Trading Signals: PCY Stock Price Prediction and Forecast

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Thu. Jun. 14, 2012

Trading Signals: PCY Stock Price Prediction and Forecast (Thu. Oct. 11, 2007 - Fri. Dec. 22, 2023)

(Invesco Emerging Markets Sovereign Debt ETF)
PCY latest price $28.4400 (0.25%) ($28.3800 - $28.4500) on Thu. Jun. 14, 2012.

Trend Analysis and Forecast

Average Daily Percentage Swing   0.38% (three month average)
RSI   79
Latest Price   $28.4400(0.25%)
Stocks Behave Similarly   Similar Stock List
Top Holdings   Top Holding List
Daily Trend   PCY advances 0.2% a day on average for past five trading days.
Weekly Trend   PCY advances 1.2% a week on average for past two weeks.
Market Behavior   Normal for large cap. Normal for small cap.
Correlated ETFs   Broad market will support PCY advance at 0% a week (0% probability)
EMHY(84%)    JNK(66%)    LQD(62%)    EEM(54%)    EWG(54%)
Factors Impacting PCY price   PCY will decline at least -0.19% in a week (0% probabilities).
IGOV(5%)    SHY(7%)    TLT(18%)    GLD(23%)    USO(24%)
Explanation The rally is not sustainable and not supported by the broad market.

Relative Volatility (options are extremely cheap)

Market Trend Strength   -0.19% (StdDev 0.38%)
Hourly BBV 0 ()
Intraday Trend 0.1%

5 Day Moving Average   $28.3(0.49%)
10 Day Moving Average   $28.07(1.32%)
20 Day Moving Average   $27.9(1.94%)
To recent high   -0.9%
To recent low   3.3%
Market Cap   $N/A

$. PCY price fluctuates within 1% (three month std-dev: 0.38%) daily (68% of days).

Sample size 0 Average positive next day return: 0%(0%) Average negative next day return: 0%(0%) Sample size 0 Average positive next three day return: 0%(0%) Average negative next three day return: %(0%) Sample size 0 Average positive next weekly return: 0%(0%) Average negative next weekly return: 0%(0%)

Analysis News Options Weekly Chart Daily Chart 2 Month Daily Chart

> 20120714

i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD
1	Jun_14_2012	28.02	27.9	28.07	28.3			28.44(0.25%)	UT	HoldLong	65	0.5	56	-10000	11	191	0.32	41%	0.07	18	0.38%	0	1.9	79	0
2	Jun_13_2012	28	27.87	28	28.24			28.37(0.18%)	UT	HoldLong	65	0.5	53	-10000	13	174	1.75	43%	0.04	1.1	0.38%	0	2	76	0
3	Jun_12_2012	27.99	27.84	27.93	28.17			28.32(0.43%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.7	53	-10000	22	146	0.54	45%	0.04	-22.8	0.39%	0	2.2	65	0
4	Jun_11_2012	27.98	27.83	27.86	28.05			28.2(0.04%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.7	41	-10000	20	105	0.38	43%	0.04	-50.7	0.39%	0	1.8	63	0
5	Jun_8_2012	27.97	27.84	27.8	27.94			28.19(0.25%)	UT	OpenLong	75	1	36	-10000	24	73	0.49	45%	0.07	-60.5	0.39%	0	1.5	68	0

6	Jun_7_2012	27.95	27.85	27.75	27.81			28.12(0.39%)	UT	OpenLong	75	1.1	18	-10000	16	25	0.53	45%	0.04	-72.2	0.39%	0	1	61	0
7	Jun_6_2012	27.94	27.87	27.7	27.72			28.01(0.94%)	N/A	N/A	0	1	5	-10000	11	-13	0.98	42%	0.04	-74.1	0.39%	0	0.5	52	0
8	Jun_5_2012	27.93	27.89	27.68	27.66			27.75(0.4%)	DP	OpenShort	-65	0.3	-7	-10000	4	-41	0.97	37%	0	-69.7	0.37%	0	-0.4	42	0
9	Jun_4_2012	27.93	27.94	27.68	27.66			27.64(0.44%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	0	-18	-10000	0	-70	0.47	35%	0.04	-61.8	0.37%	0	-0.8	27	0
10	Jun_1_2012	27.92	27.99	27.69	27.64			27.52(-0.65%)	DT	HoldShort	-65	-0.3	-34	-10000	-6	-118	1.11	34%	0	-54.8	0.37%	0	-1.1	17	0

11	May_31_2012	27.92	28.05	27.71	27.64			27.7(0.07%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	0.1	-37	-10000	0	-148	0.69	34%	0.04	-50	0.36%	0	-0.9	19	0
12	May_30_2012	27.91	28.09	27.73	27.67			27.68(0.04%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	0	-52	-10000	-8	-183	0.91	36%	0.04	-46	0.37%	0	-1	18	0
13	May_29_2012	27.9	28.13	27.75	27.71			27.67(0.14%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	-0.1	-58	-10000	-6	-213	0.78	36%	0.04	-41.6	0.37%	0	-1.1	15	0
14	May_25_2012	27.89	28.17	27.81	27.74			27.63(-0.18%)	DT	HoldShort	-65	-0.3	-59	-10000	-2	-231	0.67	36%	0.04	-38.7	0.37%	0	-1.4	13	0
15	May_24_2012	27.88	28.21	27.89	27.75			27.68(-0.11%)	DT	HoldShort	-65	-0.2	-63	-10000	-2	-244	0.49	36%	0	-38.5	0.37%	0	-1.4	15	0

16	May_23_2012	27.88	28.25	27.96	27.76			27.71(-0.54%)	DT	HoldShort	-65	-0.1	-70	-10000	-8	-256	0.7	36%	0.04	-37.8	0.37%	0	-1.5	15	0
17	May_22_2012	27.87	28.29	28.04	27.8			27.86(0.14%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	0.2	-66	-10000	-2	-257	2.12	40%	0	-35	0.36%	0	-1.3	24	0
18	May_21_2012	27.87	28.31	28.12	27.81			27.82(0.58%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	0	-77	-10000	-16	-258	0.43	43%	0	-35.4	0.36%	0	-1.5	26	0
19	May_18_2012	27.87	28.33	28.21	27.89			27.66(-0.32%)	DT	HoldShort	-65	-0.8	-82	-10000	-32	-231	0.8	40%	0.04	-29.2	0.36%	0	-2.2	20	0
20	May_17_2012	27.86	28.36	28.31	28.05			27.75(-0.5%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-1.1	-64	-10000	-29	-167	0.88	40%	0	-12.6	0.36%	0	-2.3	29	0

21	May_16_2012	27.86	28.39	28.41	28.2			27.89(-0.07%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-1.3	-43	-10000	-23	-104	0.74	42%	0.04	2.5	0.36%	0	-2.2	31	0
22	May_15_2012	27.85	28.41	28.48	28.32			27.91(-1.13%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-1.9	-35	-10000	-29	-52	0.98	42%	0	20.8	0.36%	0	-2.3	40	0
23	May_14_2012	27.85	28.41	28.55	28.47			28.23(-0.88%)	N/A	N/A	0	-1.2	-11	-10000	-21	19	0.69	47%	0.04	48.6	0.33%	0	-1	55	0
24	May_11_2012	27.84	28.42	28.55	28.57			28.48(0%)	UD	OpenLong	65	-0.4	13	-10000	-9	78	0.42	52%	0.04	60.8	0.31%	0	0.3	71	0
25	May_10_2012	27.83	28.4	28.58	28.61			28.48(-0.14%)	UD	OpenLong	65	-0.6	20	-10000	-9	105	0.88	52%		68.9	0.31%	0	0.4	67	0
i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD

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