Trading Signals: PEIX Stock Price Prediction and Forecast

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Mon. May. 4, 2009

Trading Signals: PEIX Stock Price Prediction and Forecast (Thu. Mar. 24, 2005 - Fri. Jan. 29, 2021)

(Pacific Ethanol, Inc.)
PEIX latest price $44.1000 (19.9%) ($36.7500 - $45.1500) on Mon. May. 4, 2009.

Trend Analysis and Forecast

Average Daily Percentage Swing   9.21% (three month average)
RSI   59
Latest Price   $44.1000(19.9%)
Stocks Behave Similarly   Similar Stock List
Daily Trend   PEIX advances 3.9% a day on average for past five trading days.
Weekly Trend   PEIX declines -0.9% a week on average for past two weeks.
Market Behavior   Normal for large cap. Normal for small cap.
Correlated ETFs   Broad market will support PEIX advance at 0% a week (0% probability)
JNK(8%)    EWG(7%)    EWI(7%)    EWY(7%)    EEM(6%)
Factors Impacting PEIX price   PEIX will decline at least -4.605% in a week (0% probabilities).
SHY(-10%)    TLT(-5%)    LQD(-2%)    TIP(-1%)    GLD(-1%)
Explanation The rally is not sustainable and not supported by the broad market.

Relative Volatility (options are extremely cheap)

Market Trend Strength   -4.605% (StdDev 9.21%)
Hourly BBV 0 ()
Intraday Trend 20%

5 Day Moving Average   $39.28(12.27%)
10 Day Moving Average   $39.13(12.7%)
20 Day Moving Average   $39.08(12.85%)
To recent high   -19.2%
To recent low   90.9%
Market Cap   $2.447b

Pacific Ethanol, Inc. engages in the production and marketing of carbon renewable fuel. It operates through the Ethanol Production, and Marketing and Distribution business segments. The Ethanol Production segment includes the production and sale of ethanol and co-products. The Marketing and Distribution segment comprises of the marketing and merchant trading of company-produced ethanol; and co-products and third-party ethanol. The company was founded by William L. Jones and Neil M. Koehler on January 30, 2003 and is headquartered in Sacramento, CA.

$. PEIX price fluctuates within 6.81% (three month std-dev: 9.21%) daily (68% of days).

Sample size 5 Average positive next day return: 0%(0%) Average negative next day return: -3.25%(100%) Sample size 5 Average positive next three day return: 0%(0%) Average negative next three day return: -5.54%(100%) Sample size 5 Average positive next weekly return: 6.19%(20%) Average negative next weekly return: -7.43%(80%)

Analysis News Options Weekly Chart Daily Chart 2 Month Daily Chart

> 20090604

i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD
1	May_4_2009	46.32	39.08	39.13	39.28	38.69	39.51	44.1(19.9%)	UT	OpenLong	75	1.8	14	100	18	1	0.01	59%	-0.39	39.8	9.21%	0	1.9	59	0
2	May_1_2009	46.5	38.56	38.46	37.81	37.74	38.4	36.78(-5.33%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.4	-6	120	0	-24	0	55%	-0.47	24.3	8.76%	0	-0.7	47	0
3	Apr_30_2009	46.72	38.57	39.06	38.43	37.48	37.88	38.85(-2.63%)	N/A	N/A	0	0.2	1	0	5	-13	0	55%	-0.53	25.9	8.8%	0	0.1	48	0
4	Apr_29_2009	46.97	38.38	39.44	38.33	37.61	37.09	39.9(8.57%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	0.6	-3	-150	-1	-10	0	55%	-0.51	8.4	8.8%	0	0.5	54	0
5	Apr_28_2009	47.21	38.13	39.25	38.12	38.2	37.08	36.75(0%)	DT	HoldShort	-50	-0.5	-14	-200	-13	-17	0	55%	-0.59	-13.5	8.74%	0	-0.5	51	0

6	Apr_27_2009	47.49	38.05	39.49	38.96	38.69	38.13	36.75(-7.89%)	CR	SmallShort	-20	-0.7	-7	-120	-10	3	0	55%	-0.52	-25.5	8.76%	0	-0.4	63	0
7	Apr_24_2009	47.74	37.92	39.84	39.17	39.21	39.31	39.9(4.1%)	UT	HoldLong	50	0.2	2	20	-4	18	0	55%	-0.4	-45.9	8.67%	0	0.6	64	0
8	Apr_23_2009	47.93	37.9	39.93	39.8	39.46	39.25	38.33(-1.34%)	UD	OpenLong	65	-0.5	3	-60	-7	31	0	55%	-0.44	-42.6	8.73%	0	0.1	55	0
9	Apr_22_2009	48.14	38.15	40.01	40.74	40.05	39.11	38.85(-5.13%)	UD	OpenLong	65	-0.6	11	-220	-3	51	0	55%	-0.48	-17.5	8.74%	0	0.2	59	0
10	Apr_21_2009	48.37	38.52	39.94	40.53	40.47	39.67	40.95(8.33%)	UT	HoldLong	50	0.1	11	-140	-4	55	0	55%	-0.29	-0.9	8.77%	0	0.6	62	0

11	Apr_20_2009	48.51	38.82	39.09	40.11	40.28	40.98	37.8(-12.2%)	UD	OpenLong	65	-0.5	10	130	-3	48	0	55%	-0.7	11.5	8.77%	0	-0.2	59	0
12	Apr_17_2009	48.85	39.4	38.74	40.53	40.06	41.28	43.05(0%)	UT	HoldLong	50	0.5	26	180	14	62	0	59%	-0.12	31	8.67%	0	0.7	69	0
13	Apr_16_2009	48.91	39.26	38.07	40.11	39.61	39.57	43.05(13.89%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.6	20	-40	9	51	0.01	59%	-0.55	39.3	8.74%	0	0.8	55	0
14	Apr_15_2009	49.18	38.75	37.2	40.11	39.64	38.85	37.8(-2.7%)	UD	OpenLong	65	-0.3	2	-110	-4	21	0	56%	-0.49	35.8	8.59%	0	-0.2	42	0
15	Apr_14_2009	49.42	38.55	36.9	39.27	39.51	39.64	38.85(-2.63%)	UD	OpenLong	75	-0.1	6	40	7	4	0	56%	-0.44	37.7	8.62%	0	0.1	39	0

16	Apr_13_2009	49.64	38.32	36.48	37.84	38.82	40.43	39.9(-2.56%)	N/A	N/A	0	0.4	9	370	21	-27	0	56%	-0.44	36.1	8.62%	0	0.3	39	0
17	Apr_9_2009	49.86	37.88	35.83	36.58	36.88	39.38	40.95(5.41%)	N/A	N/A	0	0.8	2	500	23	-62	0	51%	-0.5	33	8.94%	0	0.5	38	0
18	Apr_8_2009	50.11	37.37	35.62	35.74	35.18	37.22	38.85(2.78%)	N/A	N/A	0	0.5	1	360	25	-71	0	51%	-0.61	34.5	8.94%	0	0.3	50	0
19	Apr_7_2009	50.42	36.98	36.02	34.9	34.2	34.38	37.8(19.21%)	DP	OpenShort	-65	0.5	-8	-20	13	-69	0.01	51%	-0.75	33.3	8.93%	0	0.1	61	0
20	Apr_6_2009	50.8	36.64	36.84	34.27	33.57	33.15	31.71(-5.63%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.4	-26	-150	-12	-68	0	45%	-0.9	34.4	8.58%	0	-0.8	54	0

21	Apr_3_2009	51.26	36.45	38.45	34.27	34.41	34.01	33.6(-8.57%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.2	-9	-120	-1	-34	0	52%	-1.21	32.3	9.08%	0	-0.4	56	0
22	Apr_2_2009	51.89	36.06	40.08	34.86	34.67	33.99	36.75(6.06%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	0.3	-11	-150	-11	-9	0.01	52%	-0.75	22.7	9.09%	0	0.1	64	0
23	Apr_1_2009	52.28	35.44	40.54	35.49	35.31	34.82	34.65(0%)	N/A	N/A	0	-0.1	-14	-110	-21	8	0	52%	-0.95	16.2	9.1%	0	-0.1	62	0
24	Mar_31_2009	52.78	35.07	40.48	37.38	37.48	35.34	34.65(0%)	N/A	N/A	0	-0.3	-12	-390	-25	29	0	57%	-1.2	15.7	9.17%	0	-0.1	62	0
25	Mar_30_2009	53.42	34.55	40.47	39.9	40.21	35.81	34.65(3.12%)	N/A	N/A	0	-0.7	-19	-740	-42	52	0	49%		15.1	9.6%	0	0	63	0
i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD

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