Trading Signals: SMH Stock Price Prediction and Forecast

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Mon. Dec. 29, 2014

Trading Signals: SMH Stock Price Prediction and Forecast (Mon. Feb. 10, 2014 - Tue. Jun. 25, 2024)

(Semiconductor sector etf)
SMH latest price $51.8374 (-0.27%) ($51.6965 - $52.0628) on Mon. Dec. 29, 2014.

Trend Analysis and Forecast

Average Daily Percentage Swing   1.48% (three month average)
RSI   49
Latest Price   $51.8374(-0.27%)
Stocks Behave Similarly   Similar Stock List
Top Holdings   Top Holding List
Daily Trend   SMH advances 0.3% a day on average for past five trading days.
Weekly Trend   SMH advances 0.9% a week on average for past two weeks.
Market Behavior   Normal for large cap. Normal for small cap.
Correlated ETFs   Broad market will support SMH advance at 0% a week (0% probability)
QQQ(75%)    XLK(72%)    SPY(70%)    VT(68%)    IWM(63%)
Factors Impacting SMH price   SMH will decline at least -0.74% in a week (0% probabilities).
VIXM(-20%)    TLT(-12%)    UUP(-10%)    IGOV(-6%)    SHY(-3%)
Explanation The rally is not sustainable and not supported by the broad market.

Relative Volatility (options are extremely cheap)

Market Trend Strength   -0.74% (StdDev 1.48%)
Hourly BBV 0 ()
Intraday Trend -0.4%

5 Day Moving Average   $51.95(-0.22%)
10 Day Moving Average   $51.26(1.13%)
20 Day Moving Average   $51.35(0.95%)
To recent high   -1.2%
To recent low   24.3%
Market Cap   $N/A

$. SMH price fluctuates within 1.52% (three month std-dev: 1.48%) daily (68% of days).

Sample size 0 Average positive next day return: 0%(0%) Average negative next day return: 0%(0%) Sample size 0 Average positive next three day return: 0%(0%) Average negative next three day return: %(0%) Sample size 0 Average positive next weekly return: 0%(0%) Average negative next weekly return: 0%(0%)

Analysis News Options Weekly Chart Daily Chart 2 Month Daily Chart

> 20150129

i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD
1	Dec_29_2014	48.02	51.35	51.26	51.95			51.84(-0.27%)	UD	OpenLong	75	-0.1	13	-10000	4	38	1.06	62%	0.17	42.8	1.48%	0	0.6	49	0
2	Dec_26_2014	47.94	51.33	51.11	51.81			51.98(-0.09%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.2	7	-10000	3	17	0.65	60%	0.21	50	1.51%	0	0.8	44	0
3	Dec_24_2014	47.84	51.29	51.01	51.69			52.03(0.25%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.4	8	-10000	8	7	0.63	58%	0.15	61.5	1.54%	0	1	48	0
4	Dec_23_2014	47.77	51.2	50.88	51.37			51.89(-0.22%)	N/A	N/A	0	0.7	6	-10000	12	-12	1.48	58%	0.13	56.6	1.54%	0	0.9	48	0
5	Dec_22_2014	47.71	51.12	50.84	50.89			52.01(1.66%)	N/A	N/A	0	1.4	-0	-10000	11	-34	2.45	57%	0.15	50.3	1.54%	0	1.1	51	0

6	Dec_19_2014	47.64	51.02	50.79	50.47			51.16(-0.36%)	DP	OpenShort	-65	0.9	-10	-10000	4	-50	2.64	54%	0.13	42.1	1.54%	0	0.2	52	0
7	Dec_18_2014	47.58	50.95	50.91	50.3			51.35(1.75%)	DP	OpenShort	-65	1.2	-13	-10000	1	-53	4.6	55%	0.11	42.6	1.54%	0	0.5	48	0
8	Dec_17_2014	47.53	50.83	50.96	50.25			50.46(1.99%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	0.2	-15	-10000	-2	-52	4.87	54%	0.11	40.8	1.54%	0	-0.4	45	0
9	Dec_16_2014	47.48	50.77	51.11	50.34			49.48(-0.84%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.8	-19	-10000	-11	-42	6.1	53%	0.08	44	1.52%	0	-1.2	48	0
10	Dec_15_2014	47.44	50.73	51.34	50.78			49.9(-0.87%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.8	-10	-10000	-9	-13	4.77	52%	0.08	52	1.53%	0	-0.7	51	0

11	Dec_12_2014	47.4	50.68	51.47	51.15			50.33(-1.49%)	N/A	N/A	0	-0.7	-6	-10000	-11	10	3.81	51%	0.08	60.1	1.53%	0	-0.3	57	0
12	Dec_11_2014	47.36	50.58	51.61	51.58			51.09(0.42%)	UD	OpenLong	65	-0.4	8	-10000	-5	45	1.76	51%	0.11	64.9	1.53%	0	0.4	66	0
13	Dec_10_2014	47.31	50.44	51.64	51.77			50.88(-1.55%)	UD	OpenLong	65	-0.6	14	-10000	-6	72	3.15	51%	0.08	63.9	1.52%	0	0.3	69	0
14	Dec_9_2014	47.27	50.31	51.59	51.77			51.68(-0.18%)	UD	OpenLong	75	-0.2	24	-10000	0	96	5.36	52%	0.08	66.3	1.51%	0	0.9	76	0
15	Dec_8_2014	47.23	50.14	51.46	51.99			51.77(-1.36%)	UD	OpenLong	75	-0.1	32	-10000	4	114	2.72	52%	0.11	66.9	1.51%	0	1.1	80	0

16	Dec_5_2014	47.18	49.95	51.28	51.84			52.49(0.84%)	UT	HoldLong	65	0.4	34	-10000	5	121	1.79	52%	0.13	64.2	1.5%	0	1.6	84	0
17	Dec_4_2014	47.12	49.73	51	51.65			52.05(0.14%)	UT	HoldLong	65	0.3	35	-10000	4	126	3.21	52%	0.11	65.6	1.5%	0	1.6	84	0
18	Dec_3_2014	47.07	49.54	50.68	51.49			51.98(0.58%)	UT	HoldLong	65	0.4	39	-10000	9	130	3.46	52%	0.11	72.6	1.5%	0	1.8	84	0
19	Dec_2_2014	47.02	49.33	50.38	51.14			51.68(1.37%)	UT	HoldLong	65	0.4	37	-10000	8	123	5.36	52%	0.11	76.1	1.5%	0	1.8	82	0
20	Dec_1_2014	46.97	49.14	50.05	50.85			50.98(-1.15%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.1	33	-10000	6	114	3.27	52%	0.09	82.1	1.49%	0	1.6	77	0

21	Nov_28_2014	46.93	48.97	49.81	50.63			51.58(0.67%)	UT	HoldLong	65	0.8	36	-10000	10	113	1.72	52%	0.11	90	1.49%	0	2.3	87	0
22	Nov_26_2014	46.88	48.79	49.46	50.24			51.23(2.02%)	UT	HoldLong	65	1	35	-10000	13	99	1.61	52%	0.09	100.5	1.47%	0	2.4	78	0
23	Nov_25_2014	46.84	48.56	49.13	49.76			50.22(-0.07%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.5	24	-10000	7	74	2.38	50%	0.09	105.7	1.45%	0	1.8	72	0
24	Nov_24_2014	46.8	48.38	48.91	49.5			50.26(0.76%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.8	25	-10000	11	66	1.79	50%	0.06	106.8	1.45%	0	2	75	0
25	Nov_21_2014	46.77	48.19	48.7	49.12			49.88(0.58%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.8	19	-10000	8	50	2.1	50%		105	1.45%	0	1.8	72	0
i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD

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