Trading Signals: SMH Stock Price Prediction and Forecast

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Thu. Nov. 20, 2014

Trading Signals: SMH Stock Price Prediction and Forecast (Mon. Feb. 10, 2014 - Fri. Jun. 21, 2024)

(Semiconductor sector etf)
SMH latest price $49.5902 (1.5%) ($48.4945 - $49.6273) on Thu. Nov. 20, 2014.

Trend Analysis and Forecast

Average Daily Percentage Swing   1.45% (three month average)
RSI   73
Latest Price   $49.5902(1.5%)
Stocks Behave Similarly   Similar Stock List
Top Holdings   Top Holding List
Daily Trend   SMH advances 0.6% a day on average for past five trading days.
Weekly Trend   SMH advances 0.9% a week on average for past two weeks.
Market Behavior   Normal for large cap. Normal for small cap.
Correlated ETFs   Broad market will support SMH advance at 0% a week (0% probability)
QQQ(75%)    XLK(72%)    SPY(70%)    VT(68%)    XLY(64%)
Factors Impacting SMH price   SMH will decline at least -0.725% in a week (0% probabilities).
VIXM(-21%)    TLT(-12%)    UUP(-10%)    IGOV(-6%)    SHY(-3%)
Explanation The rally is not sustainable and not supported by the broad market.

Relative Volatility (options are extremely cheap)

Market Trend Strength   -0.725% (StdDev 1.45%)
Hourly BBV 0 ()
Intraday Trend 1.9%

5 Day Moving Average   $48.85(1.52%)
10 Day Moving Average   $48.5(2.25%)
20 Day Moving Average   $47.98(3.36%)
To recent high   0%
To recent low   18.9%
Market Cap   $N/A

$. SMH price fluctuates within 2.13% (three month std-dev: 1.45%) daily (68% of days).

Sample size 0 Average positive next day return: 0%(0%) Average negative next day return: 0%(0%) Sample size 0 Average positive next three day return: 0%(0%) Average negative next three day return: %(0%) Sample size 0 Average positive next weekly return: 0%(0%) Average negative next weekly return: 0%(0%)

Analysis News Options Weekly Chart Daily Chart 2 Month Daily Chart

> 20141220

i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD
1	Nov_20_2014	46.74	47.98	48.5	48.85			49.59(1.5%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.7	16	-10000	8	39	1.9	50%	0.06	102.3	1.45%	0	1.6	73	0
2	Nov_19_2014	46.71	47.78	48.35	48.56			48.86(-0.17%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.3	10	-10000	5	26	1.27	49%	0.04	93.7	1.44%	0	1	59	0
3	Nov_18_2014	46.69	47.58	48.29	48.39			48.94(1.29%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.5	12	-10000	5	31	2.48	49%	0.06	94.8	1.44%	0	1.1	74	0
4	Nov_17_2014	46.66	47.41	48.19	48.23			48.32(-0.5%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.1	8	-10000	0	33	1.6	49%	0.06	90.2	1.44%	0	0.7	71	0
5	Nov_14_2014	46.63	47.2	48.16	48.22			48.56(0.87%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.2	15	-10000	4	46	1.84	49%	0.06	87.3	1.44%	0	0.9	75	0

6	Nov_13_2014	46.6	46.96	48.16	48.08			48.14(0.27%)	UD	OpenLong	65	0	13	-10000	-1	55	1.64	50%	0.04	83.7	1.43%	0	0.7	78	0
7	Nov_12_2014	46.58	46.74	48.08	48.11			48.01(-0.21%)	UD	OpenLong	65	-0.1	18	-10000	-2	79	0.7	50%	0.06	71.7	1.44%	0	0.7	80	0
8	Nov_11_2014	46.55	46.48	47.96	48.17			48.11(-0.29%)	UD	OpenLong	75	-0	26	-10000	1	101	0.78	51%	0.04	59.2	1.44%	0	0.8	84	0
9	Nov_10_2014	46.53	46.22	47.82	48.14			48.25(0.76%)	UT	HoldLong	65	0.1	29	-10000	1	112	1.62	51%	0.06	48.8	1.45%	0	1	76	0
10	Nov_7_2014	46.5	45.9	47.65	48.1			47.89(-0.77%)	UD	OpenLong	75	-0.1	34	-10000	1	134	3.18	50%	0.04	37.4	1.45%	0	0.9	81	0

11	Nov_6_2014	46.48	45.63	47.45	48.07			48.26(-0.12%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.1	39	-10000	1	154	2.58	50%	0.04	29.2	1.45%	0	1.2	85	0
12	Nov_5_2014	46.46	45.46	47.17	48.04			48.32(0.68%)	UT	HoldLong	65	0.1	52	-10000	10	177	2.84	48%	0.06	28.5	1.45%	0	1.4	86	0
13	Nov_4_2014	46.43	45.35	46.83	47.71			47.99(-0.04%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.1	51	-10000	8	181	1.12	48%	0.04	25.3	1.46%	0	1.4	88	0
14	Nov_3_2014	46.41	45.2	46.56	47.44			48.01(0.56%)	UT	HoldLong	65	0.3	56	-10000	9	196	2.29	48%	0.06	17.6	1.46%	0	1.5	88	0
15	Oct_31_2014	46.38	45.09	46.17	47.14			47.74(-0.83%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.3	61	-10000	12	207	5.15	46%	0.06	10.6	1.46%	0	1.5	89	0

16	Oct_30_2014	46.35	45.01	45.75	46.74			48.14(3.16%)	UT	HoldLong	65	0.8	62	-10000	16	201	1.64	48%	0.09	4.7	1.48%	0	1.8	84	0
17	Oct_29_2014	46.31	44.89	45.28	46.19			46.67(0.06%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.3	50	-10000	12	165	3	45%	0.04	-7.3	1.44%	0	1.1	55	0
18	Oct_28_2014	46.29	44.86	44.88	45.81			46.64(0.26%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.5	35	-10000	8	114	2.98	45%	0.04	-18	1.44%	0	1.1	49	0
19	Oct_27_2014	46.27	44.87	44.48	45.55			46.52(1.68%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.6	32	-10000	16	81	2.24	45%	0.04	-21.9	1.44%	0	1	53	0
20	Oct_24_2014	46.25	44.91	44	45.04			45.75(0.84%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.4	14	-10000	14	15	2.42	41%	0.04	-30.3	1.44%	0	0.5	46	0

21	Oct_23_2014	46.23	44.93	43.65	44.6			45.37(1.29%)	DP	OpenShort	-65	0.4	-3	-10000	11	-46	3.59	39%	0.02	-40.8	1.44%	0	0.2	44	0
22	Oct_22_2014	46.22	45	43.61	44.24			44.79(-1.19%)	DP	OpenShort	-65	0.3	-8	-10000	14	-72	4.98	40%	0.02	-48.2	1.45%	0	-0.1	43	0
23	Oct_21_2014	46.21	45.15	43.72	43.8			45.33(3.08%)	DP	OpenShort	-65	0.8	-10	-10000	18	-94	4.41	40%	0.04	-53.6	1.45%	0	0.1	44	0
24	Oct_20_2014	46.19	45.25	43.7	43.25			43.97(0.96%)	DP	OpenShort	-65	0.4	-25	-10000	15	-146	3.54	37%	0.02	-60.5	1.4%	0	-0.6	33	0
25	Oct_17_2014	46.18	45.43	43.91	42.8			43.56(0%)	DP	OpenShort	-65	0.4	-41	-10000	8	-186	3.83	36%		-64.4	1.4%	0	-0.9	30	0
i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD

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