Trading Signals: PCY Stock Price Prediction and Forecast

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Thu. Mar. 29, 2012

Trading Signals: PCY Stock Price Prediction and Forecast (Thu. Oct. 11, 2007 - Fri. Dec. 22, 2023)

(Invesco Emerging Markets Sovereign Debt ETF)
PCY latest price $28.0200 (0.11%) ($27.9500 - $28.0300) on Thu. Mar. 29, 2012.

Trend Analysis and Forecast

Average Daily Percentage Swing   0.37% (three month average)
RSI   38
Latest Price   $28.0200(0.11%)
Stocks Behave Similarly   Similar Stock List
Top Holdings   Top Holding List
Daily Trend   PCY advances 0.1% a day on average for past five trading days.
Weekly Trend   PCY declines -0.6% a week on average for past two weeks.
Market Behavior   Normal for large cap. Normal for small cap.
Correlated ETFs   Broad market will support PCY advance at 0% a week (0% probability)
JNK(66%)    LQD(61%)    EEM(54%)    EWG(54%)    SPY(52%)
Factors Impacting PCY price   PCY will decline at least -0.185% in a week (0% probabilities).
IGOV(6%)    SHY(7%)    TLT(18%)    GLD(22%)    USO(24%)
Explanation The rally is not sustainable and not supported by the broad market.

Relative Volatility (options are extremely cheap)

Market Trend Strength   -0.185% (StdDev 0.37%)
Hourly BBV 0 ()
Intraday Trend 0.2%

Resistance Level   $28.17
5 Day Moving Average   $28.01(0.04%)
10 Day Moving Average   $28.05(-0.11%)
20 Day Moving Average   $28.17(-0.53%)
To recent high   -1.9%
To recent low   4.7%
Market Cap   $N/A

$. PCY price fluctuates within 0.57% (three month std-dev: 0.37%) daily (68% of days).

Sample size 0 Average positive next day return: 0%(0%) Average negative next day return: 0%(0%) Sample size 0 Average positive next three day return: 0%(0%) Average negative next three day return: %(0%) Sample size 0 Average positive next weekly return: 0%(0%) Average negative next weekly return: 0%(0%)

Analysis News Options Weekly Chart Daily Chart 2 Month Daily Chart

> 20120429

i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD
1	Mar_29_2012	27.5	28.17	28.05	28.01			28.02(0.11%)	DP	OpenShort	-65	0.1	-22	-10000	4	-101	0.8	49%	0.04	-8.8	0.37%	0	-0.9	38	0
2	Mar_28_2012	27.49	28.17	28.06	27.99			27.99(0.07%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	0	-33	-10000	-4	-118	0.81	49%	0	-3.5	0.37%	0	-1.2	38	0
3	Mar_27_2012	27.49	28.18	28.1	28.01			27.97(-0.18%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.3	-29	-10000	-4	-102	0.42	49%	0	5.3	0.37%	0	-1.3	44	0
4	Mar_26_2012	27.49	28.18	28.16	28.03			28.02(-0.07%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.1	-25	-10000	-8	-76	0.35	49%	0	17.5	0.37%	0	-1.1	48	0
5	Mar_23_2012	27.49	28.19	28.2	28.07			28.04(0.36%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	-0.2	-17	-10000	-4	-57	0.65	49%	0.04	33.3	0.37%	0	-0.9	42	0

6	Mar_22_2012	27.48	28.19	28.23	28.09			27.94(-0.46%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.9	-20	-10000	-10	-49	0.81	49%	0	43.3	0.37%	0	-1.4	41	0
7	Mar_21_2012	27.48	28.18	28.26	28.14			28.07(-0.07%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.4	-19	-10000	-14	-32	0.64	51%	0.04	53.1	0.36%	0	-0.6	48	0
8	Mar_20_2012	27.47	28.17	28.26	28.21			28.09(-0.39%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.6	-15	-10000	-18	-4	0.72	51%	0	59.2	0.36%	0	-0.4	53	0
9	Mar_19_2012	27.47	28.16	28.28	28.3			28.2(0.11%)	UD	OpenLong	65	-0.5	2	-10000	-10	36	0.56	53%	0.04	69.3	0.36%	0	0.2	59	0
10	Mar_16_2012	27.46	28.13	28.29	28.35			28.17(0.07%)	UD	OpenLong	65	-0.7	13	-10000	-6	69	0.8	53%	0.04	67.1	0.36%	0	0.2	60	0

11	Mar_15_2012	27.45	28.11	28.3	28.38			28.15(-1.02%)	UD	OpenLong	65	-0.9	20	-10000	-6	98	1.36	49%	0.04	66.3	0.36%	0	0.2	61	0
12	Mar_14_2012	27.44	28.09	28.31	28.41			28.44(-0.42%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.1	43	-10000	12	137	1.69	54%	0.04	68.8	0.35%	0	1.3	76	0
13	Mar_13_2012	27.43	28.06	28.27	28.35			28.56(0.49%)	UT	HoldLong	65	0.8	48	-10000	18	136	1.34	56%	0.07	68.8	0.35%	0	1.9	84	0
14	Mar_12_2012	27.41	28.01	28.22	28.26			28.42(0.39%)	UT	HoldLong	65	0.7	34	-10000	4	122	1.18	54%	0.04	66.3	0.34%	0	1.7	84	0
15	Mar_9_2012	27.4	27.97	28.17	28.24			28.31(0.04%)	UT	HoldLong	65	0.3	37	-10000	4	136	1.89	52%	0.07	67.1	0.34%	0	1.5	85	0

16	Mar_8_2012	27.38	27.94	28.13	28.22			28.3(0.46%)	UT	HoldLong	65	0.3	41	-10000	4	150	0.83	52%	0.04	68.3	0.34%	0	1.6	81	0
17	Mar_7_2012	27.37	27.9	28.09	28.2			28.17(0.18%)	UT	OpenLong	75	-0.1	41	-10000	4	153	0.98	50%	0.04	72.2	0.34%	0	1.2	75	0
18	Mar_6_2012	27.36	27.88	28.06	28.18			28.12(-0.6%)	UD	OpenLong	75	-0.3	41	-10000	4	153	0.51	50%	0.07	74.7	0.34%	0	1.1	66	0
19	Mar_5_2012	27.34	27.85	28.03	28.16			28.29(0.18%)	UT	HoldLong	65	0.6	51	-10000	15	159	0.45	53%	0.04	86.7	0.33%	0	2.1	78	0
20	Mar_2_2012	27.33	27.82	27.96	28.09			28.24(0.25%)	UT	HoldLong	65	0.8	44	-10000	13	136	0.55	59%	0.04	98.5	0.33%	0	2.2	80	0

21	Mar_1_2012	27.32	27.78	27.9	28.03			28.17(0.36%)	UT	HoldLong	65	0.8	37	-10000	12	111	0.66	59%	0.07	108.2	0.35%	0	2.3	79	0
22	Feb_29_2012	27.3	27.75	27.85	27.97			28.07(0.18%)	UT	HoldLong	65	0.6	30	-10000	8	96	0.46	57%	0.04	113.8	0.35%	0	2	78	0
23	Feb_28_2012	27.29	27.71	27.82	27.93			28.02(0.18%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.6	33	-10000	13	94	0.63	57%	0.07	119	0.35%	0	1.9	74	0
24	Feb_27_2012	27.27	27.67	27.79	27.87			27.97(0.18%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.6	31	-10000	14	81	0.46	57%	0.07	108.2	0.35%	0	1.8	67	0
25	Feb_24_2012	27.25	27.64	27.76	27.8			27.92(0.18%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.6	22	-10000	10	57	0.34	57%		88.4	0.35%	0	1.5	67	0
i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD

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