Trading Signals: RARE Stock Price Prediction and Forecast

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Wed. Nov. 1, 2017

Trading Signals: RARE Stock Price Prediction and Forecast (Mon. Aug. 10, 2015 - Fri. Oct. 27, 2023)

(Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical Inc)
RARE latest price $47.9900 (4.12%) ($46.8300 - $48.9000) on Wed. Nov. 1, 2017.

Trend Analysis and Forecast

Average Daily Percentage Swing   3% (three month average)
RSI   27
Latest Price   $47.9900(4.12%)
Stocks Behave Similarly   Similar Stock List
Daily Trend   RARE advances 0.2% a day on average for past five trading days.
Weekly Trend   RARE declines -7.1% a week on average for past two weeks.
Market Behavior   Value stock rally for large cap. Broad based sell-off for small cap.
Correlated ETFs   Broad market will support RARE advance at 0% a week (0% probability)
IBB(63%)    XBI(60%)    ARKG(57%)    IWO(55%)    ARKK(50%)
Factors Impacting RARE price   RARE will decline at least -1.5% in a week (0% probabilities).
VIXM(-15%)    UUP(-10%)    TLT(-9%)    SHY(-8%)    GDXJ(-5%)
Explanation The rally is not sustainable and not supported by the broad market.

Relative Volatility (options are extremely cheap)

Market Trend Strength   -1.5% (StdDev 3%)
Hourly BBV 0 ()
Intraday Trend 2.1%

1 - 5 Day Possible Target   $34.71(-27.67%)
Resistance Level   $51
5 Day Moving Average   $46.34(3.56%)
10 Day Moving Average   $48.13(-0.29%)
20 Day Moving Average   $51(-5.9%)
To recent high   -25.2%
To recent low   6.2%
Market Cap   $2.899b

Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical, Inc. is a biopharmaceutical company, which engages in the identification, acquisition, development and commercialization of novel products for the treatment of serious rare and ultra-rare genetic diseases. Its product includes Mepsevii and Crysvita. Mepsevii is an intravenous, which is used for the treatment of Mucopolysaccharidosis VII. Crysvita is an antibody administered via subcutaneous injection used for the treatment of XLH. The company was founded by Emil D. Kakkis on April 22, 2010 and is headquartered in Novato, CA.

$. RARE price fluctuates within 6.92% (three month std-dev: 3%) daily (68% of days).

Sample size 15 Average positive next day return: 4.6%(53%) Average negative next day return: -2.13%(47%) Sample size 15 Average positive next three day return: 3.38%(67%) Average negative next three day return: -2.61%(33%) Sample size 15 Average positive next weekly return: 3.86%(67%) Average negative next weekly return: -2.16%(33%)

Analysis News Options Weekly Chart Daily Chart 2 Month Daily Chart

> 20171201

i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD
1	Nov_1_2017	58.11	51	48.13	46.34	46.25	46.73	47.99(4.12%)	DP	OpenShort	-65	0.5	-18	70	21	-134	0.77	40%	-0.17	-64.7	3%	0	-0.9	27	0
2	Oct_31_2017	58.21	51.42	48.53	46.27	45.99	45.68	46.09(1.99%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	-0	-55	-70	-19	-162	0.48	36%	-0.15	-60.4	2.99%	0	-1.5	16	0
3	Oct_30_2017	58.3	51.96	49.25	46.99	46.71	45.76	45.19(-2.86%)	DT	HoldShort	-65	-0.5	-65	-160	-34	-157	0.4	36%	-0.21	-51.7	2.97%	0	-1.9	17	0
4	Oct_27_2017	58.42	52.58	50.19	48.03	47.77	46.3	46.52(1.35%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	-0.5	-73	-230	-50	-142	0.62	34%	-0.19	-44.4	2.96%	0	-1.9	20	0
5	Oct_26_2017	58.53	52.95	50.94	49.03	49.1	47.67	45.9(-3.69%)	DT	HoldShort	-65	-1.1	-71	-200	-53	-124	0.63	34%	-0.17	-39	2.99%	0	-2.5	15	0

6	Oct_25_2017	58.63	53.39	51.83	50.15	50.31	49.24	47.66(-4.07%)	DT	HoldShort	-65	-1.1	-58	-140	-43	-103	0.39	36%	-0.17	-32	2.96%	0	-2.5	15	0
7	Oct_24_2017	58.73	53.7	52.57	51.11	51.1	50.53	49.68(-1.43%)	DT	HoldShort	-65	-0.7	-47	-80	-33	-87	0.44	38%	-0.1	-24.2	2.93%	0	-2.1	17	0
8	Oct_23_2017	58.79	53.86	53.03	51.86	51.92	51.37	50.4(-2.15%)	DT	HoldShort	-65	-0.8	-37	-70	-23	-77	0.25	38%	-0.12	-14.6	2.95%	0	-2	18	0
9	Oct_20_2017	58.86	54.02	53.4	52.69	52.61	51.68	51.51(0%)	DT	HoldShort	-50	-0.7	-39	-130	-27	-75	0.77	42%	-0.08	-1.4	2.94%	0	-1.6	18	0
10	Oct_19_2017	58.91	54.08	53.69	53.17	53.35	52.47	51.51(-1.75%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-1.1	-39	-110	-31	-63	0.35	42%	-0.03	-1.4	3%	0	-1.7	47	0

11	Oct_18_2017	58.93	54.15	54.13	53.76	53.87	53.55	52.43(-1.93%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.9	-26	-40	-21	-42	0.28	42%	-0.02	7	3.01%	0	-1.2	47	0
12	Oct_17_2017	58.94	54.18	54.54	54.26	54.27	54.22	53.46(-1.94%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.5	-5	-10	-2	-14	0.35	44%	-0.08	24.9	3%	0	-0.5	55	0
13	Oct_16_2017	58.99	54.11	54.86	54.37	54.39	54.18	54.52(1.06%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.1	1	-30	0	4	0.21	44%	-0.03	31.7	3.02%	0	0.3	61	0
14	Oct_13_2017	59.01	54.04	55.13	54.23	54.3	54.33	53.95(-0.94%)	N/A	N/A	0	-0.2	-1	10	-6	13	0.29	44%	-0.07	36.5	3.02%	0	-0.1	56	0
15	Oct_12_2017	59.05	54.1	55.09	54.3	54.4	54.6	54.46(-0.8%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.1	7	30	2	21	0.29	44%	-0.1	53.7	3.03%	0	0.2	61	0

16	Oct_11_2017	59.11	54.05	55.06	54.57	54.46	54.27	54.9(1.65%)	UT	HoldLong	50	0.2	2	-30	-7	29	0.33	47%	-0.05	60.5	3.03%	0	0.5	61	0
17	Oct_10_2017	59.14	53.81	54.9	54.91	54.92	54.2	54.01(0.37%)	N/A	N/A	0	-0.5	-7	-90	-20	32	0.3	45%	-0.05	54.6	3.06%	0	0.1	58	0
18	Oct_9_2017	59.17	53.64	54.76	55.46	55.52	54.65	53.81(-0.92%)	N/A	N/A	0	-0.8	-12	-110	-30	42	0.14	45%	-0.07	50.4	3.1%	0	0.1	60	0
19	Oct_6_2017	59.21	53.49	54.71	56.16	56.18	55.63	54.31(-2.69%)	UD	OpenLong	65	-0.9	8	-70	-11	66	0.35	42%	-0.08	45	3.1%	0	0.4	56	0
20	Oct_5_2017	59.26	53.28	54.52	55.95	56.31	56.39	55.81(-1.38%)	UD	OpenLong	75	-0.1	18	30	5	58	0.23	45%	-0.03	26.3	3.14%	0	1.1	51	0

21	Oct_4_2017	59.28	52.99	54.2	55.58	55.64	56.73	56.59(-0.3%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.5	31	140	23	56	0.17	45%	-0.05	9.7	3.19%	0	1.7	60	0
22	Oct_3_2017	59.31	52.78	53.79	54.87	54.88	56.22	56.76(-0.98%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.9	50	170	46	61	0.43	45%	-0.03	-3.1	3.22%	0	2	69	0
23	Oct_2_2017	59.33	52.64	53.28	53.97	53.86	54.54	57.32(7.62%)	UT	OpenLong	75	1.8	35	80	32	43	0.33	45%	-0.02	-13.4	3.24%	0	2.5	69	0
24	Sep_29_2017	59.34	52.54	52.8	53.12	53.12	53.54	53.26(-1.33%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.1	14	60	10	27	0.22	40%	-0.07	-15.5	3.09%	0	0.4	61	0
25	Sep_28_2017	59.38	52.7	52.97	52.9	52.96	53.19	53.98(1.83%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.5	22	30	15	43	0.18	43%		-4.2	3.09%	0	0.6	65	0
i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD

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