Trading Signals: SMH Stock Price Prediction and Forecast

^ SMH: Intraday Hourly Forecast Similar Waves GapOpen Research Timing Gains Losses Strategies Practice

Tue. Jun. 16, 2015

Trading Signals: SMH Stock Price Prediction and Forecast (Mon. Feb. 10, 2014 - Fri. Jun. 28, 2024)

(Semiconductor sector etf)
SMH latest price $53.5750 (0.44%) ($53.0303 - $53.7018) on Tue. Jun. 16, 2015.

Trend Analysis and Forecast

Average Daily Percentage Swing   1.25% (three month average)
RSI   28
Latest Price   $53.5750(0.44%)
Stocks Behave Similarly   Similar Stock List
Top Holdings   Top Holding List
Daily Trend   SMH advances 0.2% a day on average for past five trading days.
Weekly Trend   SMH declines -1.9% a week on average for past two weeks.
Market Behavior   Value stock rally for large cap. Normal for small cap.
Correlated ETFs   Broad market will support SMH advance at 0% a week (0% probability)
QQQ(75%)    XLK(72%)    SPY(70%)    VT(68%)    XLY(64%)
Factors Impacting SMH price   SMH will decline at least -0.625% in a week (0% probabilities).
VIXM(-20%)    TLT(-12%)    UUP(-11%)    IGOV(-6%)    SHY(-3%)
Explanation The rally is not sustainable and not supported by the broad market.

Relative Volatility (options are extremely cheap)

Market Trend Strength   -0.625% (StdDev 1.25%)
Hourly BBV 0 ()
Intraday Trend 0.8%

Resistance Level   $54.32
5 Day Moving Average   $53.65(-0.14%)
10 Day Moving Average   $53.71(-0.25%)
20 Day Moving Average   $54.32(-1.37%)
To recent high   -4.6%
To recent low   6.3%
Market Cap   $N/A

$. SMH price fluctuates within 1.77% (three month std-dev: 1.25%) daily (68% of days).

Sample size 0 Average positive next day return: 0%(0%) Average negative next day return: 0%(0%) Sample size 0 Average positive next three day return: 0%(0%) Average negative next three day return: %(0%) Sample size 0 Average positive next weekly return: 0%(0%) Average negative next weekly return: 0%(0%)

Analysis News Options Weekly Chart Daily Chart 2 Month Daily Chart

> 20150716

i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD
1	Jun_16_2015	52.88	54.32	53.71	53.65			53.58(0.44%)	DT	HoldShort	-50	-0.1	-20	-10000	3	-90	1.63	65%	0.04	2.3	1.25%	0	-0.8	28	0
2	Jun_15_2015	52.86	54.35	53.86	53.55			53.34(-0.28%)	DT	HoldShort	-50	-0.2	-20	-10000	2	-86	2.52	65%	0.04	4	1.26%	0	-1.1	49	0
3	Jun_12_2015	52.84	54.37	54.11	53.48			53.49(-0.85%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	0	-22	-10000	-3	-79	1.5	65%	0.02	4.7	1.26%	0	-0.9	47	0
4	Jun_11_2015	52.83	54.38	54.36	53.58			53.95(0.12%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	0.4	-16	-10000	-1	-60	1.73	65%	0.06	11.7	1.26%	0	-0.5	50	0
5	Jun_10_2015	52.8	54.34	54.55	53.62			53.89(1.52%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	0.3	-16	-10000	-6	-47	2.92	60%	0.06	16.1	1.26%	0	-0.5	50	0

6	Jun_9_2015	52.77	54.29	54.75	53.81			53.08(0.11%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	-0.7	-16	-10000	-12	-27	3.77	58%	0	21.9	1.27%	0	-1.2	46	0
7	Jun_8_2015	52.77	54.31	54.86	54.23			53.02(-1.79%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-1.2	-16	-10000	-17	-11	4.33	58%	0.06	33.2	1.27%	0	-1.3	45	0
8	Jun_5_2015	52.74	54.33	55.01	54.82			53.99(-0.29%)	N/A	N/A	0	-0.8	-4	-10000	-13	25	1.67	59%	0.08	47.9	1.26%	0	-0.3	57	0
9	Jun_4_2015	52.7	54.27	55.05	55.26			54.15(-1.18%)	UD	OpenLong	65	-1	6	-10000	-10	55	3.29	59%	0.08	59.7	1.26%	0	-0.1	59	0
10	Jun_3_2015	52.66	54.19	55.07	55.61			54.8(-0.7%)	UD	OpenLong	65	-0.7	17	-10000	-6	85	1.75	56%	0.1	63.4	1.25%	0	0.5	69	0

11	Jun_2_2015	52.61	54.07	55	55.83			55.18(-1.43%)	UD	OpenLong	75	-0.5	34	-10000	8	112	2.85	59%	0.11	63.7	1.27%	0	0.9	75	0
12	Jun_1_2015	52.55	53.97	54.9	55.56			55.98(-0.35%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.3	35	-10000	10	108	3.65	62%	0.1	59.9	1.3%	0	1.7	78	0
13	May_29_2015	52.5	53.84	54.66	55.22			56.18(0.44%)	UT	HoldLong	65	0.9	33	-10000	11	98	5.91	62%	0.1	61.3	1.3%	0	2.1	80	0
14	May_28_2015	52.45	53.63	54.38	54.83			55.93(0.13%)	UT	HoldLong	65	1.1	29	-10000	10	87	6.96	62%	0.13	51.6	1.31%	0	2.3	81	0
15	May_27_2015	52.38	53.45	54.08	54.47			55.86(3.73%)	UT	HoldLong	65	1.6	28	-10000	11	77	7.72	62%	0.13	41.8	1.32%	0	2.7	83	0

16	May_26_2015	52.31	53.3	53.76	54.09			53.85(-0.8%)	UD	OpenLong	65	-0.4	15	-10000	-1	63	2.2	57%	0.1	40.6	1.24%	0	0.8	74	0
17	May_22_2015	52.26	53.26	53.69	54.13			54.28(0.09%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.2	20	-10000	4	68	0.87	60%	0.04	48.4	1.24%	0	1.5	60	0
18	May_21_2015	52.24	53.17	53.57	54			54.23(0.19%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.4	18	-10000	4	58	1.41	60%	0.06	51.3	1.25%	0	1.7	55	0
19	May_20_2015	52.21	53.11	53.41	53.85			54.13(0.3%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.5	20	-10000	7	58	1.52	60%	0.04	51.4	1.26%	0	1.8	68	0
20	May_19_2015	52.19	53.09	53.23	53.62			53.97(-0.17%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.6	16	-10000	7	44	2.01	60%	0.06	50	1.26%	0	1.6	60	0

21	May_18_2015	52.16	53.02	53.06	53.37			54.06(0.88%)	UT	OpenLong	75	1.4	11	-10000	6	25	1.78	60%	0.04	47.9	1.26%	0	2	57	0
22	May_15_2015	52.14	52.94	52.97	53.18			53.59(0.14%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.8	7	-10000	3	17	3.32	60%	0.02	38.7	1.25%	0	1.3	54	0
23	May_14_2015	52.13	52.86	52.95	53.09			53.52(1.03%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.9	9	-10000	5	21	4.15	60%	0.04	28.1	1.26%	0	1.4	57	0
24	May_13_2015	52.11	52.86	52.81	52.91			52.97(0.5%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.1	4	-10000	4	3	2.17	60%	0.02	21.2	1.26%	0	0.3	48	0
25	May_12_2015	52.1	52.82	52.78	52.77			52.71(-0.76%)	DT	HoldShort	-50	-0.1	-1	-10000	3	-14	3.16	62%		19.8	1.26%	0	-0.2	42	0
i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD

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