Trading Signals: PEIX Stock Price Prediction and Forecast

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Thu. May. 11, 2006

Trading Signals: PEIX Stock Price Prediction and Forecast (Thu. Mar. 24, 2005 - Fri. Jan. 29, 2021)

(Pacific Ethanol, Inc.)
PEIX latest price $4450.9500 (3.09%) ($4331.2500 - $4672.5000) on Thu. May. 11, 2006.

Trend Analysis and Forecast

Average Daily Percentage Swing   5.49% (three month average)
RSI   81
Latest Price   $4450.9500(3.09%)
Stocks Behave Similarly   Similar Stock List
Daily Trend   PEIX advances 3.9% a day on average for past five trading days.
Weekly Trend   PEIX advances 11% a week on average for past two weeks.
Market Behavior   Normal for large cap. Normal for small cap.
Correlated ETFs   Broad market will support PEIX advance at 0% a week (0% probability)
EEM(16%)    IWM(16%)    VWO(16%)    EWY(15%)    OIH(15%)
Factors Impacting PEIX price   PEIX will decline at least -2.745% in a week (0% probabilities).
LQD(-8%)    TLT(-7%)    SHY(-7%)    TIP(-1%)    REMX(3%)
Explanation The rally is not sustainable and not supported by the broad market.

Relative Volatility (options are extremely cheap)

Market Trend Strength   -2.745% (StdDev 5.49%)
Hourly BBV 0 ()
Intraday Trend -0.6%

5 Day Moving Average   $4157.16(7.07%)
10 Day Moving Average   $3941.94(12.91%)
20 Day Moving Average   $3639.18(22.31%)
To recent high   0%
To recent low   153.1%
Market Cap   $246.952b

Pacific Ethanol, Inc. engages in the production and marketing of carbon renewable fuel. It operates through the Ethanol Production, and Marketing and Distribution business segments. The Ethanol Production segment includes the production and sale of ethanol and co-products. The Marketing and Distribution segment comprises of the marketing and merchant trading of company-produced ethanol; and co-products and third-party ethanol. The company was founded by William L. Jones and Neil M. Koehler on January 30, 2003 and is headquartered in Sacramento, CA.

$. PEIX price fluctuates within 11.1% (three month std-dev: 5.49%) daily (68% of days).

Sample size 2 Average positive next day return: 4.81%(100%) Average negative next day return: 0%(0%) Sample size 2 Average positive next three day return: 6.04%(100%) Average negative next three day return: %(0%) Sample size 2 Average positive next weekly return: 6.61%(50%) Average negative next weekly return: -3.82%(50%)

Analysis News Options Weekly Chart Daily Chart 2 Month Daily Chart

> 20060611

i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD
1	May_11_2006	2153.73	3639.18	3941.94	4157.16	4231.11	4370.49	4450.95(3.09%)	UT	HoldLong	65	0.7	1942	280	2249	1020	0.08	84%	1.66	80.6	5.49%	0	2	81	NAN
2	May_10_2006	2118.64	3559.29	3832.32	3999.66	4042.89	4238.06	4317.6(3.58%)	UT	HoldLong	65	0.8	1765	370	2045	924	0.04	85%	1.62	74.2	5.53%	0	2	82	NAN
3	May_9_2006	2084.82	3496.21	3744.44	3924.27	3911.05	4091.72	4168.51(0.48%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.7	2261	310	2630	1155	0.09	85%	1.56	87.2	5.58%	0	1.9	72	NAN
4	May_8_2006	2052.79	3448.85	3674.23	3866.31	3829.55	3847.73	4148.55(12.12%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.9	1134	0	1303	625	0.07	85%	1.57	108.8	5.58%	0	2.2	70	NAN
5	May_5_2006	2021.15	3388.03	3601.95	3750.6	3784.86	3730.39	3700.2(1%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	-0.2	-362	-70	-451	-95	0.03	83%	1.42	121.4	5.42%	0	1.1	54	NAN

6	May_4_2006	1992.81	3340.29	3551.17	3689.7	3732.42	3811.37	3663.45(-7.03%)	UD	OpenLong	75	-0.1	168	180	174	148	0.08	83%	1.44	114.3	5.46%	0	1	64	NAN
7	May_3_2006	1964.59	3293.59	3491.4	3629.64	3655.31	3839.33	3940.65(1.6%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.9	2124	370	2476	1066	0.05	88%	1.62	109.4	5.4%	0	2	73	NAN
8	May_2_2006	1933.33	3212.43	3415.92	3534.51	3521.24	3653.48	3878.7(8.65%)	UT	OpenLong	75	1	1785	250	2081	895	0.06	89%	1.59	95.9	5.44%	0	1.9	65	NAN
9	May_1_2006	1902.99	3134.09	3350.24	3458.07	3448.92	3471.3	3570(5.13%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.3	638	40	736	342	0.03	78%	1.44	91.4	5.64%	0	1.2	56	NAN
10	Apr_28_2006	1876	3070.74	3344.12	3437.07	3448.13	3389.01	3395.7(0.97%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	-0.1	-137	-110	-175	-21	0.02	83%	1.32	89.7	7.34%	0	0.8	61	NAN

11	Apr_27_2006	1851.57	3018.56	3313.89	3390.45	3429.23	3426.54	3363.15(-2.94%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.1	-269	30	-332	-81	0.03	83%	1.32	87.9	7.4%	0	0.8	65	NAN
12	Apr_26_2006	1827.39	2968.97	3268.43	3323.88	3377.85	3507.26	3465(-0.9%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.3	773	320	895	406	0.04	83%	1.4	86.2	7.38%	0	1.1	67	NAN
13	Apr_25_2006	1802.13	2902.64	3231.1	3274.11	3284.14	3431.93	3496.5(0.91%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.5	1275	320	1482	655	0.1	83%	1.44	81.8	7.37%	0	1.3	74	NAN
14	Apr_24_2006	1776.62	2827.61	3205.71	3227.91	3226.85	3248.44	3465(9.56%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.5	605	50	687	359	0.06	83%	1.37	76.3	7.37%	0	1.4	73	NAN
15	Apr_21_2006	1752.68	2750.02	3155	3246.39	3244.43	3136.35	3162.6(4.37%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	-0.2	-593	-230	-731	-180	0.03	83%	1.23	75.5	7.32%	0	0.9	72	NAN

16	Apr_20_2006	1731.3	2688.77	3114.37	3228.54	3308.35	3205.26	3030.3(-5.78%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.4	-745	-140	-913	-240	0.04	83%	1.16	71.1	7.37%	0	0.7	69	NAN
17	Apr_19_2006	1711.51	2636.08	3086.65	3196.83	3287.75	3352.52	3216.15(-1.51%)	CR	SmallShort	-20	0	-55	220	-105	94	0.05	83%	1.25	68.2	7.31%	0	1.1	71	NAN
18	Apr_18_2006	1690.35	2573.78	3000.19	3173.73	3215.56	3411.45	3265.5(-8.21%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.2	1249	470	1427	716	0.08	83%	1.15	69	7.31%	0	1.3	76	NAN
19	Apr_17_2006	1671.08	2509.03	2906.74	3176.88	3181.96	3222.98	3557.4(15.75%)	UT	HoldLong	65	0.8	1420	100	1621	818	0.06	86%	1.37	73.2	7.19%	0	2.1	84	NAN
20	Apr_13_2006	1648.49	2427.52	2775.69	3058.65	3134.78	3019.67	3073.35(7.02%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	0	-528	-180	-672	-94	0.03	85%	1.1	76.3	6.99%	0	1.5	82	NAN

21	Apr_12_2006	1630.63	2372.5	2700.42	2986.83	3090.81	3140.94	2871.75(-7.38%)	CR	SmallShort	-20	-0.3	-335	220	-448	6	0.05	85%	0.97	77.3	6.96%	0	1.2	80	NAN
22	Apr_11_2006	1614.91	2323.72	2648.82	2953.23	3014.03	3249.88	3100.65(-5.5%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.4	2063	610	2367	1151	0.07	88%	1.12	77.7	6.9%	0	1.9	84	NAN
23	Apr_10_2006	1596.96	2260.7	2549.31	2791.32	2822.27	3040.67	3281.25(10.62%)	UT	HoldLong	65	1.3	2527	570	2920	1349	0.05	88%	1.35	70.1	6.86%	0	2.7	88	NAN
24	Apr_7_2006	1575.72	2188.71	2414.9	2594.55	2597.04	2778.17	2966.25(9.28%)	UT	HoldLong	65	1.2	1660	490	1911	907	0.02	88%	1.15	65.5	6.75%	0	2.5	84	NAN
25	Apr_6_2006	1557.76	2130.51	2305.91	2454.69	2461.33	2603.87	2714.25(0.39%)	UT	HoldLong	65	1	1602	410	1852	851	0.02	87%		58.8	6.73%	0	2.3	81	NAN
i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD

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