Trading Signals: RARE Stock Price Prediction and Forecast

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Tue. Feb. 16, 2016

Trading Signals: RARE Stock Price Prediction and Forecast (Mon. Aug. 10, 2015 - Fri. Oct. 27, 2023)

(Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical Inc)
RARE latest price $57.8900 (5.7%) ($55.0900 - $58.9000) on Tue. Feb. 16, 2016.

Trend Analysis and Forecast

Average Daily Percentage Swing   5.04% (three month average)
RSI   32
Latest Price   $57.8900(5.7%)
Stocks Behave Similarly   Similar Stock List
Daily Trend   RARE advances 2.7% a day on average for past five trading days.
Weekly Trend   RARE declines -7.4% a week on average for past two weeks.
Market Behavior   Broad based rally for large cap. Broad based rally for small cap.
Correlated ETFs   Broad market will support RARE advance at 0% a week (0% probability)
IBB(66%)    XBI(64%)    ARKG(57%)    IWO(54%)    IWC(49%)
Factors Impacting RARE price   RARE will decline at least -2.52% in a week (0% probabilities).
VIXM(-18%)    TLT(-11%)    SHY(-9%)    GDXJ(-7%)    UUP(-6%)
Explanation The rally is not sustainable and not supported by the broad market.

Relative Volatility (options are extremely cheap)

Market Trend Strength   -2.52% (StdDev 5.04%)
Hourly BBV 0 ()
Intraday Trend 3.7%

1 - 5 Day Possible Target   $29.71(-48.68%)
Resistance Level   $61.65
5 Day Moving Average   $54.2(6.81%)
10 Day Moving Average   $54.84(5.56%)
20 Day Moving Average   $61.65(-6.1%)
To recent high   -50.2%
To recent low   14.1%
Market Cap   $3.497b

Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical, Inc. is a biopharmaceutical company, which engages in the identification, acquisition, development and commercialization of novel products for the treatment of serious rare and ultra-rare genetic diseases. Its product includes Mepsevii and Crysvita. Mepsevii is an intravenous, which is used for the treatment of Mucopolysaccharidosis VII. Crysvita is an antibody administered via subcutaneous injection used for the treatment of XLH. The company was founded by Emil D. Kakkis on April 22, 2010 and is headquartered in Novato, CA.

$. RARE price fluctuates within 14.87% (three month std-dev: 5.04%) daily (68% of days).

Sample size 2 Average positive next day return: 3.74%(50%) Average negative next day return: -2.82%(50%) Sample size 2 Average positive next three day return: 0%(0%) Average negative next three day return: -9.1%(100%) Sample size 2 Average positive next weekly return: 0%(0%) Average negative next weekly return: -11.31%(100%)

Analysis News Options Weekly Chart Daily Chart 2 Month Daily Chart

> 20160316

i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD
1	Feb_16_2016	90.68	61.65	54.84	54.2	54.07	55.38	57.89(5.7%)	N/A	N/A	0	0.4	14	160	42	-72	0.68	40%	-0.37	-65	5.04%	0	-0.4	32	0
2	Feb_12_2016	91.02	62.67	55.15	52.76	52.65	53.09	54.77(2.49%)	DP	OpenShort	-65	0.2	-26	50	8	-127	0.74	38%	-0.54	-66.9	4.94%	0	-0.8	25	0
3	Feb_11_2016	91.51	64	55.28	52.58	52.07	52.77	53.44(0.38%)	DP	OpenShort	-65	0.1	-40	70	1	-164	0.52	38%	-0.59	-67.7	4.92%	0	-1	26	0
4	Feb_10_2016	92.05	65.17	56.02	52.74	52.57	52.22	53.24(3.1%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	0	-49	-60	-3	-185	1.07	38%	-0.62	-74.1	4.92%	0	-1.1	26	0
5	Feb_9_2016	92.62	66.79	57.13	53.79	53.24	51.38	51.64(1.81%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	-0.2	-82	-280	-39	-209	1.22	38%	-0.66	-73.4	4.92%	0	-1.4	22	0

6	Feb_8_2016	93.24	68.25	59.24	55.61	54.93	52.92	50.72(-5.81%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.5	-89	-290	-53	-195	0.88	38%	-0.86	-79.7	4.9%	0	-1.6	31	0
7	Feb_5_2016	94.05	70.04	61.79	57.87	57.32	55.1	53.85(-0.76%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.4	-64	-300	-29	-168	0.67	38%	-0.84	-86.2	4.87%	0	-1.5	28	0
8	Feb_4_2016	94.85	71.98	63.91	58.33	58.47	56.95	54.26(-7.18%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.4	-74	-170	-40	-175	1.26	38%	-0.76	-90	4.9%	0	-1.6	27	0
9	Feb_3_2016	95.58	73.97	65.98	59.69	59.18	59.54	58.46(-3.82%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.1	-56	20	-21	-160	1.17	40%	-0.7	-94.5	4.83%	0	-1.4	36	0
10	Feb_2_2016	96.25	75.96	67.91	60.97	60.43	60	60.78(-1.98%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0	-53	-80	-18	-159	1.12	44%	-0.66	-93.1	4.82%	0	-1.3	33	0

11	Feb_1_2016	96.89	77.97	69.04	63.55	62.53	58.82	62.01(10.44%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	-0.1	-87	-460	-62	-162	0.96	44%	-0.64	-88.2	5.02%	0	-1.3	39	0
12	Jan_29_2016	97.51	80.4	70.8	66.52	66.51	60.86	56.15(-8.06%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.9	-123	-600	-107	-171	1.55	39%	-0.67	-87.2	4.81%	0	-2.1	30	0
13	Jan_28_2016	98.17	83.22	73.48	70.37	71.04	66.25	61.07(-5.8%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.7	-111	-440	-98	-150	0.99	41%	-0.63	-76.5	4.77%	0	-1.8	30	0
14	Jan_27_2016	98.79	85.94	75.18	73.1	74.25	72.16	64.83(-12%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.6	-84	-150	-66	-138	1.2	43%	-0.62	-68.1	4.77%	0	-1.6	31	0
15	Jan_26_2016	99.41	88.35	77.37	75.72	76.27	75.82	73.67(-4.19%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.1	-28	-20	-0	-110	0.59	47%	-0.27	-60	4.58%	0	-1.1	33	0

16	Jan_25_2016	99.68	90.32	78.04	75.29	75.82	76.33	76.89(1.99%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	0.1	-41	70	-6	-145	0.6	47%	-0.41	-57.9	4.56%	0	-0.9	33	0
17	Jan_22_2016	100.09	92.16	78.92	75.84	75.66	76.71	75.39(0.91%)	DP	OpenShort	-65	-0	-39	90	3	-166	0.48	49%	-0.42	-56.7	4.64%	0	-1.1	27	0
18	Jan_21_2016	100.51	94.04	80.6	77.22	76.37	75.31	74.71(-4.17%)	DT	HoldShort	-50	-0.2	-41	-130	4	-177	0.57	49%	-0.49	-51.8	4.67%	0	-1.3	26	0
19	Jan_20_2016	101	95.98	82.47	77.65	76.57	74.61	77.96(9%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	0	-96	-220	-54	-221	0.77	49%	-0.35	-48.7	4.64%	0	-1.2	27	0
20	Jan_19_2016	101.35	97.62	84.47	79.36	78.83	77.43	71.52(-10.18%)	DT	HoldShort	-65	-0.5	-84	-140	-37	-223	0.67	46%	-0.52	-43.8	4.52%	0	-1.7	22	0

21	Jan_15_2016	101.88	99.66	87.5	81.08	81.11	78.53	79.63(-3.24%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.1	-84	-220	-35	-231	0.7	50%	-0.29	-42	4.32%	0	-1.4	25	0
22	Jan_14_2016	102.18	101.31	90.62	82.44	82.17	80.24	82.3(7.13%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	-0	-113	-170	-72	-236	0.67	50%	-0.25	-39.5	4.34%	0	-1.4	26	0
23	Jan_13_2016	102.44	102.56	93.58	84.59	85.1	83.69	76.82(-11.2%)	DT	HoldShort	-65	-0.6	-83	-100	-40	-212	0.9	43%	-0.22	-37.2	4.25%	0	-2	20	0
24	Jan_12_2016	102.67	103.98	97.51	88.03	87.52	84.1	86.51(7.94%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	-0.1	-94	-290	-59	-197	0.96	48%	-0.07	-33.6	4.14%	0	-1.6	23	0
25	Jan_11_2016	102.74	104.7	100.18	90.52	89.82	86.5	80.15(-7.28%)	DT	HoldShort	-65	-1	-133	-280	-110	-201	0.72	43%		-31.2	4.02%	0	-2.4	18	0
i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD

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