Trading Signals: SMH Stock Price Prediction and Forecast

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Wed. Mar. 16, 2016

Trading Signals: SMH Stock Price Prediction and Forecast (Mon. Feb. 10, 2014 - Fri. Jun. 21, 2024)

(Semiconductor sector etf)
SMH latest price $51.6472 (1.17%) ($50.8603 - $51.6952) on Wed. Mar. 16, 2016.

Trend Analysis and Forecast

Average Daily Percentage Swing   1.74% (three month average)
RSI   77
Latest Price   $51.6472(1.17%)
Stocks Behave Similarly   Similar Stock List
Top Holdings   Top Holding List
Daily Trend   SMH advances 0.6% a day on average for past five trading days.
Weekly Trend   SMH advances 2.1% a week on average for past two weeks.
Market Behavior   Broad based rally for large cap. Broad based rally for small cap.
Correlated ETFs   Broad market will support SMH advance at 0% a week (0% probability)
QQQ(75%)    IVW(73%)    IWF(73%)    XLK(71%)    SPY(70%)
Factors Impacting SMH price   SMH will decline at least -0.87% in a week (0% probabilities).
VIXM(-17%)    UUP(-14%)    TLT(-10%)    IPO(-6%)    IGOV(-4%)
Explanation The rally is not sustainable and not supported by the broad market.

Relative Volatility (options are extremely cheap)

Market Trend Strength   -0.87% (StdDev 1.74%)
Hourly BBV 0 ()
Intraday Trend 1.5%

5 Day Moving Average   $51.16(0.95%)
10 Day Moving Average   $50.77(1.73%)
20 Day Moving Average   $49.58(4.17%)
To recent high   -1.5%
To recent low   17.9%
Market Cap   $N/A

$. SMH price fluctuates within 3.11% (three month std-dev: 1.74%) daily (68% of days).

Sample size 0 Average positive next day return: 0%(0%) Average negative next day return: 0%(0%) Sample size 0 Average positive next three day return: 0%(0%) Average negative next three day return: %(0%) Sample size 0 Average positive next weekly return: 0%(0%) Average negative next weekly return: 0%(0%)

Analysis News Options Weekly Chart Daily Chart 2 Month Daily Chart

> 20160416

i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD
1	Mar_16_2016	49.47	49.58	50.77	51.16			51.65(1.17%)	UT	HoldLong	65	0.3	24	-10000	7	75	3.4	46%	0	97.4	1.74%	0	1.3	77	0
2	Mar_15_2016	49.47	49.36	50.61	50.87			51.05(-0.34%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.1	25	-10000	6	80	1.29	47%	0	96.9	1.73%	0	1.1	78	0
3	Mar_14_2016	49.47	49.12	50.5	50.62			51.23(-0.45%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.4	24	-10000	2	88	2.15	47%	-0.04	98.4	1.74%	0	1.3	82	0
4	Mar_11_2016	49.49	48.8	50.22	50.53			51.46(2.02%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.5	26	-10000	4	90	2.22	46%	-0.02	84.5	1.75%	0	1.5	73	0
5	Mar_10_2016	49.5	48.43	49.94	50.36			50.44(0.54%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0	24	-10000	1	94	2.68	44%	0	65.6	1.74%	0	1	74	0

6	Mar_9_2016	49.5	48.12	49.73	50.32			50.17(0.71%)	UT	OpenLong	75	-0.1	26	-10000	0	103	1.57	44%	0	55.6	1.74%	0	1	73	0
7	Mar_8_2016	49.5	47.85	49.5	50.31			49.81(-1.89%)	UD	OpenLong	75	-0.2	27	-10000	-0	109	3.58	44%	-0.02	50.8	1.74%	0	0.9	70	0
8	Mar_7_2016	49.51	47.61	49.25	50.33			50.77(0.38%)	UT	HoldLong	65	0.2	39	-10000	11	124	3.25	45%	0	44.3	1.73%	0	1.5	83	0
9	Mar_4_2016	49.51	47.36	48.96	49.85			50.58(0.65%)	UT	HoldLong	65	0.4	39	-10000	9	128	3.1	47%	0.02	36.4	1.73%	0	1.6	86	0
10	Mar_3_2016	49.5	47.19	48.61	49.45			50.26(0.23%)	UT	HoldLong	65	0.4	41	-10000	9	137	1.8	47%	0	37.7	1.75%	0	1.6	87	0

11	Mar_2_2016	49.5	46.99	48.29	49.05			50.14(0.52%)	UT	HoldLong	65	0.6	45	-10000	11	145	1.28	47%	0.04	36.6	1.75%	0	1.8	84	0
12	Mar_1_2016	49.48	46.8	47.99	48.57			49.88(3.07%)	UT	HoldLong	65	0.8	47	-10000	13	147	1.97	47%	0	31.8	1.75%	0	1.9	76	0
13	Feb_29_2016	49.48	46.67	47.61	48.02			48.39(-0.34%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.3	35	-10000	2	135	2.33	44%	0	30.1	1.7%	0	1.2	71	0
14	Feb_26_2016	49.48	46.62	47.26	47.93			48.56(0.56%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.4	37	-10000	7	128	2.4	44%	-0.04	32.5	1.7%	0	1.4	63	0
15	Feb_25_2016	49.5	46.48	46.8	47.65			48.29(1.17%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.5	27	-10000	6	91	1.3	44%	0	28.5	1.72%	0	1.4	51	0

16	Feb_24_2016	49.5	46.36	46.38	47.41			47.73(1.28%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.3	18	-10000	2	64	3.05	44%	-0.02	27.9	1.71%	0	1.1	54	0
17	Feb_23_2016	49.51	46.3	46.08	47.32			47.13(-1.68%)	UD	OpenLong	75	-0.2	16	-10000	5	50	1.66	44%	-0.02	32.1	1.7%	0	0.7	52	0
18	Feb_22_2016	49.52	46.24	45.86	47.12			47.93(1.63%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.7	18	-10000	16	25	2.58	44%	0.02	33.5	1.7%	0	1.4	48	0
19	Feb_19_2016	49.51	46.17	45.63	46.47			47.17(0.18%)	N/A	N/A	0	0.6	10	-10000	18	-15	2.63	44%	0	17.8	1.68%	0	0.9	46	0
20	Feb_18_2016	49.51	46.1	45.64	45.79			47.08(-0.41%)	N/A	N/A	0	1.1	4	-10000	16	-33	1.43	44%	0.02	1.2	1.69%	0	0.9	55	0

21	Feb_17_2016	49.5	46.01	45.57	45.2			47.27(2.39%)	DP	OpenShort	-65	1.8	-4	-10000	13	-56	2.01	44%	0.04	-21.8	1.69%	0	1.1	55	0
22	Feb_16_2016	49.48	45.9	45.47	44.69			46.17(3.4%)	DP	OpenShort	-65	1.3	-16	-10000	7	-83	4.21	41%	0.08	-41.8	1.66%	0	0.2	48	0
23	Feb_12_2016	49.44	45.84	45.62	44.45			44.65(1.97%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	0.2	-28	-10000	-7	-92	2.22	37%	-0.02	-53.8	1.6%	0	-1	44	0
24	Feb_11_2016	49.45	45.96	45.91	44.7			43.79(-0.72%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.8	-36	-10000	-21	-81	4.02	34%	-0.04	-48.8	1.59%	0	-1.9	37	0
25	Feb_10_2016	49.47	46.09	46.15	45.46			44.1(-1.44%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-1.3	-22	-10000	-14	-46	2.39	34%		-47.1	1.58%	0	-1.9	44	0
i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD

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