Trading Signals: RARE Stock Price Prediction and Forecast

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Mon. Mar. 20, 2017

Trading Signals: RARE Stock Price Prediction and Forecast (Mon. Aug. 10, 2015 - Fri. Oct. 27, 2023)

(Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical Inc)
RARE latest price $85.0700 (0.54%) ($83.4000 - $85.7400) on Mon. Mar. 20, 2017.

Trend Analysis and Forecast

Average Daily Percentage Swing   2.88% (three month average)
RSI   51
Latest Price   $85.0700(0.54%)
Stocks Behave Similarly   Similar Stock List
Daily Trend   RARE advances 0.2% a day on average for past five trading days.
Weekly Trend   RARE declines -0.8% a week on average for past two weeks.
Market Behavior   Value stocks sell-off for large cap. Value stock sell-off for small cap.
Correlated ETFs   Broad market will support RARE advance at 0% a week (0% probability)
IBB(63%)    XBI(60%)    ARKG(56%)    IWO(54%)    ARKK(49%)
Factors Impacting RARE price   RARE will decline at least -1.44% in a week (0% probabilities).
VIXM(-15%)    TLT(-9%)    UUP(-8%)    SHY(-8%)    GDXJ(-5%)
Explanation The rally is not sustainable and not supported by the broad market.

Relative Volatility (options are extremely cheap)

Market Trend Strength   -1.44% (StdDev 2.88%)
Hourly BBV 0 ()
Intraday Trend 0.4%

5 Day Moving Average   $85.55(-0.56%)
10 Day Moving Average   $85.51(-0.51%)
20 Day Moving Average   $84.39(0.81%)
To recent high   -4.2%
To recent low   25.5%
Market Cap   $5.139b

Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical, Inc. is a biopharmaceutical company, which engages in the identification, acquisition, development and commercialization of novel products for the treatment of serious rare and ultra-rare genetic diseases. Its product includes Mepsevii and Crysvita. Mepsevii is an intravenous, which is used for the treatment of Mucopolysaccharidosis VII. Crysvita is an antibody administered via subcutaneous injection used for the treatment of XLH. The company was founded by Emil D. Kakkis on April 22, 2010 and is headquartered in Novato, CA.

$. RARE price fluctuates within 4.36% (three month std-dev: 2.88%) daily (68% of days).

Sample size 7 Average positive next day return: 2.01%(43%) Average negative next day return: -2.33%(57%) Sample size 7 Average positive next three day return: 2.14%(43%) Average negative next three day return: -4.37%(57%) Sample size 7 Average positive next weekly return: 4.41%(43%) Average negative next weekly return: -6.51%(57%)

Analysis News Options Weekly Chart Daily Chart 2 Month Daily Chart

> 20170420

i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD
1	Mar_20_2017	75.33	84.39	85.51	85.55	85.59	84.77	85.07(0.54%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	-0.1	-17	-70	-15	-24	0.29	77%	0.32	61	2.88%	0	0.2	51	0
2	Mar_17_2017	75.09	84.01	85.76	85.38	85.38	85.82	84.61(-1.12%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.2	-15	40	-13	-20	0.94	77%	0.31	59.2	2.88%	0	0.1	50	0
3	Mar_16_2017	74.86	83.66	85.76	85.65	85.4	86.41	85.57(-2.88%)	UD	OpenLong	75	-0	25	70	26	23	0.36	77%	0.31	61.3	2.9%	0	0.4	67	0
4	Mar_15_2017	74.63	83.24	86.11	85.79	85.26	84.94	88.11(4.41%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.5	20	-40	13	39	0.48	77%	0.35	65.9	2.87%	0	1.1	72	0
5	Mar_14_2017	74.37	82.65	86.13	85.33	85.32	84.4	84.39(0.2%)	N/A	N/A	0	-0.2	-10	-80	-27	42	0.32	75%	0.26	65.9	2.83%	0	0.4	65	0

6	Mar_13_2017	74.18	82.2	86.23	85.48	85.76	85.59	84.22(-2.04%)	UD	OpenLong	65	-0.3	1	-0	-21	67	0.27	75%	0.26	65	2.84%	0	0.4	67	0
7	Mar_10_2017	73.99	81.71	86.36	86.18	86.1	86.23	85.97(-0.36%)	UD	OpenLong	65	-0	26	10	-2	108	0.26	75%	0.27	66	2.81%	0	0.8	70	0
8	Mar_9_2017	73.79	81.11	85.61	86.63	86.43	85.93	86.28(0.58%)	UD	OpenLong	65	-0.1	29	-50	-1	120	0.23	75%	0.35	67.4	2.83%	0	1	71	0
9	Mar_8_2017	73.53	80.38	84.74	86.47	86.62	85.97	85.78(0.74%)	UD	OpenLong	65	-0.1	7	-50	-28	110	0.3	75%	0.33	61.2	2.84%	0	1	71	0
10	Mar_7_2017	73.29	79.75	84.03	87.07	87.15	86.94	85.15(-2.92%)	UD	OpenLong	65	-0.3	28	-10	-9	137	0.45	65%	0.36	63	2.84%	0	1	71	0

11	Mar_6_2017	73.03	79.18	83.26	87.06	87.46	87.27	87.71(-0.61%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.1	44	-0	9	147	0.26	69%	0.37	69.5	2.98%	0	1.6	80	0
12	Mar_3_2017	72.76	78.48	82.18	86.55	86.82	87.35	88.25(3.26%)	UT	HoldLong	65	0.3	59	50	26	159	0.41	69%	0.32	76.2	2.97%	0	1.9	82	0
13	Mar_2_2017	72.53	77.72	81.01	84.39	85.43	87.66	85.46(-3.76%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.2	88	220	66	154	0.53	67%	0.29	76.2	2.97%	0	1.6	81	0
14	Mar_1_2017	72.32	77.17	80.13	82.68	82.53	86.28	88.8(4.37%)	UT	HoldLong	65	1.4	113	310	97	159	0.79	66%	0.26	77.1	2.93%	0	2.7	93	0
15	Feb_28_2017	72.13	76.42	78.8	80.55	79.93	83.21	85.08(-0.09%)	UD	OpenLong	75	1.3	112	260	104	137	0.73	49%	0.18	87.7	3.06%	0	2.5	83	0

16	Feb_27_2017	72	75.55	77.73	78.92	78.09	78.78	85.16(9.93%)	UT	HoldLong	65	1.9	67	30	57	97	1.12	49%	0.21	77.2	3.15%	0	3	77	0
17	Feb_24_2017	71.85	74.72	76.55	77.27	77.07	76.66	77.47(0.77%)	UT	HoldLong	50	0.1	3	-50	-13	51	0.28	38%	0.11	77.8	2.89%	0	1	64	0
18	Feb_23_2017	71.77	74.3	76.18	77.14	77.17	77.4	76.88(-1.66%)	UD	OpenLong	75	-0.1	14	20	0	55	0.47	45%	0.06	69.7	2.91%	0	0.9	63	0
19	Feb_22_2017	71.73	73.95	75.67	77.12	77.06	77.47	78.18(1.64%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.4	25	30	16	51	0.36	42%	0.13	67.1	3.01%	0	1.4	62	0
20	Feb_21_2017	71.64	73.54	75.14	76.73	76.72	76.94	76.92(0.01%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.1	20	20	13	40	0.45	42%	0.1	67.1	3.06%	0	1.2	58	0

21	Feb_17_2017	71.57	73.12	74.83	76.3	76.22	76.65	76.91(0.12%)	UT	HoldLong	65	0.2	21	40	12	49	0.71	46%	0.11	53.2	3.06%	0	1.3	78	0
22	Feb_16_2017	71.49	72.71	74.53	75.7	75.75	76.5	76.82(0.08%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.4	32	70	24	57	0.43	43%	0.08	42.5	3.11%	0	1.4	72	0
23	Feb_15_2017	71.43	72.35	74.21	75.07	74.98	75.78	76.76(0.68%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.6	38	70	30	63	0.35	43%	0.06	36.8	3.16%	0	1.6	72	0
24	Feb_14_2017	71.39	72.03	74	73.99	74.08	75.01	76.24(1.97%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.9	35	90	27	59	0.28	43%	0.07	22.2	3.16%	0	1.6	67	0
25	Feb_13_2017	71.34	71.67	73.84	73.32	73.23	74.18	74.77(1.18%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.6	31	90	21	60	0.36	43%		5.8	3.15%	0	1.2	64	0
i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD

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