Trading Signals: SMH Stock Price Prediction and Forecast

^ SMH: Intraday Hourly Forecast Similar Waves GapOpen Research Timing Gains Losses Strategies Practice

Fri. Apr. 10, 2015

Trading Signals: SMH Stock Price Prediction and Forecast (Mon. Feb. 10, 2014 - Tue. Jun. 25, 2024)

(Semiconductor sector etf)
SMH latest price $52.8143 (0.59%) ($52.4385 - $52.8143) on Fri. Apr. 10, 2015.

Trend Analysis and Forecast

Average Daily Percentage Swing   1.29% (three month average)
RSI   40
Latest Price   $52.8143(0.59%)
Stocks Behave Similarly   Similar Stock List
Top Holdings   Top Holding List
Daily Trend   SMH advances 0.5% a day on average for past five trading days.
Weekly Trend   SMH declines -0.2% a week on average for past two weeks.
Market Behavior   Value stock rally for large cap. Normal for small cap.
Correlated ETFs   Broad market will support SMH advance at 0% a week (0% probability)
QQQ(75%)    XLK(72%)    SPY(70%)    VT(68%)    IWM(63%)
Factors Impacting SMH price   SMH will decline at least -0.645% in a week (0% probabilities).
VIXM(-20%)    TLT(-12%)    UUP(-10%)    IGOV(-6%)    SHY(-3%)
Explanation The rally is not sustainable and not supported by the broad market.

Relative Volatility (options are extremely cheap)

Market Trend Strength   -0.645% (StdDev 1.29%)
Hourly BBV 0 ()
Intraday Trend 0.7%

5 Day Moving Average   $52.15(1.27%)
10 Day Moving Average   $52.03(1.51%)
20 Day Moving Average   $52.37(0.85%)
To recent high   -3.8%
To recent low   6.6%
Market Cap   $N/A

$. SMH price fluctuates within 1.83% (three month std-dev: 1.29%) daily (68% of days).

Sample size 0 Average positive next day return: 0%(0%) Average negative next day return: 0%(0%) Sample size 0 Average positive next three day return: 0%(0%) Average negative next three day return: %(0%) Sample size 0 Average positive next weekly return: 0%(0%) Average negative next weekly return: 0%(0%)

Analysis News Options Weekly Chart Daily Chart 2 Month Daily Chart

> 20150510

i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD
1	Apr_10_2015	51.72	52.37	52.03	52.15			52.81(0.59%)	N/A	N/A	0	0.7	4	-10000	7	-7	1.51	53%	0.06	-10.4	1.29%	0	0.5	40	0
2	Apr_9_2015	51.69	52.33	51.79	51.9			52.5(0.99%)	DP	OpenShort	-65	0.6	-7	-10000	6	-44	2.61	53%	0.08	-26.2	1.3%	0	0.2	44	0
3	Apr_8_2015	51.65	52.33	51.62	51.69			51.99(0.49%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	0.3	-20	-10000	0	-79	1.92	56%	0.06	-39.9	1.29%	0	-0.3	42	0
4	Apr_7_2015	51.62	52.32	51.73	51.68			51.73(0.05%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	0.1	-22	-10000	-4	-77	1.88	56%	0.08	-49.7	1.33%	0	-0.6	44	0
5	Apr_6_2015	51.58	52.39	51.91	51.82			51.71(0.25%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	-0.1	-18	-10000	-2	-66	3.28	53%	0.14	-54.6	1.34%	0	-0.7	42	0

6	Apr_2_2015	51.51	52.46	52.14	51.89			51.57(0.27%)	DT	HoldShort	-50	-0.3	-6	-10000	7	-46	2.87	50%	0.08	-53.5	1.38%	0	-0.9	46	0
7	Apr_1_2015	51.47	52.58	52.32	51.66			51.43(-0.98%)	DT	HoldShort	-50	-0.2	-9	-10000	4	-49	3.18	50%	0.06	-59.5	1.38%	0	-1.2	49	0
8	Mar_31_2015	51.44	52.7	52.51	51.52			51.94(-1%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	0.4	-18	-10000	-7	-52	2.74	50%	0.08	-62.1	1.39%	0	-0.8	49	0
9	Mar_30_2015	51.4	52.81	52.61	51.79			52.47(0.85%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	0.6	-14	-10000	-7	-35	5.05	50%	0.1	-51.2	1.38%	0	-0.3	54	0
10	Mar_27_2015	51.35	52.92	52.67	52.05			52.03(3.2%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	-0	-15	-10000	-12	-25	7.8	50%	0.08	-37.3	1.37%	0	-0.8	45	0

11	Mar_26_2015	51.31	53	52.73	52.49			50.41(-0.72%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-1.9	-16	-10000	-17	-13	11.84	46%	0.04	-25.2	1.32%	0	-2.4	35	0
12	Mar_25_2015	51.29	53.18	52.93	53.08			50.78(-4.67%)	N/A	N/A	0	-2.6	-10	-10000	-14	3	10.44	46%	0.06	-8.4	1.32%	0	-2.7	33	0
13	Mar_24_2015	51.26	53.33	53.12	53.59			53.27(-0.91%)	UD	OpenLong	75	-0.4	9	-10000	3	25	2.61	53%	0.1	12.6	1.18%	0	-0.1	44	0
14	Mar_23_2015	51.21	53.36	53	53.51			53.75(-0.88%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.3	4	-10000	4	3	2.75	53%	0.12	14.6	1.17%	0	0.5	46	0
15	Mar_20_2015	51.15	53.32	52.92	53.39			54.23(1.58%)	N/A	N/A	0	1.2	4	-10000	11	-16	3.1	55%	0.14	10.4	1.18%	0	1.3	41	0

16	Mar_19_2015	51.08	53.27	52.8	53.05			53.39(0.12%)	DP	OpenShort	-65	0.5	-3	-10000	9	-39	2.37	53%	0.14	0.8	1.17%	0	0.2	49	0
17	Mar_18_2015	51.01	53.25	52.84	52.78			53.32(0.92%)	DP	OpenShort	-65	0.8	-9	-10000	6	-55	5.01	55%	0.14	-3.1	1.17%	0	0.1	46	0
18	Mar_17_2015	50.94	53.24	52.88	52.59			52.83(-0.67%)	DP	OpenShort	-65	0.3	-11	-10000	6	-63	1.34	57%	0.12	-1.5	1.19%	0	-0.6	45	0
19	Mar_16_2015	50.88	53.26	52.99	52.41			53.19(1.32%)	DP	OpenShort	-65	1.1	-18	-10000	1	-73	2.94	57%	0.16	12	1.21%	0	-0.1	44	0
20	Mar_13_2015	50.8	53.25	53.14	52.39			52.49(0.83%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	0.1	-20	-10000	-5	-63	3.17	56%	0.14	25.6	1.2%	0	-1.1	49	0

21	Mar_12_2015	50.73	53.25	53.25	52.53			52.06(-0.56%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.7	-23	-10000	-12	-56	4.6	56%	0.16	42	1.21%	0	-1.7	44	0
22	Mar_11_2015	50.65	53.27	53.43	52.9			52.35(0.74%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	-0.8	-15	-10000	-10	-31	3.64	56%	0.14	63.7	1.22%	0	-1.3	47	0
23	Mar_10_2015	50.58	53.25	53.57	53.22			51.97(-2.04%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-1.6	-12	-10000	-12	-11	4.78	54%	0.18	78.8	1.22%	0	-1.6	45	0
24	Mar_9_2015	50.49	53.18	53.57	53.63			53.05(-0.35%)	N/A	N/A	0	-0.6	-5	-10000	-12	17	1.89	57%	0.2	74	1.2%	0	-0.1	51	0
25	Mar_6_2015	50.39	53.07	53.79	54			53.24(-1.25%)	UD	OpenLong	65	-0.7	9	-10000	-2	40	1.8	57%		79.5	1.21%	0	0.1	54	0
i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD

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