Trading Signals: SMH Stock Price Prediction and Forecast

^ SMH: Intraday Hourly Forecast Similar Waves GapOpen Research Timing Gains Losses Strategies Practice

Thu. May. 29, 2014

Trading Signals: SMH Stock Price Prediction and Forecast (Mon. Feb. 10, 2014 - Tue. Jun. 25, 2024)

(Semiconductor sector etf)
SMH latest price $42.9237 (0.02%) ($42.8401 - $43.0722) on Thu. May. 29, 2014.

Trend Analysis and Forecast

Average Daily Percentage Swing   1.05% (three month average)
RSI   64
Latest Price   $42.9237(0.02%)
Stocks Behave Similarly   Similar Stock List
Top Holdings   Top Holding List
Daily Trend   SMH advances 0.5% a day on average for past five trading days.
Weekly Trend   SMH advances 1.2% a week on average for past two weeks.
Market Behavior   Normal for large cap. Normal for small cap.
Correlated ETFs   Broad market will support SMH advance at 0% a week (0% probability)
QQQ(75%)    XLK(72%)    SPY(70%)    VT(68%)    IWM(63%)
Factors Impacting SMH price   SMH will decline at least -0.525% in a week (0% probabilities).
VIXM(-21%)    TLT(-12%)    UUP(-9%)    IGOV(-6%)    SHY(-4%)
Explanation The rally is not sustainable and not supported by the broad market.

Relative Volatility (options are extremely cheap)

Market Trend Strength   -0.525% (StdDev 1.05%)
Hourly BBV 0 ()
Intraday Trend -0.3%

5 Day Moving Average   $42.57(0.83%)
10 Day Moving Average   $42.07(2.03%)
20 Day Moving Average   $41.77(2.76%)
To recent high   -0.1%
To recent low   6.6%
Market Cap   $N/A

$. SMH price fluctuates within 1.36% (three month std-dev: 1.05%) daily (68% of days).

Sample size 0 Average positive next day return: 0%(0%) Average negative next day return: 0%(0%) Sample size 0 Average positive next three day return: 0%(0%) Average negative next three day return: %(0%) Sample size 0 Average positive next weekly return: 0%(0%) Average negative next weekly return: 0%(0%)

Analysis News Options Weekly Chart Daily Chart 2 Month Daily Chart

> 20140629

i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD
1	May_29_2014	41.34	41.77	42.07	42.57			42.92(0.02%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.6	25	-10000	10	71	0.66	54%	0.05	50.7	1.05%	0	2	64	0
2	May_28_2014	41.32	41.69	41.92	42.34			42.91(0.15%)	UT	OpenLong	75	1.1	24	-10000	13	57	1.38	54%	0.05	36.9	1.06%	0	2.4	66	0
3	May_27_2014	41.3	41.61	41.8	42.06			42.85(1.43%)	UT	OpenLong	75	1.8	18	-10000	10	43	0.89	54%	0.05	14.6	1.06%	0	2.9	67	0
4	May_23_2014	41.28	41.52	41.71	41.84			42.25(0.78%)	UT	OpenLong	75	1.3	16	-10000	8	38	1.08	54%	0.05	-13	1.03%	0	2.3	62	0
5	May_22_2014	41.26	41.46	41.62	41.67			41.92(0.36%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.7	13	-10000	8	27	0.63	54%	0.02	-32.6	1.04%	0	1.2	59	0

6	May_21_2014	41.25	41.49	41.58	41.49			41.77(0.58%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.7	7	-10000	3	17	2.06	54%	0	-29.8	1.05%	0	0.7	59	0
7	May_20_2014	41.25	41.51	41.54	41.43			41.53(-0.49%)	UT	HoldLong	50	0.2	1	-10000	-2	9	1.76	55%	0.02	-23.1	1.05%	0	0	51	0
8	May_19_2014	41.24	41.55	41.51	41.48			41.74(0.88%)	N/A	N/A	0	0.6	-0	-10000	-4	11	0.78	55%	0	-6.5	1.05%	0	0.4	56	0
9	May_16_2014	41.24	41.56	41.46	41.56			41.37(0.79%)	UT	OpenLong	75	-0.4	5	-10000	-0	20	0.77	55%	0.02	9.9	1.03%	0	-0.4	55	0
10	May_15_2014	41.23	41.58	41.45	41.57			41.05(-0.99%)	UD	OpenLong	65	-1.1	1	-10000	-5	19	1.06	55%	-0.02	15.3	1.04%	0	-1.2	49	0

11	May_14_2014	41.24	41.58	41.45	41.68			41.46(-0.82%)	UD	OpenLong	75	-0.5	4	-10000	1	14	0.51	56%	0.02	10.4	1.04%	0	-0.3	35	0
12	May_13_2014	41.23	41.61	41.47	41.65			41.8(-0.73%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.3	6	-10000	6	4	0.69	57%	0.02	1.9	1.04%	0	0.4	43	0
13	May_12_2014	41.22	41.58	41.42	41.53			42.11(1.66%)	N/A	N/A	0	1.3	1	-10000	8	-19	0.92	58%	0.02	-10.2	1.04%	0	1.2	44	0
14	May_9_2014	41.21	41.58	41.31	41.36			41.42(-0.45%)	DP	OpenShort	-65	0.1	-11	-10000	2	-49	1.36	58%	0	-30.1	1.02%	0	-0.2	40	0
15	May_8_2014	41.21	41.51	41.29	41.32			41.61(0.65%)	DP	OpenShort	-65	0.6	-12	-10000	4	-60	1.77	58%	0.02	-46	1.03%	0	0.2	46	0

16	May_7_2014	41.2	41.56	41.37	41.23			41.34(0.38%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	0.2	-14	-10000	-1	-54	2.34	58%	0	-46.9	1.03%	0	-0.4	51	0
17	May_6_2014	41.2	41.6	41.46	41.26			41.18(-0.16%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.1	-12	-10000	-1	-43	1.24	58%	0	-51.5	1.04%	0	-0.8	48	0
18	May_5_2014	41.2	41.62	41.58	41.28			41.24(0.02%)	DT	HoldShort	-50	-0.1	-6	-10000	1	-25	1.07	58%	0	-58.3	1.05%	0	-0.7	53	0
19	May_2_2014	41.2	41.65	41.66	41.28			41.23(0.16%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	-0.1	-3	-10000	0	-12	1.06	58%	0	-59.1	1.06%	0	-0.8	58	0
20	May_1_2014	41.2	41.73	41.73	41.26			41.17(-0.74%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.2	-13	-10000	-13	-11	1.52	58%	0	-42.4	1.07%	0	-1	49	0

21	Apr_30_2014	41.2	41.81	41.73	41.54			41.48(0.43%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	-0.1	-6	-10000	-7	-3	1.15	58%	0.02	-19.2	1.07%	0	-0.5	39	0
22	Apr_29_2014	41.19	41.88	41.73	41.7			41.3(0.43%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	-0.6	-8	-10000	-10	-2	1.04	58%	0	-4.5	1.08%	0	-0.9	43	0
23	Apr_28_2014	41.19	41.93	41.76	41.92			41.12(-0.27%)	N/A	N/A	0	-1.3	-4	-10000	-9	10	3.13	58%	0	10.5	1.09%	0	-1.3	48	0
24	Apr_25_2014	41.19	41.97	41.75	42.12			41.23(-3.16%)	N/A	N/A	0	-1.4	-1	-10000	-6	14	2.29	58%	0	19.6	1.1%	0	-1.2	47	0
25	Apr_24_2014	41.19	41.98	41.78	42.25			42.58(0.75%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.5	13	-10000	12	14	1.83	63%		20.7	1.01%	0	1	46	0
i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD

Click to see actual return for next trading day.