Trading Signals: SMH Stock Price Prediction and Forecast

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Tue. Jun. 3, 2014

Trading Signals: SMH Stock Price Prediction and Forecast (Mon. Feb. 10, 2014 - Tue. Jun. 25, 2024)

(Semiconductor sector etf)
SMH latest price $43.8057 (1.24%) ($43.1094 - $43.8336) on Tue. Jun. 3, 2014.

Trend Analysis and Forecast

Average Daily Percentage Swing   1.04% (three month average)
RSI   73
Latest Price   $43.8057(1.24%)
Stocks Behave Similarly   Similar Stock List
Top Holdings   Top Holding List
Daily Trend   SMH advances 0.4% a day on average for past five trading days.
Weekly Trend   SMH advances 2.1% a week on average for past two weeks.
Market Behavior   Normal for large cap. Normal for small cap.
Correlated ETFs   Broad market will support SMH advance at 0% a week (0% probability)
QQQ(75%)    XLK(72%)    SPY(70%)    VT(68%)    IWM(63%)
Factors Impacting SMH price   SMH will decline at least -0.52% in a week (0% probabilities).
VIXM(-21%)    TLT(-12%)    UUP(-9%)    IGOV(-6%)    SHY(-4%)
Explanation The rally is not sustainable and not supported by the broad market.

Relative Volatility (options are extremely cheap)

Market Trend Strength   -0.52% (StdDev 1.04%)
Hourly BBV 0 ()
Intraday Trend 1.6%

5 Day Moving Average   $43.19(1.43%)
10 Day Moving Average   $42.67(2.66%)
20 Day Moving Average   $42.11(4.03%)
To recent high   0%
To recent low   8.8%
Market Cap   $N/A

$. SMH price fluctuates within 1.83% (three month std-dev: 1.04%) daily (68% of days).

Sample size 0 Average positive next day return: 0%(0%) Average negative next day return: 0%(0%) Sample size 0 Average positive next three day return: 0%(0%) Average negative next three day return: %(0%) Sample size 0 Average positive next weekly return: 0%(0%) Average negative next weekly return: 0%(0%)

Analysis News Options Weekly Chart Daily Chart 2 Month Daily Chart

> 20140703

i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD
1	Jun_3_2014	41.42	42.11	42.67	43.19			43.81(1.24%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.8	37	-10000	8	124	1.8	56%	0.07	65.6	1.04%	0	2.2	73	0
2	Jun_2_2014	41.39	41.97	42.46	43			43.27(0.56%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.4	34	-10000	9	107	1.34	54%	0.07	67.9	1.04%	0	1.9	63	0
3	May_30_2014	41.36	41.87	42.27	42.79			43.03(0.24%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.4	31	-10000	10	93	0.84	54%	0.05	66.2	1.05%	0	1.9	68	0
4	May_29_2014	41.34	41.77	42.07	42.57			42.92(0.02%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.6	25	-10000	10	71	0.66	54%	0.05	50.7	1.05%	0	2	64	0
5	May_28_2014	41.32	41.69	41.92	42.34			42.91(0.15%)	UT	OpenLong	75	1.1	24	-10000	13	57	1.38	54%	0.05	36.9	1.06%	0	2.4	66	0

6	May_27_2014	41.3	41.61	41.8	42.06			42.85(1.43%)	UT	OpenLong	75	1.8	18	-10000	10	43	0.89	54%	0.05	14.6	1.06%	0	2.9	67	0
7	May_23_2014	41.28	41.52	41.71	41.84			42.25(0.78%)	UT	OpenLong	75	1.3	16	-10000	8	38	1.08	54%	0.05	-13	1.03%	0	2.3	62	0
8	May_22_2014	41.26	41.46	41.62	41.67			41.92(0.36%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.7	13	-10000	8	27	0.63	54%	0.02	-32.6	1.04%	0	1.2	59	0
9	May_21_2014	41.25	41.49	41.58	41.49			41.77(0.58%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.7	7	-10000	3	17	2.06	54%	0	-29.8	1.05%	0	0.7	59	0
10	May_20_2014	41.25	41.51	41.54	41.43			41.53(-0.49%)	UT	HoldLong	50	0.2	1	-10000	-2	9	1.76	55%	0.02	-23.1	1.05%	0	0	51	0

11	May_19_2014	41.24	41.55	41.51	41.48			41.74(0.88%)	N/A	N/A	0	0.6	-0	-10000	-4	11	0.78	55%	0	-6.5	1.05%	0	0.4	56	0
12	May_16_2014	41.24	41.56	41.46	41.56			41.37(0.79%)	UT	OpenLong	75	-0.4	5	-10000	-0	20	0.77	55%	0.02	9.9	1.03%	0	-0.4	55	0
13	May_15_2014	41.23	41.58	41.45	41.57			41.05(-0.99%)	UD	OpenLong	65	-1.1	1	-10000	-5	19	1.06	55%	-0.02	15.3	1.04%	0	-1.2	49	0
14	May_14_2014	41.24	41.58	41.45	41.68			41.46(-0.82%)	UD	OpenLong	75	-0.5	4	-10000	1	14	0.51	56%	0.02	10.4	1.04%	0	-0.3	35	0
15	May_13_2014	41.23	41.61	41.47	41.65			41.8(-0.73%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.3	6	-10000	6	4	0.69	57%	0.02	1.9	1.04%	0	0.4	43	0

16	May_12_2014	41.22	41.58	41.42	41.53			42.11(1.66%)	N/A	N/A	0	1.3	1	-10000	8	-19	0.92	58%	0.02	-10.2	1.04%	0	1.2	44	0
17	May_9_2014	41.21	41.58	41.31	41.36			41.42(-0.45%)	DP	OpenShort	-65	0.1	-11	-10000	2	-49	1.36	58%	0	-30.1	1.02%	0	-0.2	40	0
18	May_8_2014	41.21	41.51	41.29	41.32			41.61(0.65%)	DP	OpenShort	-65	0.6	-12	-10000	4	-60	1.77	58%	0.02	-46	1.03%	0	0.2	46	0
19	May_7_2014	41.2	41.56	41.37	41.23			41.34(0.38%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	0.2	-14	-10000	-1	-54	2.34	58%	0	-46.9	1.03%	0	-0.4	51	0
20	May_6_2014	41.2	41.6	41.46	41.26			41.18(-0.16%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.1	-12	-10000	-1	-43	1.24	58%	0	-51.5	1.04%	0	-0.8	48	0

21	May_5_2014	41.2	41.62	41.58	41.28			41.24(0.02%)	DT	HoldShort	-50	-0.1	-6	-10000	1	-25	1.07	58%	0	-58.3	1.05%	0	-0.7	53	0
22	May_2_2014	41.2	41.65	41.66	41.28			41.23(0.16%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	-0.1	-3	-10000	0	-12	1.06	58%	0	-59.1	1.06%	0	-0.8	58	0
23	May_1_2014	41.2	41.73	41.73	41.26			41.17(-0.74%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.2	-13	-10000	-13	-11	1.52	58%	0	-42.4	1.07%	0	-1	49	0
24	Apr_30_2014	41.2	41.81	41.73	41.54			41.48(0.43%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	-0.1	-6	-10000	-7	-3	1.15	58%	0.02	-19.2	1.07%	0	-0.5	39	0
25	Apr_29_2014	41.19	41.88	41.76	41.7			41.3(0.43%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	-0.6	-8	-10000	-10	-2	1.04	58%		-4.5	1.08%	0	-0.9	43	0
i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD

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