Trading Signals: SMH Stock Price Prediction and Forecast

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Mon. Jun. 1, 2015

Trading Signals: SMH Stock Price Prediction and Forecast (Mon. Feb. 10, 2014 - Thu. Jun. 27, 2024)

(Semiconductor sector etf)
SMH latest price $55.9795 (-0.35%) ($55.6790 - $56.4773) on Mon. Jun. 1, 2015.

Trend Analysis and Forecast

Average Daily Percentage Swing   1.3% (three month average)
RSI   78
Latest Price   $55.9795(-0.35%)
Stocks Behave Similarly   Similar Stock List
Top Holdings   Top Holding List
Daily Trend   SMH advances 0.6% a day on average for past five trading days.
Weekly Trend   SMH advances 2.3% a week on average for past two weeks.
Market Behavior   Normal for large cap. Normal for small cap.
Correlated ETFs   Broad market will support SMH advance at 0% a week (0% probability)
QQQ(75%)    XLK(72%)    SPY(70%)    VT(68%)    XLY(64%)
Factors Impacting SMH price   SMH will decline at least -0.65% in a week (0% probabilities).
VIXM(-20%)    TLT(-12%)    UUP(-11%)    IGOV(-6%)    SHY(-3%)
Explanation The rally is not sustainable and not supported by the broad market.

Relative Volatility (options are extremely cheap)

Market Trend Strength   -0.65% (StdDev 1.3%)
Hourly BBV 0 ()
Intraday Trend -0.6%

5 Day Moving Average   $55.56(0.76%)
10 Day Moving Average   $54.9(1.97%)
20 Day Moving Average   $53.97(3.72%)
To recent high   -0.4%
To recent low   11%
Market Cap   $N/A

$. SMH price fluctuates within 2.22% (three month std-dev: 1.3%) daily (68% of days).

Sample size 0 Average positive next day return: 0%(0%) Average negative next day return: 0%(0%) Sample size 0 Average positive next three day return: 0%(0%) Average negative next three day return: %(0%) Sample size 0 Average positive next weekly return: 0%(0%) Average negative next weekly return: 0%(0%)

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> 20150701

i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD
1	Jun_1_2015	52.55	53.97	54.9	55.56			55.98(-0.35%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.3	35	-10000	10	108	3.65	62%	0.1	59.9	1.3%	0	1.7	78	0
2	May_29_2015	52.5	53.84	54.66	55.22			56.18(0.44%)	UT	HoldLong	65	0.9	33	-10000	11	98	5.91	62%	0.1	61.3	1.3%	0	2.1	80	0
3	May_28_2015	52.45	53.63	54.38	54.83			55.93(0.13%)	UT	HoldLong	65	1.1	29	-10000	10	87	6.96	62%	0.13	51.6	1.31%	0	2.3	81	0
4	May_27_2015	52.38	53.45	54.08	54.47			55.86(3.73%)	UT	HoldLong	65	1.6	28	-10000	11	77	7.72	62%	0.13	41.8	1.32%	0	2.7	83	0
5	May_26_2015	52.31	53.3	53.76	54.09			53.85(-0.8%)	UD	OpenLong	65	-0.4	15	-10000	-1	63	2.2	57%	0.1	40.6	1.24%	0	0.8	74	0

6	May_22_2015	52.26	53.26	53.69	54.13			54.28(0.09%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.2	20	-10000	4	68	0.87	60%	0.04	48.4	1.24%	0	1.5	60	0
7	May_21_2015	52.24	53.17	53.57	54			54.23(0.19%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.4	18	-10000	4	58	1.41	60%	0.06	51.3	1.25%	0	1.7	55	0
8	May_20_2015	52.21	53.11	53.41	53.85			54.13(0.3%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.5	20	-10000	7	58	1.52	60%	0.04	51.4	1.26%	0	1.8	68	0
9	May_19_2015	52.19	53.09	53.23	53.62			53.97(-0.17%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.6	16	-10000	7	44	2.01	60%	0.06	50	1.26%	0	1.6	60	0
10	May_18_2015	52.16	53.02	53.06	53.37			54.06(0.88%)	UT	OpenLong	75	1.4	11	-10000	6	25	1.78	60%	0.04	47.9	1.26%	0	2	57	0

11	May_15_2015	52.14	52.94	52.97	53.18			53.59(0.14%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.8	7	-10000	3	17	3.32	60%	0.02	38.7	1.25%	0	1.3	54	0
12	May_14_2015	52.13	52.86	52.95	53.09			53.52(1.03%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.9	9	-10000	5	21	4.15	60%	0.04	28.1	1.26%	0	1.4	57	0
13	May_13_2015	52.11	52.86	52.81	52.91			52.97(0.5%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.1	4	-10000	4	3	2.17	60%	0.02	21.2	1.26%	0	0.3	48	0
14	May_12_2015	52.1	52.82	52.78	52.77			52.71(-0.76%)	DT	HoldShort	-50	-0.1	-1	-10000	3	-14	3.16	62%	0.02	19.8	1.26%	0	-0.2	42	0
15	May_11_2015	52.09	52.78	52.8	52.68			53.11(-0.04%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	0.9	-5	-10000	-1	-18	3.36	62%	0.04	17.6	1.27%	0	0.7	52	0

16	May_8_2015	52.07	52.75	52.79	52.72			53.13(0.95%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	0.9	-5	-10000	-2	-12	4.06	63%	0.04	26.4	1.33%	0	0.8	55	0
17	May_7_2015	52.05	52.75	52.74	52.8			52.64(0.72%)	N/A	N/A	0	-0.3	2	-10000	3	-1	3.47	63%	0.04	44.9	1.33%	0	-0.2	56	0
18	May_6_2015	52.03	52.73	52.79	52.7			52.26(-0.02%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.9	-3	-10000	-2	-4	4.48	63%	0.06	46.3	1.34%	0	-0.9	48	0
19	May_5_2015	52	52.72	52.94	52.77			52.27(-1.9%)	N/A	N/A	0	-0.9	-2	-10000	-4	4	6.14	63%	0.04	48.5	1.35%	0	-0.8	47	0
20	May_4_2015	51.98	52.7	53	52.92			53.28(-0.54%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.6	6	-10000	1	20	2.73	67%	0.06	48.1	1.33%	0	1	59	0

21	May_1_2015	51.95	52.62	52.92	52.88			53.58(2.85%)	UT	OpenLong	75	1.2	9	-10000	5	20	4.15	68%	0.06	43.4	1.32%	0	1.7	57	0
22	Apr_30_2015	51.92	52.52	52.77	52.69			52.09(-1.04%)	N/A	N/A	0	-1.1	-5	-10000	-7	1	3.18	61%	0.02	44.8	1.28%	0	-0.8	46	0
23	Apr_29_2015	51.91	52.5	52.84	52.91			52.64(-0.73%)	N/A	N/A	0	-0.5	-1	-10000	-6	14	4.02	61%	0.02	58	1.31%	0	0.2	52	0
24	Apr_28_2015	51.9	52.47	52.87	53.13			53.02(-0.07%)	UD	OpenLong	75	-0.2	10	-10000	1	35	3.25	61%	0.02	57.9	1.3%	0	0.9	58	0
25	Apr_27_2015	51.89	52.43	52.77	53.09			53.06(0.8%)	UT	OpenLong	75	-0.1	12	-10000	4	37	13.78	58%		47.8	1.31%	0	1.1	60	0
i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD

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