 ()
Intraday Trend 0.9%

Resistance Level   $54.09
5 Day Moving Average   $53.94(-0.78%)
10 Day Moving Average   $53.74(-0.41%)
20 Day Moving Average   $54.09(-1.06%)
To recent high   -4.7%
To recent low   8.8%
Market Cap   $N/A

$. SMH price fluctuates within 1.94% (three month std-dev: 1.46%) daily (68% of days).

Sample size 0 Average positive next day return: 0%(0%) Average negative next day return: 0%(0%) Sample size 0 Average positive next three day return: 0%(0%) Average negative next three day return: %(0%) Sample size 0 Average positive next weekly return: 0%(0%) Average negative next weekly return: 0%(0%)

Analysis News Options Weekly Chart Daily Chart 2 Month Daily Chart

> 20160806

i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD
1	Jul_6_2016	51.95	54.09	53.74	53.94			53.52(0.14%)	N/A	N/A	0	-0.4	1	-10000	4	-9	3.45	54%	0.13	-22.7	1.46%	0	-0.5	49	0
2	Jul_5_2016	51.88	54.18	53.87	53.78			53.44(-1.59%)	N/A	N/A	0	-0.3	6	-10000	11	-9	2.55	54%	0.17	-23.9	1.47%	0	-0.7	48	0
3	Jul_1_2016	51.79	54.25	53.99	53.34			54.31(-0.74%)	DP	OpenShort	-65	0.9	-1	-10000	7	-26	1.61	56%	0.21	-34	1.45%	0	0.1	51	0
4	Jun_30_2016	51.68	54.25	53.93	53.06			54.71(1.79%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	1.6	-18	-10000	-8	-49	3.51	56%	0.21	-38.3	1.44%	0	0.4	51	0
5	Jun_29_2016	51.57	54.28	53.86	53.36			53.75(2.04%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	0.4	-15	-10000	-5	-46	5.45	54%	0.17	-26.9	1.42%	0	-0.5	43	0

6	Jun_28_2016	51.48	54.33	53.89	53.57			52.67(2.73%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	-0.9	-21	-10000	-11	-50	5.42	52%	0.16	-16.1	1.41%	0	-1.6	37	0
7	Jun_27_2016	51.4	54.44	54.04	54.01			51.27(-3.08%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-2.7	-25	-10000	-18	-44	7.81	48%	0.1	5.4	1.37%	0	-3.2	28	0
8	Jun_24_2016	51.35	54.61	54.37	54.68			52.9(-5.84%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-2.6	-7	-10000	-4	-14	7.89	52%	0.12	52	1.33%	0	-2.5	40	0
9	Jun_23_2016	51.29	54.68	54.54	54.84			56.19(2.5%)	N/A	N/A	0	2.3	9	-10000	14	-5	3.18	65%	0.18	99.1	1.1%	0	2.6	60	0
10	Jun_22_2016	51.2	54.56	54.42	54.42			54.81(-0.12%)	DP	OpenShort	-65	0.8	-3	-10000	5	-28	3.6	61%	0.18	123.3	1.07%	0	0.5	49	0

11	Jun_21_2016	51.11	54.5	54.47	54.27			54.88(0.47%)	DP	OpenShort	-65	1.2	-4	-10000	5	-32	3.07	61%	0.14	140.2	1.07%	0	0.7	50	0
12	Jun_20_2016	51.04	54.38	54.5	54.12			54.62(1.68%)	DP	OpenShort	-65	0.7	-7	-10000	3	-36	2.6	61%	0.14	111.5	1.07%	0	0.3	51	0
13	Jun_17_2016	50.97	54.26	54.51	54.03			53.72(-0.67%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.4	-14	-10000	-5	-42	5.08	58%	0.16	102.5	1.06%	0	-0.6	42	0
14	Jun_16_2016	50.89	54.11	54.64	54.17			54.08(0.05%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	-0.1	-14	-10000	-9	-28	3.51	58%	0.16	81.5	1.06%	0	-0	54	0
15	Jun_15_2016	50.81	53.96	54.72	54.43			54.06(-0.11%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.3	-8	-10000	-9	-5	1.37	58%	0.16	79.1	1.07%	0	0.1	57	0

16	Jun_14_2016	50.73	53.77	54.8	54.69			54.11(-0.12%)	N/A	N/A	0	-0.3	-1	-10000	-9	22	3.84	58%	0.16	71.1	1.07%	0	0.2	63	0
17	Jun_13_2016	50.65	53.6	54.86	54.94			54.18(-0.42%)	UD	OpenLong	65	-0.4	12	-10000	-4	61	1.67	58%	0.14	71.5	1.07%	0	0.3	76	0
18	Jun_10_2016	50.58	53.38	54.9	55.06			54.41(-1.73%)	UD	OpenLong	65	-0.3	20	-10000	-3	90	2.88	62%	0.18	65.5	1.1%	0	0.5	81	0
19	Jun_9_2016	50.49	53.13	54.87	55.16			55.37(0%)	UT	HoldLong	50	0.1	38	-10000	4	140	3.09	67%	0.2	61.7	1.07%	0	1	98	0
20	Jun_8_2016	50.39	52.87	54.73	55.05			55.37(0.02%)	UT	HoldLong	65	0.1	45	-10000	4	168	2.21	61%	0.22	61.2	1.07%	0	1.1	90	0

21	Jun_7_2016	50.28	52.61	54.55	54.94			55.36(1.05%)	UT	HoldLong	65	0.2	53	-10000	5	197	3.98	61%	0.1	61.6	1.1%	0	1.3	91	0
22	Jun_6_2016	50.23	52.33	54.26	54.79			54.79(-0.24%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0	55	-10000	3	212	2.96	61%	0.2	59.1	1.1%	0	1.1	83	0
23	Jun_3_2016	50.13	52.08	53.99	54.71			54.92(0.19%)	UT	HoldLong	65	0.1	65	-10000	6	241	2.6	61%	0.16	58.2	1.1%	0	1.3	87	0
24	Jun_2_2016	50.05	51.81	53.55	54.54			54.81(-0.02%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.1	67	-10000	6	248	2.24	61%	0.18	54	1.1%	0	1.5	87	0
25	Jun_1_2016	49.96	51.55	53.15	54.35			54.82(0.4%)	UT	HoldLong	65	0.2	69	-10000	8	251	1.91	66%		46.4	1.1%	0	1.7	76	0
i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD

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