Trading Signals: RARE Stock Price Prediction and Forecast

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Thu. Nov. 12, 2020

Trading Signals: RARE Stock Price Prediction and Forecast (Mon. Aug. 10, 2015 - Fri. Oct. 27, 2023)

(Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical Inc)
RARE latest price $115.4300 (-4.41%) ($111.6900 - $123.3500) on Thu. Nov. 12, 2020.

Trend Analysis and Forecast

Average Daily Percentage Swing   3.26% (three month average)
RSI   71
Latest Price   $115.4300(-4.41%)
Stocks Behave Similarly   Similar Stock List
Daily Trend   RARE advances 0.2% a day on average for past five trading days.
Weekly Trend   RARE advances 10.7% a week on average for past two weeks.
Market Behavior   Broad based sell-off for large cap. Broad based sell-off for small cap.
Correlated ETFs   Broad market will support RARE advance at 0% a week (0% probability)
IBB(60%)    IWO(51%)    XBI(51%)    ARKG(50%)    IWC(46%)
Factors Impacting RARE price   RARE will decline at least -1.63% in a week (0% probabilities).
VIXM(-26%)    UUP(-13%)    VXX(-12%)    TBT(-7%)    EDOC(-5%)
Explanation The rally is not sustainable and not supported by the broad market.

Relative Volatility (options are extremely cheap)

Market Trend Strength   -1.63% (StdDev 3.26%)
Hourly BBV -1.1 ()
Intraday Trend 0%

Inflection Point   Yes
5 Day Moving Average   $115.76(-0.29%)
10 Day Moving Average   $110.93(4.06%)
20 Day Moving Average   $102.2(12.95%)
To recent high   -4.4%
To recent low   58.1%
Market Cap   $6.974b

Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical, Inc. is a biopharmaceutical company, which engages in the identification, acquisition, development and commercialization of novel products for the treatment of serious rare and ultra-rare genetic diseases. Its product includes Mepsevii and Crysvita. Mepsevii is an intravenous, which is used for the treatment of Mucopolysaccharidosis VII. Crysvita is an antibody administered via subcutaneous injection used for the treatment of XLH. The company was founded by Emil D. Kakkis on April 22, 2010 and is headquartered in Novato, CA.

$. RARE price fluctuates within 10.28% (three month std-dev: 3.26%) daily (68% of days).

Sample size 5 Average positive next day return: 1.87%(80%) Average negative next day return: -2.7%(20%) Sample size 5 Average positive next three day return: 3.78%(100%) Average negative next three day return: %(0%) Sample size 5 Average positive next weekly return: 5.44%(100%) Average negative next weekly return: 0%(0%)

Analysis News Options Weekly Chart Daily Chart 2 Month Daily Chart

> 20201212

i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD
1	Nov_12_2020	87.4	102.2	110.93	115.76	116.82	118.45	115.43(-4.41%)	UD	OpenLong	75	-0	61	130	14	202	0.6	65%	0.48	56.6	3.26%	-1.1	1.3	71	1.1
2	Nov_11_2020	86.98	101.07	108.98	115.53	115.79	118.23	120.75(2.79%)	UT	HoldLong	65	0.5	113	150	70	240	0.34	68%	0.51	58.3	3.2%	1.2	1.9	77	1.8
3	Nov_10_2020	86.54	99.59	106.4	114.1	114.23	115.19	117.47(3.31%)	UT	HoldLong	65	0.4	103	60	57	239	0.39	68%	0.48	60.2	3.21%	1.4	2	77	1.7
4	Nov_9_2020	86.13	98.49	104.36	111.06	112.99	113.34	113.71(2.05%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.3	97	70	54	226	0.48	67%	0.42	61.9	3.2%	0.3	1.9	74	1.4
5	Nov_6_2020	85.77	97.5	102.12	107.45	109.55	113.28	111.43(-2.51%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.5	94	300	61	194	0.33	67%	0.46	58.4	3.19%	-1.1	1.9	71	1.7

6	Nov_5_2020	85.38	96.58	100.25	105.27	105.51	112.63	114.29(0.61%)	UT	OpenLong	75	1.4	180	480	167	220	0.5	67%	0.51	62.8	3.17%	0.8	2.7	73	1
7	Nov_4_2020	84.95	95.48	97.91	101.41	101.77	105.83	113.6(11.1%)	UT	OpenLong	75	2.4	180	290	180	181	0.76	67%	0.51	66.4	3.17%	1.5	3.5	69	0.8
8	Nov_3_2020	84.52	94.43	95.36	97.71	97.73	98.38	102.25(6.86%)	UT	OpenLong	75	1.4	45	50	32	82	0.63	65%	0.4	87.9	2.88%	1.6	2.3	63	-0.6
9	Nov_2_2020	84.18	93.73	94.11	96.78	96.38	97.71	95.69(-4.79%)	UD	OpenLong	75	-0.4	26	80	17	51	1.52	62%	0.33	97.5	2.89%	-0.7	0.7	47	-1.4
10	Oct_30_2020	83.9	93.42	93.66	95.9	96.4	97.09	100.5(5.79%)	UT	OpenLong	75	1.3	64	70	67	53	1.26	66%	0.41	85.4	2.81%	1.9	2	56	-1.7

11	Oct_29_2020	83.56	92.63	92.74	94.4	94.58	95.05	95(-0.09%)	N/A	N/A	0	0.2	-1	40	-2	1	1.71	63%	0.29	79.4	2.74%	-0	0.7	51	-1.4
12	Oct_28_2020	83.32	92.18	92.56	93.78	94.07	95.72	95.09(-2.6%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.3	39	130	48	11	0.61	59%	0.28	71.2	2.74%	0.5	0.7	51	-2.6
13	Oct_27_2020	83.09	91.58	92.3	92.6	93.18	94.11	97.63(6.94%)	N/A	N/A	0	1.2	45	90	60	-2	0.72	61%	0.34	60.1	2.82%	2.2	1.5	55	-0.5
14	Oct_26_2020	82.81	90.94	92.15	91.09	91.48	92.42	91.29(-1.84%)	DP	OpenShort	-65	0	-1	80	8	-26	0.3	58%	0.25	51	2.75%	-0.9	0.1	58	-0.4
15	Oct_23_2020	82.6	90.55	92.55	91.07	90.99	92.26	93(1.21%)	N/A	N/A	0	0.4	27	100	37	-3	0.25	55%	0.29	49.7	2.74%	1.6	0.5	60	1.1

16	Oct_22_2020	82.36	90.03	92.66	90.86	90.66	90.54	91.89(3.04%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.2	8	-20	9	4	0.27	55%	0.23	44	2.81%	1.6	0.4	67	1.2
17	Oct_21_2020	82.17	89.48	92.9	91.21	90.91	89.72	89.18(-1%)	CR	SmallShort	-20	-0.4	-21	-100	-32	11	0.2	51%	0.17	43.3	2.8%	-1.2	-0.1	61	0.9
18	Oct_20_2020	82.03	89.19	93.46	91.93	91.62	90.78	90.08(-1.23%)	N/A	N/A	0	-0.4	-24	-70	-45	41	0.3	51%	0.26	46.7	2.84%	-1.1	0.2	68	0.6
19	Oct_19_2020	81.82	88.86	93.41	93.37	92.63	92.11	91.2(-0.8%)	N/A	N/A	0	-0.4	-0	-60	-26	77	0.28	51%	0.28	54.2	2.85%	-1.3	0.4	63	0.7
20	Oct_16_2020	81.59	88.35	93.29	94.22	93.91	92.47	91.94(-1.82%)	UD	OpenLong	65	-0.4	11	-120	-22	108	0.49	51%	0.3	61.5	2.85%	-1	0.6	68	1.4

21	Oct_15_2020	81.35	87.9	92.65	94.71	94.48	93.15	93.64(0.94%)	N/A	N/A	0	-0.2	-6	-110	-46	115	0.33	51%	0.27	72.3	2.84%	-0.4	1	71	1.6
22	Oct_14_2020	81.13	87.32	91.9	94.84	95.06	95.34	92.77(-4.68%)	UD	OpenLong	65	-0.4	28	30	-12	148	0.33	51%	0.25	82.2	2.84%	-2	1	73	2
23	Oct_13_2020	80.93	86.79	90.94	95.18	95.19	95.82	97.32(1.97%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.4	76	50	41	181	0.28	51%	0.2	91.2	2.8%	2.2	1.9	74	2.1
24	Oct_12_2020	80.77	85.96	89.68	93.46	94.32	94.78	95.44(1.14%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.4	61	60	28	158	0.29	51%	0.29	94.9	2.86%	0.9	1.8	72	2.7
25	Oct_9_2020	80.54	85.03	88.39	92.23	92.87	94.57	94.36(0.04%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.4	72	150	44	156	0.23	51%		89.6	2.87%	0.3	1.8	74	2.6
i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD

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