Trading Signals: RARE Stock Price Prediction and Forecast

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Wed. Mar. 2, 2016

Trading Signals: RARE Stock Price Prediction and Forecast (Mon. Aug. 10, 2015 - Fri. Oct. 27, 2023)

(Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical Inc)
RARE latest price $67.7800 (4.76%) ($63.5300 - $70.0000) on Wed. Mar. 2, 2016.

Trend Analysis and Forecast

Average Daily Percentage Swing   5.02% (three month average)
RSI   77
Latest Price   $67.7800(4.76%)
Stocks Behave Similarly   Similar Stock List
Daily Trend   RARE advances 1.6% a day on average for past five trading days.
Weekly Trend   RARE advances 5.8% a week on average for past two weeks.
Market Behavior   Value stock rally for large cap. Broad based rally for small cap.
Correlated ETFs   Broad market will support RARE advance at 0% a week (0% probability)
IBB(66%)    XBI(63%)    ARKG(57%)    IWO(54%)    IWC(49%)
Factors Impacting RARE price   RARE will decline at least -2.51% in a week (0% probabilities).
VIXM(-18%)    TLT(-11%)    SHY(-9%)    UUP(-7%)    GDXJ(-6%)
Explanation The rally is not sustainable and not supported by the broad market.

Relative Volatility (options are extremely cheap)

Market Trend Strength   -2.51% (StdDev 5.02%)
Hourly BBV 0 ()
Intraday Trend 5.9%

5 Day Moving Average   $63.32(7.04%)
10 Day Moving Average   $62.84(7.86%)
20 Day Moving Average   $59.13(14.63%)
To recent high   -41.7%
To recent low   33.6%
Market Cap   $4.095b

Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical, Inc. is a biopharmaceutical company, which engages in the identification, acquisition, development and commercialization of novel products for the treatment of serious rare and ultra-rare genetic diseases. Its product includes Mepsevii and Crysvita. Mepsevii is an intravenous, which is used for the treatment of Mucopolysaccharidosis VII. Crysvita is an antibody administered via subcutaneous injection used for the treatment of XLH. The company was founded by Emil D. Kakkis on April 22, 2010 and is headquartered in Novato, CA.

$. RARE price fluctuates within 8.02% (three month std-dev: 5.02%) daily (68% of days).

Sample size 0 Average positive next day return: 0%(0%) Average negative next day return: 0%(0%) Sample size 0 Average positive next three day return: 0%(0%) Average negative next three day return: %(0%) Sample size 0 Average positive next weekly return: 0%(0%) Average negative next weekly return: 0%(0%)

Analysis News Options Weekly Chart Daily Chart 2 Month Daily Chart

> 20160402

i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD
1	Mar_2_2016	87.16	59.13	62.84	63.32	63.13	64.49	67.78(4.76%)	UT	HoldLong	65	0.9	46	140	34	83	0.98	42%	-0.18	17.1	5.02%	0	1.8	77	INF
2	Mar_1_2016	87.32	58.71	62.16	62.32	62.08	62.38	64.7(6.08%)	UT	HoldLong	65	0.6	32	20	14	85	0.81	42%	-0.3	-1.2	4.99%	0	1.4	77	INF
3	Feb_29_2016	87.58	58.52	61.49	61.54	62.08	61.77	60.99(-2.1%)	UD	OpenLong	65	-0.1	19	20	-4	86	0.87	40%	-0.35	-22.3	4.92%	0	0.6	75	INF
4	Feb_26_2016	87.89	58.28	60.94	62.09	61.67	61.79	62.3(2.38%)	UT	HoldLong	50	0.1	22	-10	-3	97	0.59	42%	-0.29	-39.1	4.99%	0	1	67	INF
5	Feb_25_2016	88.15	58.18	60.11	62.28	62.32	61.57	60.85(-3.01%)	UD	OpenLong	75	-0.4	27	-80	1	103	0.64	42%	-0.41	-52.9	5.02%	0	0.7	64	INF

6	Feb_24_2016	88.51	58.33	59.41	62.22	62.27	61.55	62.74(3.14%)	UT	HoldLong	50	0.1	12	-80	-14	89	0.5	42%	-0.37	-63.8	5.01%	0	1	56	INF
7	Feb_23_2016	88.84	58.77	58.33	61.97	62.34	63.07	60.83(-4.54%)	UD	OpenLong	75	-0.2	25	100	7	79	0.75	44%	-0.46	-51	5.01%	0	0.4	49	INF
8	Feb_22_2016	89.25	59.46	57.36	61.38	61.91	62.98	63.72(0.71%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.4	43	150	36	62	0.67	44%	-0.47	-45.6	5.04%	0	0.6	50	INF
9	Feb_19_2016	89.67	59.94	56.32	59.59	60.13	61.6	63.27(4.54%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.5	34	200	33	36	0.49	43%	-0.42	-50.9	5.05%	0	0.4	60	INF
10	Feb_18_2016	90.05	60.42	55.35	57.62	58.1	60.83	60.52(-1.59%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.4	35	350	45	4	0.78	43%	-0.41	-54.4	5.05%	0	0	49	INF

11	Feb_17_2016	90.42	61.2	55.05	56.17	55.87	58.65	61.5(6.24%)	RB	SmallLong	20	0.6	38	330	57	-20	0.73	43%	-0.29	-57.5	5.08%	0	0	45	INF
12	Feb_16_2016	90.68	61.65	54.84	54.2	54.07	55.38	57.89(5.7%)	N/A	N/A	0	0.4	14	160	42	-72	0.68	40%	-0.37	-65	5.04%	0	-0.4	32	INF
13	Feb_12_2016	91.02	62.67	55.15	52.76	52.65	53.09	54.77(2.49%)	DP	OpenShort	-65	0.2	-26	50	8	-127	0.74	38%	-0.54	-66.9	4.94%	0	-0.8	25	INF
14	Feb_11_2016	91.51	64	55.28	52.58	52.07	52.77	53.44(0.38%)	DP	OpenShort	-65	0.1	-40	70	1	-164	0.52	38%	-0.59	-67.7	4.92%	0	-1	26	INF
15	Feb_10_2016	92.05	65.17	56.02	52.74	52.57	52.22	53.24(3.1%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	0	-49	-60	-3	-185	1.07	38%	-0.62	-74.1	4.92%	0	-1.1	26	INF

16	Feb_9_2016	92.62	66.79	57.13	53.79	53.24	51.38	51.64(1.81%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	-0.2	-82	-280	-39	-209	1.22	38%	-0.66	-73.4	4.92%	0	-1.4	22	INF
17	Feb_8_2016	93.24	68.25	59.24	55.61	54.93	52.92	50.72(-5.81%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.5	-89	-290	-53	-195	0.88	38%	-0.86	-79.7	4.9%	0	-1.6	31	INF
18	Feb_5_2016	94.05	70.04	61.79	57.87	57.32	55.1	53.85(-0.76%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.4	-64	-300	-29	-168	0.67	38%	-0.84	-86.2	4.87%	0	-1.5	28	INF
19	Feb_4_2016	94.85	71.98	63.91	58.33	58.47	56.95	54.26(-7.18%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.4	-74	-170	-40	-175	1.26	38%	-0.76	-90	4.9%	0	-1.6	27	INF
20	Feb_3_2016	95.58	73.97	65.98	59.69	59.18	59.54	58.46(-3.82%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.1	-56	20	-21	-160	1.17	40%	-0.7	-94.5	4.83%	0	-1.4	36	INF

21	Feb_2_2016	96.25	75.96	67.91	60.97	60.43	60	60.78(-1.98%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0	-53	-80	-18	-159	1.12	44%	-0.66	-93.1	4.82%	0	-1.3	33	INF
22	Feb_1_2016	96.89	77.97	69.04	63.55	62.53	58.82	62.01(10.44%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	-0.1	-87	-460	-62	-162	0.96	44%	-0.64	-88.2	5.02%	0	-1.3	39	INF
23	Jan_29_2016	97.51	80.4	70.8	66.52	66.51	60.86	56.15(-8.06%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.9	-123	-600	-107	-171	1.55	39%	-0.67	-87.2	4.81%	0	-2.1	30	INF
24	Jan_28_2016	98.17	83.22	73.48	70.37	71.04	66.25	61.07(-5.8%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.7	-111	-440	-98	-150	0.99	41%	-0.63	-76.5	4.77%	0	-1.8	30	INF
25	Jan_27_2016	98.79	85.94	75.18	73.1	74.25	72.16	64.83(-12%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.6	-84	-150	-66	-138	1.2	43%		-68.1	4.77%	0	-1.6	31	INF
i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD

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