Trading Signals: RARE Stock Price Prediction and Forecast

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Wed. Sep. 16, 2015

Trading Signals: RARE Stock Price Prediction and Forecast (Mon. Aug. 10, 2015 - Fri. Oct. 27, 2023)

(Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical Inc)
RARE latest price $124.7100 (0.78%) ($121.1500 - $127.5800) on Wed. Sep. 16, 2015.

Trend Analysis and Forecast

Average Daily Percentage Swing   4.52% (three month average)
RSI   72
Latest Price   $124.7100(0.78%)
Stocks Behave Similarly   Similar Stock List
Daily Trend   RARE advances 0.6% a day on average for past five trading days.
Weekly Trend   RARE advances 5.2% a week on average for past two weeks.
Market Behavior   Broad based rally for large cap. Normal for small cap.
Correlated ETFs   Broad market will support RARE advance at 0% a week (0% probability)
IBB(67%)    XBI(65%)    ARKG(57%)    IWO(54%)    IWM(48%)
Factors Impacting RARE price   RARE will decline at least -2.26% in a week (0% probabilities).
VIXM(-20%)    TLT(-11%)    SHY(-10%)    UUP(-5%)    GDXJ(-5%)
Explanation The rally is not sustainable and not supported by the broad market.

Relative Volatility (options are extremely cheap)

Market Trend Strength   -2.26% (StdDev 4.52%)
Hourly BBV 0 ()
Intraday Trend 0.4%

5 Day Moving Average   $122.72(1.62%)
10 Day Moving Average   $121.48(2.66%)
20 Day Moving Average   $114.74(8.69%)
To recent high   -0.1%
To recent low   33.4%
Market Cap   $7.534b

Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical, Inc. is a biopharmaceutical company, which engages in the identification, acquisition, development and commercialization of novel products for the treatment of serious rare and ultra-rare genetic diseases. Its product includes Mepsevii and Crysvita. Mepsevii is an intravenous, which is used for the treatment of Mucopolysaccharidosis VII. Crysvita is an antibody administered via subcutaneous injection used for the treatment of XLH. The company was founded by Emil D. Kakkis on April 22, 2010 and is headquartered in Novato, CA.

$. RARE price fluctuates within 7.6% (three month std-dev: 4.52%) daily (68% of days).

Sample size 2 Average positive next day return: 0%(0%) Average negative next day return: -1.55%(100%) Sample size 2 Average positive next three day return: 0%(0%) Average negative next three day return: -3.6%(100%) Sample size 2 Average positive next weekly return: 0%(0%) Average negative next weekly return: -2.13%(100%)

Analysis News Options Weekly Chart Daily Chart 2 Month Daily Chart

> 20151016

i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD
1	Sep_16_2015	113.92	114.74	121.48	122.72	122.68	123.98	124.71(0.78%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.2	35	70	21	77	0.4	60%	0.36	32.2	4.52%	0	1.1	72	INF
2	Sep_15_2015	113.51	114.04	120.18	121.98	121.79	122.84	123.75(0.75%)	UT	HoldLong	65	0.2	32	60	15	84	0.29	60%	0.36	31.1	4.61%	0	1.2	78	INF
3	Sep_14_2015	113.1	113.52	119	122.2	121.82	121.39	122.83(0.92%)	UT	HoldLong	65	0.1	36	-30	13	106	0.26	60%	0.36	33.8	4.7%	0	1.2	81	INF
4	Sep_11_2015	112.69	112.87	118.07	120.89	121.64	120.74	121.71(0.94%)	UT	HoldLong	50	0.1	22	-30	-5	103	0.3	60%	0.35	0	4.8%	0	1.1	66	INF
5	Sep_10_2015	112.3	112.34	116.76	119.8	120.47	122.25	120.58(-0.37%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.1	27	120	3	100	0.4	60%	0.34	0	4.91%	0	1.1	60	INF

6	Sep_9_2015	111.92	112	115.48	120.02	119.33	122.53	121.03(-3.04%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.1	70	170	56	113	0.28	60%	0.39	0	5.02%	0	1.2	52	INF
7	Sep_8_2015	111.49	111.49	113.39	118.03	117.56	118.69	124.83(7.34%)	UT	OpenLong	75	1	59	60	50	87	0.37	60%	0.6	0	5.08%	0	1.9	58	INF
8	Sep_4_2015	110.82	110.85	110.31	115.39	114.9	116.14	116.29(0.03%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.1	11	60	4	33	0.34	55%	0.26	0	4.97%	0	0.9	51	INF
9	Sep_3_2015	110.53	110.85	108.96	114.81	114.02	116.43	116.25(-4.47%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.2	35	130	41	16	0.52	55%	0.28	0	5.1%	0	18.4	54	INF
10	Sep_2_2015	110.22	110.85	108.05	113.18	112.54	113.67	121.69(9.55%)	UT	OpenLong	75	1.3	35	50	41	16	0.49	55%	0.62	0	5.12%	0	19.2	56	INF

11	Sep_1_2015	109.54	110.85	107.32	110.33	110.65	111.61	111.08(-0.48%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.1	20	70	23	9	0.71	48%	0.08	0	4.74%	0	18.9	47	INF
12	Aug_31_2015	109.45	110.85	107.29	107.97	108.85	111.41	111.62(-1.6%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.6	45	190	53	21	0.37	48%	0.14	0	4.89%	0	18.5	50	INF
13	Aug_28_2015	109.3	110.85	107.47	104.35	105.33	109.69	113.43(4.93%)	UT	OpenLong	75	1.5	54	320	63	25	0.45	48%	0.27	0	5.04%	0	18.3	50	INF
14	Aug_27_2015	109.01	110.85	107.08	102.23	101.89	106.28	108.1(0.65%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.9	51	290	60	24	0.6	48%	-0.06	0	5.05%	0	17.1	50	INF
15	Aug_26_2015	109.07	110.85	107.44	102.24	100.69	100.98	107.4(8.17%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.8	12	-30	14	6	0.7	48%	-0.13	0	5.24%	0	16.4	50	INF

16	Aug_25_2015	109.21	110.85	108.12	104.15	102.74	97.5	99.29(6.18%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	-0.7	-55	-400	-65	-26	0.66	38%	-0.83	0	4.77%	0	14.6	50	INF
17	Aug_24_2015	110.12	110.85	109.46	106.62	106.71	100.4	93.51(-9.1%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-2.1	-113	-410	-133	-53	0.77	29%	-1.49	0	4.38%	0	14.7	50	INF
18	Aug_21_2015	111.78	110.85	111.65	110.85	110.94	107.99	102.87(-4.85%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-2.1	-75	-180	-88	-35	0.93	37%	-0.88	0	3.86%	0	27.1	50	INF
19	Aug_20_2015	112.77	110.85	111.65	112.38	112.94	113.03	108.11(-7.59%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-1.7	-10	20	-12	-5	0.83	44%	-0.51	0	3.83%	0	43.2	50	INF
20	Aug_19_2015	113.35	110.85	111.65	113.22	112.54	113.89	116.99(4.82%)	UT	OpenLong	75	1.9	15	70	18	7	0.74	63%	0.46	0	2.96%	0	58.5	50	INF

21	Aug_18_2015	112.83	110.85	111.65	112.8	112.69	112.86	111.61(-2.67%)	UD	OpenLong	75	-0.8	32	10	37	15	0.48	49%	-0.18	0	2.54%	0	72	50	INF
22	Aug_17_2015	113.03	110.85	111.65	112.86	112.28	111.19	114.67(3.76%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	1.1	-22	-80	-26	-10	0.28	62%	0.29	0	2.53%	0	72.1	50	INF
23	Aug_14_2015	112.7	110.85	111.65	112.7	112.37	112.53	110.51(-1.59%)	UD	OpenLong	75	-1.4	180	0	212	85	0.47	40%	-0.49	0	2%	0	71.3	50	INF
24	Aug_13_2015	113.25	110.85	111.65	90.6	113.12	113.37	112.3(-2.28%)	UD	OpenLong	75	17.8	252	760	296	118	0.3	40%	-0.28	0	2.23%	0	92	50	INF
25	Aug_12_2015	113.57	110.85	111.65	68.14	113.12	113.37	114.92(2.7%)	UT	OpenLong	75	37.4	388	NAN	456	182	0.42	61%		0	2.23%	0	91.9	50	INF
i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD

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