Trading Signals: SMH Stock Price Prediction and Forecast

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Mon. Jun. 20, 2016

Trading Signals: SMH Stock Price Prediction and Forecast (Mon. Feb. 10, 2014 - Wed. Jun. 26, 2024)

(Semiconductor sector etf)
SMH latest price $54.6221 (1.68%) ($54.4877 - $55.1691) on Mon. Jun. 20, 2016.

Trend Analysis and Forecast

Average Daily Percentage Swing   1.07% (three month average)
RSI   51
Latest Price   $54.6221(1.68%)
Stocks Behave Similarly   Similar Stock List
Top Holdings   Top Holding List
Daily Trend   SMH advances 0.2% a day on average for past five trading days.
Weekly Trend   SMH declines -0.7% a week on average for past two weeks.
Market Behavior   Broad based rally for large cap. Broad based rally for small cap.
Correlated ETFs   Broad market will support SMH advance at 0% a week (0% probability)
QQQ(75%)    IVW(73%)    IWF(73%)    XLK(71%)    SPY(70%)
Factors Impacting SMH price   SMH will decline at least -0.535% in a week (0% probabilities).
VIXM(-16%)    UUP(-14%)    TLT(-10%)    IPO(-7%)    IGOV(-4%)
Explanation The rally is not sustainable and not supported by the broad market.

Relative Volatility (options are extremely cheap)

Market Trend Strength   -0.535% (StdDev 1.07%)
Hourly BBV 0 ()
Intraday Trend 0.2%

5 Day Moving Average   $54.12(0.93%)
10 Day Moving Average   $54.5(0.22%)
20 Day Moving Average   $54.38(0.45%)
To recent high   -1.4%
To recent low   11%
Market Cap   $N/A

$. SMH price fluctuates within 1.31% (three month std-dev: 1.07%) daily (68% of days).

Sample size 0 Average positive next day return: 0%(0%) Average negative next day return: 0%(0%) Sample size 0 Average positive next three day return: 0%(0%) Average negative next three day return: %(0%) Sample size 0 Average positive next weekly return: 0%(0%) Average negative next weekly return: 0%(0%)

Analysis News Options Weekly Chart Daily Chart 2 Month Daily Chart

> 20160720

i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD
1	Jun_20_2016	51.04	54.38	54.5	54.12			54.62(1.68%)	DP	OpenShort	-65	0.7	-7	-10000	3	-36	2.6	61%	0.14	111.5	1.07%	0	0.3	51	0
2	Jun_17_2016	50.97	54.26	54.51	54.03			53.72(-0.67%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.4	-14	-10000	-5	-42	5.08	58%	0.16	102.5	1.06%	0	-0.6	42	0
3	Jun_16_2016	50.89	54.11	54.64	54.17			54.08(0.05%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	-0.1	-14	-10000	-9	-28	3.51	58%	0.16	81.5	1.06%	0	-0	54	0
4	Jun_15_2016	50.81	53.96	54.72	54.43			54.06(-0.11%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.3	-8	-10000	-9	-5	1.37	58%	0.16	79.1	1.07%	0	0.1	57	0
5	Jun_14_2016	50.73	53.77	54.8	54.69			54.11(-0.12%)	N/A	N/A	0	-0.3	-1	-10000	-9	22	3.84	58%	0.16	71.1	1.07%	0	0.2	63	0

6	Jun_13_2016	50.65	53.6	54.86	54.94			54.18(-0.42%)	UD	OpenLong	65	-0.4	12	-10000	-4	61	1.67	58%	0.14	71.5	1.07%	0	0.3	76	0
7	Jun_10_2016	50.58	53.38	54.9	55.06			54.41(-1.73%)	UD	OpenLong	65	-0.3	20	-10000	-3	90	2.88	62%	0.18	65.5	1.1%	0	0.5	81	0
8	Jun_9_2016	50.49	53.13	54.87	55.16			55.37(0%)	UT	HoldLong	50	0.1	38	-10000	4	140	3.09	67%	0.2	61.7	1.07%	0	1	98	0
9	Jun_8_2016	50.39	52.87	54.73	55.05			55.37(0.02%)	UT	HoldLong	65	0.1	45	-10000	4	168	2.21	61%	0.22	61.2	1.07%	0	1.1	90	0
10	Jun_7_2016	50.28	52.61	54.55	54.94			55.36(1.05%)	UT	HoldLong	65	0.2	53	-10000	5	197	3.98	61%	0.1	61.6	1.1%	0	1.3	91	0

11	Jun_6_2016	50.23	52.33	54.26	54.79			54.79(-0.24%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0	55	-10000	3	212	2.96	61%	0.2	59.1	1.1%	0	1.1	83	0
12	Jun_3_2016	50.13	52.08	53.99	54.71			54.92(0.19%)	UT	HoldLong	65	0.1	65	-10000	6	241	2.6	61%	0.16	58.2	1.1%	0	1.3	87	0
13	Jun_2_2016	50.05	51.81	53.55	54.54			54.81(-0.02%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.1	67	-10000	6	248	2.24	61%	0.18	54	1.1%	0	1.5	87	0
14	Jun_1_2016	49.96	51.55	53.15	54.35			54.82(0.4%)	UT	HoldLong	65	0.2	69	-10000	8	251	1.91	66%	0.16	46.4	1.1%	0	1.7	76	0
15	May_31_2016	49.88	51.3	52.67	54.1			54.6(0.37%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.3	71	-10000	15	237	3.69	61%	0.22	41.2	1.12%	0	1.8	73	0

16	May_27_2016	49.77	51.09	52.24	53.64			54.4(0.66%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.5	66	-10000	16	215	1.4	66%	0.14	35.4	1.16%	0	2	75	0
17	May_26_2016	49.7	50.87	51.73	53.15			54.05(0.34%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.6	65	-10000	24	189	2.51	66%	0.12	25.4	1.17%	0	2.2	74	0
18	May_25_2016	49.64	50.72	51.24	52.4			53.86(0.56%)	UT	OpenLong	75	1.1	52	-10000	21	143	3.11	66%	0.08	10.6	1.17%	0	2.3	73	0
19	May_24_2016	49.6	50.65	50.84	51.77			53.57(2.42%)	UT	OpenLong	75	1.5	48	-10000	25	116	3.02	66%	0.06	0	1.17%	0	2.4	73	0
20	May_23_2016	49.57	50.56	50.48	51.03			52.3(0.65%)	UT	OpenLong	75	1.2	29	-10000	14	73	3.83	62%	0.04	-18.6	1.15%	0	1.6	63	0

21	May_20_2016	49.55	50.52	50.21	50.63			51.96(3.32%)	UT	OpenLong	75	1.3	25	-10000	18	44	4.36	62%	0.02	-32.5	1.17%	0	1.4	56	0
22	May_19_2016	49.54	50.5	49.98	50.11			50.29(-0.87%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.2	7	-10000	8	5	1.72	56%	-0.02	-48.5	1.11%	0	-0.2	49	0
23	May_18_2016	49.55	50.58	49.93	49.89			50.74(1.77%)	DP	OpenShort	-65	0.8	-3	-10000	5	-27	3.1	56%	-0.04	-55.6	1.11%	0	0.1	42	0
24	May_17_2016	49.57	50.65	49.81	49.76			49.85(-0.93%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	0.1	-20	-10000	-3	-72	2.11	57%	-0.04	-61.9	1.09%	0	-0.7	28	0
25	May_16_2016	49.59	50.76	49.83	49.85			50.32(2%)	DP	OpenShort	-65	0.4	-18	-10000	4	-84	1.83	63%		-59.1	1.12%	0	-0.4	36	0
i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD

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