Trading Signals: PCY Stock Price Prediction and Forecast

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Tue. May. 1, 2012

Trading Signals: PCY Stock Price Prediction and Forecast (Thu. Oct. 11, 2007 - Fri. Dec. 22, 2023)

(Invesco Emerging Markets Sovereign Debt ETF)
PCY latest price $28.5200 (0.11%) ($28.4600 - $28.5300) on Tue. May. 1, 2012.

Trend Analysis and Forecast

Average Daily Percentage Swing   0.31% (three month average)
RSI   74
Latest Price   $28.5200(0.11%)
Stocks Behave Similarly   Similar Stock List
Top Holdings   Top Holding List
Daily Trend   PCY advances 0.2% a day on average for past five trading days.
Weekly Trend   PCY advances 0.6% a week on average for past two weeks.
Market Behavior   Normal for large cap. Normal for small cap.
Correlated ETFs   Broad market will support PCY advance at 0% a week (0% probability)
EMHY(84%)    JNK(66%)    LQD(62%)    EEM(54%)    EWG(54%)
Factors Impacting PCY price   PCY will decline at least -0.155% in a week (0% probabilities).
IGOV(6%)    SHY(7%)    TLT(18%)    GLD(22%)    USO(24%)
Explanation The rally is not sustainable and not supported by the broad market.

Relative Volatility (options are extremely cheap)

Market Trend Strength   -0.155% (StdDev 0.31%)
Hourly BBV 0 ()
Intraday Trend 0.1%

5 Day Moving Average   $28.42(0.35%)
10 Day Moving Average   $28.32(0.71%)
20 Day Moving Average   $28.19(1.17%)
To recent high   -0.1%
To recent low   4%
Market Cap   $N/A

$. PCY price fluctuates within 0.6% (three month std-dev: 0.31%) daily (68% of days).

Sample size 0 Average positive next day return: 0%(0%) Average negative next day return: 0%(0%) Sample size 0 Average positive next three day return: 0%(0%) Average negative next three day return: %(0%) Sample size 0 Average positive next weekly return: 0%(0%) Average negative next weekly return: 0%(0%)

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> 20120601

i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD
1	May_1_2012	27.73	28.19	28.32	28.42			28.52(0.11%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.6	40	-10000	14	118	0.77	56%	0.07	61.7	0.31%	0	1.9	74	0
2	Apr_30_2012	27.71	28.17	28.28	28.36			28.49(0.32%)	UT	HoldLong	65	0.9	36	-10000	12	107	0.53	59%	0.04	62.3	0.31%	0	2.1	76	0
3	Apr_27_2012	27.7	28.14	28.24	28.31			28.4(-0.04%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.7	28	-10000	7	92	0.33	57%	0.04	60.9	0.31%	0	2	69	0
4	Apr_26_2012	27.69	28.12	28.2	28.28			28.41(0.46%)	UT	OpenLong	75	1.1	32	-10000	12	90	0.44	60%	0.07	60.5	0.31%	0	2.4	72	0
5	Apr_25_2012	27.67	28.1	28.18	28.23			28.28(0.21%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.5	26	-10000	7	82	0.55	58%	0.04	58.3	0.32%	0	1.8	62	0

6	Apr_24_2012	27.66	28.08	28.16	28.2			28.22(0%)	UT	HoldLong	50	0.2	21	-10000	4	71	0.39	54%	0.04	50	0.32%	0	1.6	60	0
7	Apr_23_2012	27.65	28.07	28.13	28.18			28.22(-0.11%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.4	17	-10000	4	56	0.28	54%	0.04	37.5	0.33%	0	1.7	55	0
8	Apr_20_2012	27.64	28.06	28.11	28.16			28.25(0.25%)	UT	OpenLong	75	1.1	21	-10000	11	50	0.5	54%	0.04	24.1	0.33%	0	2.4	60	0
9	Apr_19_2012	27.63	28.05	28.08	28.11			28.18(0.18%)	UT	HoldLong	50	1	5	-10000	-2	26	0.43	54%	0.04	0	0.33%	0	1.9	58	0
10	Apr_18_2012	27.62	28.05	28.06	28.12			28.13(0%)	UT	HoldLong	50	0.1	12	-10000	4	34	0.46	57%	0.07	-20	0.33%	0	1.3	58	0

11	Apr_17_2012	27.6	28.05	28.06	28.1			28.13(0.11%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.4	12	-10000	6	31	0.46	57%	0.04	-60	0.34%	0	1.3	59	0
12	Apr_16_2012	27.59	28.05	28.05	28.07			28.1(0.25%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.4	9	-10000	4	23	0.35	57%	0.04	-88	0.34%	0	0.9	54	0
13	Apr_13_2012	27.58	28.04	28.05	28.05			28.03(-0.67%)	UD	OpenLong	75	-0.2	7	-10000	4	16	0.56	53%	0.04	-89.7	0.34%	0	-0.1	50	0
14	Apr_12_2012	27.57	28.05	28.04	28.03			28.22(0.64%)	UT	OpenLong	75	2.4	8	-10000	6	14	1.33	57%	0.04	-106.9	0.35%	0	2.1	66	0
15	Apr_11_2012	27.56	28.06	28.04	28			28.04(0.32%)	N/A	N/A	0	0.4	1	-10000	2	-4	0.83	54%	0.07	-76.9	0.34%	0	-0.2	47	0

16	Apr_10_2012	27.54	28.08	28.04	27.99			27.95(-0.21%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.2	-8	-10000	-6	-15	1.06	54%	0.04	-42.1	0.34%	0	-0.8	41	0
17	Apr_9_2012	27.53	28.1	28.01	27.99			28.01(0.21%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	-0.1	-3	-10000	0	-12	0.42	54%	0.04	-31.7	0.34%	0	-0.5	37	0
18	Apr_5_2012	27.52	28.12	28.01	28.02			27.95(-0.29%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.4	-8	-10000	-4	-21	1.55	51%	0	-30	0.34%	0	-1	36	0
19	Apr_4_2012	27.52	28.13	28.01	28.04			28.03(0.04%)	DT	HoldShort	-50	-0.1	-5	-10000	2	-26	1.72	54%	0.04	-25	0.34%	0	-0.6	41	0
20	Apr_3_2012	27.51	28.14	28.02	28.03			28.02(-0.28%)	DT	HoldShort	-50	-0.1	-11	-10000	2	-49	0.96	49%	0	-24.6	0.35%	0	-0.8	27	0

21	Apr_2_2012	27.51	28.15	28.02	28.02			28.1(0.29%)	DP	OpenShort	-65	0.5	-16	-10000	4	-75	3.71	49%	0.04	-24.6	0.37%	0	-0.3	25	0
22	Mar_30_2012	27.5	28.16	28.03	28			28.02(0%)	DP	OpenShort	-65	0.1	-25	-10000	-2	-95	0.65	49%	0	-18.3	0.37%	0	-0.8	31	0
23	Mar_29_2012	27.5	28.17	28.05	28.01			28.02(0.11%)	DP	OpenShort	-65	0.1	-22	-10000	4	-101	0.8	49%	0.04	-8.8	0.37%	0	-0.9	38	0
24	Mar_28_2012	27.49	28.17	28.06	27.99			27.99(0.07%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	0	-33	-10000	-4	-118	0.81	49%	0	-3.5	0.37%	0	-1.2	38	0
25	Mar_27_2012	27.49	28.18	28.1	28.01			27.97(-0.18%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.3	-29	-10000	-4	-102	0.42	49%		5.3	0.37%	0	-1.3	44	0
i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD

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