Trading Signals: PCY Stock Price Prediction and Forecast

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Mon. Sep. 10, 2012

Trading Signals: PCY Stock Price Prediction and Forecast (Thu. Oct. 11, 2007 - Fri. Dec. 22, 2023)

(Invesco Emerging Markets Sovereign Debt ETF)
PCY latest price $30.6600 (0.26%) ($30.5800 - $30.6600) on Mon. Sep. 10, 2012.

Trend Analysis and Forecast

Average Daily Percentage Swing   0.28% (three month average)
RSI   97
Latest Price   $30.6600(0.26%)
Stocks Behave Similarly   Similar Stock List
Top Holdings   Top Holding List
Daily Trend   PCY advances 0.3% a day on average for past five trading days.
Weekly Trend   PCY advances 0.8% a week on average for past two weeks.
Market Behavior   Normal for large cap. Normal for small cap.
Correlated ETFs   Broad market will support PCY advance at 0% a week (0% probability)
EMHY(85%)    JNK(66%)    LQD(62%)    EEM(55%)    EWG(55%)
Factors Impacting PCY price   PCY will decline at least -0.14% in a week (0% probabilities).
IGOV(5%)    SHY(7%)    TLT(19%)    GLD(23%)    USO(24%)
Explanation The rally is not sustainable and not supported by the broad market.

Relative Volatility (options are extremely cheap)

Market Trend Strength   -0.14% (StdDev 0.28%)
Hourly BBV 0 ()
Intraday Trend 0.2%

5 Day Moving Average   $30.48(0.59%)
10 Day Moving Average   $30.33(1.09%)
20 Day Moving Average   $30.16(1.66%)
To recent high   0%
To recent low   8.7%
Market Cap   $N/A

$. PCY price fluctuates within 0.8% (three month std-dev: 0.28%) daily (68% of days).

Sample size 0 Average positive next day return: 0%(0%) Average negative next day return: 0%(0%) Sample size 0 Average positive next three day return: 0%(0%) Average negative next three day return: %(0%) Sample size 0 Average positive next weekly return: 0%(0%) Average negative next weekly return: 0%(0%)

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> 20121010

i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD
1	Sep_10_2012	29.05	30.16	30.33	30.48			30.66(0.26%)	UT	HoldLong	65	0.7	62	-10000	21	186	1.01	82%	0.07	32.5	0.28%	0	2.1	97	0
2	Sep_7_2012	29.03	30.13	30.27	30.39			30.58(0.53%)	UT	HoldLong	65	0.9	57	-10000	19	170	0.93	83%	0.1	22.9	0.28%	0	2.1	97	0
3	Sep_6_2012	29	30.1	30.23	30.31			30.42(0.13%)	UT	HoldLong	65	0.6	52	-10000	13	167	0.68	84%	0.07	18.3	0.27%	0	1.8	95	0
4	Sep_5_2012	28.98	30.1	30.19	30.26			30.38(0.07%)	UT	HoldLong	65	0.7	45	-10000	12	145	0.92	85%	0.07	18.9	0.29%	0	1.8	79	0
5	Sep_4_2012	28.96	30.09	30.14	30.21			30.36(0.56%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.9	39	-10000	12	119	1.77	85%	0.14	20.8	0.29%	0	1.7	59	0

6	Aug_31_2012	28.92	30.09	30.08	30.16			30.19(-0.03%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.2	20	-10000	2	75	0.67	79%	0.07	26	0.3%	0	0.7	50	0
7	Aug_30_2012	28.9	30.08	30.05	30.15			30.2(0.17%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.3	17	-10000	5	54	0.76	79%	0.07	34	0.3%	0	0.8	55	0
8	Aug_29_2012	28.88	30.07	30.01	30.13			30.15(-0.03%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.1	12	-10000	7	27	0.43	79%	0.07	40	0.3%	0	0.5	47	0
9	Aug_28_2012	28.86	30.06	29.98	30.1			30.16(0.13%)	N/A	N/A	0	0.4	8	-10000	11	0	0.37	79%	0.07	50	0.3%	0	0.7	43	0
10	Aug_27_2012	28.84	30.05	29.98	30.05			30.12(0.07%)	N/A	N/A	0	0.5	3	-10000	13	-28	0.55	79%	0.07	54	0.31%	0	0.5	39	0

11	Aug_24_2012	28.82	30.04	29.98	29.99			30.1(-0.03%)	DP	OpenShort	-65	0.7	-6	-10000	13	-63	1.14	79%	0.07	50.9	0.31%	0	0.4	36	0
12	Aug_23_2012	28.8	30.03	29.98	29.93			30.11(0.3%)	DP	OpenShort	-65	1	-13	-10000	13	-92	1.31	75%	0.07	38.3	0.31%	0	0.4	46	0
13	Aug_22_2012	28.78	30.01	29.97	29.87			30.02(0.4%)	DP	OpenShort	-65	0.7	-23	-10000	6	-108	1.2	75%	0.07	25.4	0.32%	0	0	51	0
14	Aug_21_2012	28.76	29.99	29.99	29.84			29.9(0.27%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	0.3	-36	-10000	-11	-111	0.64	76%	0.07	15.6	0.32%	0	-0.4	47	0
15	Aug_20_2012	28.74	29.97	30.03	29.89			29.82(0.1%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	-0.3	-30	-10000	-13	-80	0.36	76%	0.07	16.3	0.32%	0	-0.6	47	0

16	Aug_17_2012	28.72	29.97	30.08	29.95			29.79(-0.03%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.7	-18	-10000	-12	-34	0.35	72%	0.03	22.5	0.33%	0	-0.7	47	0
17	Aug_16_2012	28.71	29.97	30.12	30.01			29.8(-0.37%)	CR	SmallShort	-20	-0.8	-10	-10000	-14	3	0.68	72%	0.07	32.5	0.33%	0	-0.6	54	0
18	Aug_15_2012	28.69	29.96	30.14	30.08			29.91(-0.7%)	UD	OpenLong	65	-0.7	2	-10000	-14	49	0.57	68%	0.07	47	0.33%	0	-0.2	64	0
19	Aug_14_2012	28.67	29.95	30.16	30.15			30.12(-0.1%)	UD	OpenLong	65	-0.1	19	-10000	-6	95	0.84	67%	0.07	62.7	0.35%	0	0.7	78	0
20	Aug_13_2012	28.65	29.93	30.14	30.18			30.15(0.27%)	UD	OpenLong	65	-0.1	26	-10000	-7	125	0.72	67%	0.1	76.2	0.37%	0	0.9	80	0

21	Aug_10_2012	28.62	29.91	30.12	30.22			30.07(-0.3%)	UD	OpenLong	65	-0.6	36	-10000	-4	157	0.81	67%	0.07	88.5	0.37%	0	0.6	73	0
22	Aug_9_2012	28.6	29.88	30.1	30.24			30.16(-0.26%)	UD	OpenLong	75	-0.3	48	-10000	5	176	0.48	64%	0.07	91.5	0.37%	0	1	68	0
23	Aug_8_2012	28.58	29.84	30.06	30.21			30.24(-0.2%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.1	47	-10000	7	168	0.47	64%	0.07	92.8	0.37%	0	1.4	70	0
24	Aug_7_2012	28.56	29.8	29.99	30.17			30.3(-0.13%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.4	46	-10000	12	149	0.69	64%	0.07	90.1	0.37%	0	1.7	74	0
25	Aug_6_2012	28.54	29.74	29.91	30.1			30.34(0.53%)	UT	HoldLong	65	0.8	42	-10000	15	123	0.95	64%		87.1	0.37%	0	2	76	0
i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD

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