Trading Signals: PGR Stock Price Prediction and Forecast

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Fri. Jun. 13, 2014

Trading Signals: PGR Stock Price Prediction and Forecast (Mon. Mar. 17, 2014 - Wed. Sep. 27, 2023)

(Progressive Corporation)
PGR latest price $22.1390 (0.4%) ($21.4387 - $22.2440) on Fri. Jun. 13, 2014.

Trend Analysis and Forecast

Average Daily Percentage Swing   0.8% (three month average)
RSI   55
Latest Price   $22.1390(0.4%)
Stocks Behave Similarly   Similar Stock List
Daily Trend   PGR advances 0.1% a day on average for past five trading days.
Weekly Trend   PGR advances 0.1% a week on average for past two weeks.
Market Behavior   Normal for large cap. Normal for small cap.
Correlated ETFs   Broad market will support PGR advance at 0% a week (0% probability)
SPY(54%)    XLF(51%)    XLP(50%)    VT(49%)    XLI(49%)
Factors Impacting PGR price   PGR will decline at least -0.4% in a week (0% probabilities).
VIXM(-22%)    TLT(-13%)    IGOV(-8%)    UUP(-4%)    GLD(-2%)
Explanation The rally is not sustainable and not supported by the broad market.

Relative Volatility (options are extremely cheap)

Market Trend Strength   -0.4% (StdDev 0.8%)
Hourly BBV 0 ()
Intraday Trend 3.3%

5 Day Moving Average   $22.03(0.49%)
10 Day Moving Average   $21.97(0.77%)
20 Day Moving Average   $22(0.63%)
To recent high   -0.6%
To recent low   7.9%
Market Cap   $12.96b

Progressive Corp. is an insurance holding company, which engages in the provision of personal and commercial auto insurance, residential property insurance, and other specialty property-casualty insurance and related services. It operates through the following segments: Personal Lines, Commercial Lines, Property, and Other Indemnity. The Personal Lines segment includes agency and direct businesses. The Commercial Lines segment writes primary liability and physical damage insurance for automobiles and trucks owned and operated predominately by small business in the auto, for-hire transportation, contractor, for-hire specialty, tow, and for-hire livery markets. The Property segment covers residential property insurance for homeowners, other property owners, and renters. The Other Indemnity segment manages run-off businesses. The company was founded in 1965 and is headquartered in Mayfield Village, OH.

$. PGR price fluctuates within 0.55% (three month std-dev: 0.8%) daily (68% of days).

Sample size 0 Average positive next day return: 0%(0%) Average negative next day return: 0%(0%) Sample size 0 Average positive next three day return: 0%(0%) Average negative next three day return: %(0%) Sample size 0 Average positive next weekly return: 0%(0%) Average negative next weekly return: 0%(0%)

Analysis News Options Weekly Chart Daily Chart 2 Month Daily Chart

> 20140713

i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD
1	Jun_13_2014	21.44		21.97	22.03			22.14(0.4%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.9	3	-10000	1	9	2.44	75%	0.05	18.2	0.8%	0	1.2	55	0
2	Jun_12_2014	21.43	22	21.97	22.02			22.05(0.08%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.3	3	-10000	2	5	2.72	75%	0.05	40	0.81%	0	0.4	50	0
3	Jun_11_2014	21.42	22	21.97	22			22.03(0.72%)	N/A	N/A	0	0.2	3	-10000	4	-1	3.88	75%	0.05	57.6	0.82%	0	0.2	45	0
4	Jun_10_2014	21.41	22.01	21.94	21.96			21.88(-0.71%)	DT	HoldShort	-50	-0.6	-1	-10000	2	-8	2.88	75%	0.05	57.8	0.82%	0	-0.9	45	0
5	Jun_9_2014	21.4	22	21.95	21.94			22.03(-0.32%)	N/A	N/A	0	0.6	0	-10000	6	-17	1.63	75%	0.05	54.7	0.82%	0	0.2	43	0

6	Jun_6_2014	21.39	21.98	21.94	21.89			22.1(0.68%)	DP	OpenShort	-65	1.2	-6	-10000	4	-34	2.1	75%	0.05	35.1	0.82%	0	0.7	44	0
7	Jun_5_2014	21.38	21.95	21.93	21.85			21.96(0.68%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	0.6	-13	-10000	-2	-47	2.88	75%	0.05	18.4	0.83%	0	0.1	41	0
8	Jun_4_2014	21.37	21.94	21.95	21.87			21.81(0.08%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	-0.3	-18	-10000	-7	-51	3.4	75%	0.05	26	0.83%	0	-0.6	30	0
9	Jun_3_2014	21.36	21.92	21.97	21.93			21.79(-0.08%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.6	-11	-10000	-3	-36	2.78	75%	0	40	0.84%	0	-0.6	48	0
10	Jun_2_2014	21.36	21.93	22.01	21.96			21.81(-0.48%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.7	-7	-10000	-3	-19	3.59	75%	0.05	59	0.85%	0	-0.5	55	0

11	May_30_2014	21.35	21.93	22.05	21.99			21.91(-0.56%)	N/A	N/A	0	-0.3	-1	-10000	-3	5	3.12	75%	0.05	81	0.85%	0	-0	63	0
12	May_29_2014	21.34	21.92	22.07	22.02			22.03(-0.36%)	UD	OpenLong	65	0	6	-10000	-1	28	2.47	75%	0.09	102.9	0.85%	0	0.5	67	0
13	May_28_2014	21.32	21.88	22.09	22.03			22.11(0.8%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.3	15	-10000	2	53	3.53	75%	0.05	95.3	0.86%	0	0.8	70	0
14	May_27_2014	21.31	21.83	22.08	22.01			21.94(-0.16%)	UD	OpenLong	65	-0.2	11	-10000	-5	60	3.02	75%	0.09	86.4	0.86%	0	0.3	68	0
15	May_23_2014	21.29	21.79	22.06	22.06			21.97(-0.24%)	UD	OpenLong	65	-0.2	14	-10000	-5	69	2.12	75%	0.05	73.4	0.87%	0	0.4	57	0

16	May_22_2014	21.28	21.74	22.03	22.11			22.03(-0.44%)	UD	OpenLong	65	-0.2	16	-10000	-3	74	2.62	75%	0.09	70.8	0.88%	0	0.7	60	0
17	May_21_2014	21.26	21.69	21.99	22.14			22.12(0.48%)	UD	OpenLong	65	-0	16	-10000	-3	72	2.64	75%	0.09	67.7	0.88%	0	0.9	56	0
18	May_20_2014	21.24	21.62	21.93	22.17			22.02(-0.75%)	UD	OpenLong	75	-0.3	25	-10000	3	90	2.64	75%	0.05	66.5	0.89%	0	0.8	69	0
19	May_19_2014	21.23	21.56	21.88	22.14			22.18(-0.08%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.1	32	-10000	8	103	2.3	75%	0.09	63.4	0.89%	0	1.2	76	0
20	May_16_2014	21.21	21.49	21.84	22.06			22.2(0.2%)	UT	HoldLong	65	0.3	38	-10000	13	113	3.81	75%	0.14	61.8	0.9%	0	1.4	77	0

21	May_15_2014	21.18	21.43	21.79	21.93			22.16(-0.51%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.5	38	-10000	12	116	4.93	75%	0.09	58.9	0.91%	0	1.6	79	0
22	May_14_2014	21.16	21.37	21.75	21.81			22.27(1.64%)	UT	HoldLong	65	1	42	-10000	15	123	12.74	75%	0.14	54.9	0.92%	0	2	77	0
23	May_13_2014	21.13	21.3	21.65	21.66			21.91(0.76%)	UT	HoldLong	65	0.6	34	-10000	7	114	6.62	73%	0.09	47.3	0.9%	0	1.5	76	0
24	May_12_2014	21.11	21.25	21.56	21.66			21.75(0.81%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.4	27	-10000	0	107	6.03	73%	0.05	43.7	0.91%	0	1.4	73	0
25	May_9_2014	21.1	21.19	21.49	21.59			21.57(0.08%)	UD	OpenLong	65	-0.1	26	-10000	-3	113	6.62	73%		37.7	0.91%	0	1	68	0
i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD

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