Trading Signals: PCY Stock Price Prediction and Forecast

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Mon. Feb. 13, 2012

Trading Signals: PCY Stock Price Prediction and Forecast (Thu. Oct. 11, 2007 - Fri. Dec. 22, 2023)

(Invesco Emerging Markets Sovereign Debt ETF)
PCY latest price $27.7400 (0.36%) ($27.6900 - $27.7600) on Mon. Feb. 13, 2012.

Trend Analysis and Forecast

Average Daily Percentage Swing   0.4% (three month average)
RSI   85
Latest Price   $27.7400(0.36%)
Stocks Behave Similarly   Similar Stock List
Top Holdings   Top Holding List
Daily Trend   PCY advances 0.1% a day on average for past five trading days.
Weekly Trend   PCY advances 0.9% a week on average for past two weeks.
Market Behavior   Normal for large cap. Normal for small cap.
Correlated ETFs   Broad market will support PCY advance at 0% a week (0% probability)
JNK(66%)    LQD(61%)    EEM(54%)    EWG(54%)    SPY(52%)
Factors Impacting PCY price   PCY will decline at least -0.2% in a week (0% probabilities).
IGOV(6%)    SHY(7%)    TLT(18%)    GLD(22%)    USO(24%)
Explanation The rally is not sustainable and not supported by the broad market.

Relative Volatility (options are extremely cheap)

Market Trend Strength   -0.2% (StdDev 0.4%)
Hourly BBV 0 ()
Intraday Trend 0%

5 Day Moving Average   $27.65(0.33%)
10 Day Moving Average   $27.6(0.51%)
20 Day Moving Average   $27.35(1.43%)
To recent high   0%
To recent low   3.9%
Market Cap   $N/A

$. PCY price fluctuates within 1.06% (three month std-dev: 0.4%) daily (68% of days).

Sample size 0 Average positive next day return: 0%(0%) Average negative next day return: 0%(0%) Sample size 0 Average positive next three day return: 0%(0%) Average negative next three day return: %(0%) Sample size 0 Average positive next weekly return: 0%(0%) Average negative next weekly return: 0%(0%)

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> 20120313

i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD
1	Feb_13_2012	27.12	27.35	27.6	27.65			27.74(0.36%)	UT	HoldLong	65	0.3	37	-10000	4	134	0.75	41%	0.04	61.3	0.4%	0	1.3	85	0
2	Feb_10_2012	27.11	27.3	27.55	27.65			27.64(0%)	UD	OpenLong	65	0	34	-10000	0	137	0.42	41%	0.04	53.6	0.4%	0	1.1	70	0
3	Feb_9_2012	27.1	27.27	27.51	27.63			27.64(0.14%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0	38	-10000	2	145	0.47	41%	0	53.8	0.4%	0	1.3	73	0
4	Feb_8_2012	27.1	27.23	27.47	27.62			27.6(-0.07%)	UD	OpenLong	75	-0.1	44	-10000	7	154	0.4	41%	0	46.7	0.41%	0	1.3	74	0
5	Feb_7_2012	27.1	27.2	27.42	27.58			27.62(-0.18%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.1	44	-10000	7	155	0.47	41%	0	43.7	0.41%	0	1.5	76	0

6	Feb_6_2012	27.1	27.17	27.36	27.54			27.67(0.11%)	UT	HoldLong	65	0.5	52	-10000	16	160	0.83	41%	0.04	38.5	0.41%	0	1.9	82	0
7	Feb_3_2012	27.09	27.14	27.3	27.45			27.64(0.33%)	UT	HoldLong	65	0.8	51	-10000	16	156	0.6	41%	0	29.4	0.41%	0	2.2	80	0
8	Feb_2_2012	27.09	27.11	27.24	27.36			27.55(0.47%)	UT	OpenLong	75	1	42	-10000	11	133	0.72	41%	-0.04	16.2	0.41%	0	2.2	67	0
9	Feb_1_2012	27.1	27.09	27.19	27.3			27.42(0.04%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.7	38	-10000	11	120	0.81	38%	0	9.5	0.41%	0	1.9	65	0
10	Jan_31_2012	27.1	27.08	27.14	27.24			27.41(0.59%)	UT	OpenLong	75	1.1	38	-10000	16	102	1.89	38%	0	-5.1	0.41%	0	2.1	63	0

11	Jan_30_2012	27.1	27.08	27.07	27.15			27.25(0.29%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.7	18	-10000	4	59	0.74	33%	-0.04	-19.2	0.4%	0	1.3	55	0
12	Jan_27_2012	27.11	27.07	27.03	27.13			27.17(-0.33%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.3	12	-10000	4	36	0.44	41%	-0.04	-20	0.4%	0	0.7	51	0
13	Jan_26_2012	27.12	27.07	27.01	27.11			27.26(0.63%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.9	13	-10000	9	24	0.88	41%	-0.04	-20.3	0.42%	0	1.1	53	0
14	Jan_25_2012	27.13	27.08	26.97	27.06			27.09(0.41%)	N/A	N/A	0	0.2	2	-10000	5	-7	0.4	37%	0	-25.4	0.42%	0	0.1	40	0
15	Jan_24_2012	27.13	27.09	26.96	27.03			26.98(-0.63%)	N/A	N/A	0	-0.3	2	-10000	9	-21	0.59	37%	-0.04	-25.4	0.42%	0	-0.6	45	0

16	Jan_23_2012	27.14	27.09	26.97	26.98			27.15(0.3%)	DP	OpenShort	-65	1	-2	-10000	13	-47	0.63	39%	0	-27	0.41%	0	0.3	40	0
17	Jan_20_2012	27.14	27.1	26.96	26.91			27.07(0.26%)	DP	OpenShort	-65	0.9	-20	-10000	3	-87	0.37	39%	-0.04	-37.9	0.41%	0	-0.2	37	0
18	Jan_19_2012	27.15	27.11	26.97	26.89			27(0.26%)	DP	OpenShort	-65	0.6	-25	-10000	2	-105	0.59	39%	-0.04	-39.4	0.41%	0	-0.6	36	0
19	Jan_18_2012	27.16	27.12	26.99	26.88			26.93(0.64%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	0.3	-30	-10000	-3	-111	1.01	39%	-0.04	-42.4	0.41%	0	-1.1	35	0
20	Jan_17_2012	27.17	27.13	27.01	26.9			26.76(-0.07%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.8	-39	-10000	-11	-121	0.83	34%	-0.04	-43.9	0.4%	0	-2.1	28	0

21	Jan_13_2012	27.18	27.15	27.07	26.96			26.78(-0.7%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-1.2	-35	-10000	-13	-100	0.73	34%	-0.04	-49.1	0.4%	0	-2.5	29	0
22	Jan_12_2012	27.19	27.17	27.13	27.03			26.97(0%)	DT	HoldShort	-50	-0.5	-23	-10000	-6	-74	0.75	45%	-0.04	-41.7	0.4%	0	-1.5	34	0
23	Jan_11_2012	27.2	27.18	27.16	27.06			26.97(-0.11%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.7	-24	-10000	-11	-63	0.55	45%	0	-40.9	0.41%	0	-1.8	36	0
24	Jan_10_2012	27.2	27.2	27.2	27.12			27(-0.26%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-1.1	-11	-10000	-3	-35	0.96	51%	-0.04	-32.5	0.41%	0	-1.8	44	0
25	Jan_9_2012	27.21	27.21	27.22	27.14			27.07(-0.18%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.8	-14	-10000	-10	-25	0.3	51%		-33.3	0.43%	0	-1.6	51	0
i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD

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