Trading Signals: RARE Stock Price Prediction and Forecast

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Wed. Sep. 7, 2016

Trading Signals: RARE Stock Price Prediction and Forecast (Mon. Aug. 10, 2015 - Fri. Oct. 27, 2023)

(Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical Inc)
RARE latest price $68.0300 (0.96%) ($67.2600 - $69.9500) on Wed. Sep. 7, 2016.

Trend Analysis and Forecast

Average Daily Percentage Swing   3.73% (three month average)
RSI   58
Latest Price   $68.0300(0.96%)
Stocks Behave Similarly   Similar Stock List
Daily Trend   RARE advances 0.4% a day on average for past five trading days.
Weekly Trend   RARE declines -0.1% a week on average for past two weeks.
Market Behavior   Normal for large cap. Broad based rally for small cap.
Correlated ETFs   Broad market will support RARE advance at 0% a week (0% probability)
IBB(64%)    XBI(62%)    ARKG(57%)    IWO(54%)    ARKK(49%)
Factors Impacting RARE price   RARE will decline at least -1.865% in a week (0% probabilities).
VIXM(-16%)    TLT(-10%)    SHY(-8%)    UUP(-7%)    GDXJ(-6%)
Explanation The rally is not sustainable and not supported by the broad market.

Relative Volatility (options are extremely cheap)

Market Trend Strength   -1.865% (StdDev 3.73%)
Hourly BBV 0 ()
Intraday Trend 0.6%

5 Day Moving Average   $66.55(2.22%)
10 Day Moving Average   $65.81(3.37%)
20 Day Moving Average   $66.17(2.81%)
To recent high   -4.6%
To recent low   43.9%
Market Cap   $4.11b

Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical, Inc. is a biopharmaceutical company, which engages in the identification, acquisition, development and commercialization of novel products for the treatment of serious rare and ultra-rare genetic diseases. Its product includes Mepsevii and Crysvita. Mepsevii is an intravenous, which is used for the treatment of Mucopolysaccharidosis VII. Crysvita is an antibody administered via subcutaneous injection used for the treatment of XLH. The company was founded by Emil D. Kakkis on April 22, 2010 and is headquartered in Novato, CA.

$. RARE price fluctuates within 2.43% (three month std-dev: 3.73%) daily (68% of days).

Sample size 4 Average positive next day return: 2.57%(75%) Average negative next day return: -3.36%(25%) Sample size 4 Average positive next three day return: 6.12%(75%) Average negative next three day return: -4.27%(25%) Sample size 4 Average positive next weekly return: 7.63%(75%) Average negative next weekly return: -1.26%(25%)

Analysis News Options Weekly Chart Daily Chart 2 Month Daily Chart

> 20161007

i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD
1	Sep_7_2016	62.12	66.17	65.81	66.55	66.77	67.56	68.03(0.96%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.9	18	90	22	7	0.4	45%	-0.02	21	3.73%	0	1.2	58	0
2	Sep_6_2016	62.13	66.01	65.88	66.3	66.26	66.39	67.38(3.45%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.7	10	10	11	7	0.59	47%	-0.26	21.8	3.75%	0	0.9	55	0
3	Sep_2_2016	62.29	65.9	65.91	65.83	66.03	65.97	65.13(-1.74%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.5	-2	0	-2	-3	0.35	47%	-0.08	19.7	3.81%	0	-0.5	44	0
4	Sep_1_2016	62.34	65.97	66.01	65.91	65.88	66.13	66.28(0.55%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.2	6	30	8	1	0.28	47%	-0.1	29.8	3.85%	0	0.2	50	0
5	Aug_31_2016	62.4	65.87	65.96	65.29	65.56	66.09	65.92(-1.33%)	N/A	N/A	0	0.4	8	70	14	-10	0.51	50%	-0.05	28.3	3.87%	0	0	44	0

6	Aug_30_2016	62.43	65.83	65.89	64.93	64.93	65.63	66.81(2.75%)	DP	OpenShort	-65	1.1	-2	80	3	-16	0.54	50%	0	30.9	3.95%	0	0.6	59	0
7	Aug_29_2016	62.43	65.67	65.76	65.44	65.09	65.02	65.02(-0.73%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.2	-4	-20	-2	-10	0.35	50%	-0.1	55.6	3.97%	0	-0.4	52	0
8	Aug_26_2016	62.49	65.61	66.01	66.05	66.05	64.23	65.5(3.64%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	-0.3	-14	-190	-17	-4	0.7	50%	-0.06	89.1	3.97%	0	-0.1	52	0
9	Aug_25_2016	62.53	65.51	66.12	66.15	66.69	65.15	63.2(-1.4%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-1.5	-35	-140	-43	-12	0.55	50%	-0.18	103.6	3.95%	0	-1.2	45	0
10	Aug_24_2016	62.64	65.43	66.65	66.68	67.27	67.87	64.1(-7.58%)	UD	OpenLong	65	-1.2	3	90	-3	19	0.91	52%	-0.05	126.4	3.95%	0	-0.6	52	0

11	Aug_23_2016	62.67	65.33	66.63	66.87	66.94	68.22	69.36(1.85%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.9	33	140	33	33	0.86	55%	0.02	117.3	3.87%	0	1.5	60	0
12	Aug_22_2016	62.66	64.74	66.17	66.13	65.99	66.68	68.1(3.18%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.6	17	70	16	21	0.78	55%	0.03	99.2	3.87%	0	1	62	0
13	Aug_19_2016	62.64	64.08	65.88	66.03	65.75	65.67	66(0.24%)	UT	OpenLong	75	-0	5	-20	1	17	0.34	55%	0.05	86.5	3.89%	0	0.5	58	0
14	Aug_18_2016	62.61	63.51	65.91	66.14	66.11	65.29	65.84(1.18%)	N/A	N/A	0	-0.1	-6	-90	-14	20	0.35	58%	0.13	77	3.9%	0	0.5	58	0
15	Aug_17_2016	62.53	62.87	65.77	66.64	66.49	65.84	65.07(-0.9%)	N/A	N/A	0	-0.3	-1	-80	-13	34	0.41	58%	0.1	77.4	4%	0	0.4	63	0

16	Aug_16_2016	62.47	62.3	65.78	66.28	66.73	66.92	65.66(-2.86%)	UD	OpenLong	75	-0.1	13	40	3	44	0.45	58%	0.14	70.5	4%	0	0.6	63	0
17	Aug_15_2016	62.38	61.58	65.57	66.15	66.11	67.13	67.59(1.58%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.3	28	110	16	62	0.43	58%	0.1	65	3.98%	0	1.1	75	0
18	Aug_12_2016	62.32	60.88	65.16	65.7	65.48	66.54	66.54(-2.65%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.1	36	100	21	81	0.65	58%	0.11	63.7	3.98%	0	1	78	0
19	Aug_11_2016	62.25	60.22	64.84	65.67	65.2	65.08	68.35(8.01%)	UT	HoldLong	65	0.5	38	-30	16	103	1.03	55%	0.16	61.6	3.97%	0	1.4	83	0
20	Aug_10_2016	62.15	59.28	64.1	64.85	64.99	64.43	63.28(-2.6%)	UD	OpenLong	65	-0.3	14	-50	-16	104	0.42	52%	0.02	56.3	3.94%	0	0.7	82	0

21	Aug_9_2016	62.14	58.68	63.95	65.2	65.33	65.31	64.97(-0.58%)	UD	OpenLong	75	-0	36	0	1	141	0.46	52%	0.11	58.4	3.93%	0	1.1	85	0
22	Aug_8_2016	62.07	58.13	63.22	64.87	65.1	65.56	65.35(-1.58%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.1	48	60	10	162	0.4	52%	0.16	62.3	3.93%	0	1.3	88	0
23	Aug_5_2016	61.97	57.49	62.17	64.51	64.5	65.35	66.4(3.36%)	UT	HoldLong	65	0.3	55	90	17	168	0.27	52%	0.19	64.5	3.93%	0	1.6	77	0
24	Aug_4_2016	61.85	56.8	60.93	63.88	64.07	64.63	64.24(-1.23%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.1	60	70	23	169	0.33	52%	0.18	70.5	3.91%	0	1.5	76	0
25	Aug_3_2016	61.74	56.19	59.78	63.24	63.3	63.66	65.04(2.7%)	UT	HoldLong	65	0.4	51	40	12	168	0.3	50%		73.3	3.94%	0	1.8	82	0
i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD

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