Trading Signals: PCY Stock Price Prediction and Forecast

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Tue. Dec. 6, 2011

Trading Signals: PCY Stock Price Prediction and Forecast (Thu. Oct. 11, 2007 - Fri. Dec. 22, 2023)

(Invesco Emerging Markets Sovereign Debt ETF)
PCY latest price $27.2800 (0.15%) ($27.2500 - $27.3400) on Tue. Dec. 6, 2011.

Trend Analysis and Forecast

Average Daily Percentage Swing   0.57% (three month average)
RSI   44
Latest Price   $27.2800(0.15%)
Stocks Behave Similarly   Similar Stock List
Top Holdings   Top Holding List
Daily Trend   PCY advances 0.3% a day on average for past five trading days.
Weekly Trend   PCY declines -0.1% a week on average for past two weeks.
Market Behavior   Normal for large cap. Normal for small cap.
Correlated ETFs   Broad market will support PCY advance at 0% a week (0% probability)
JNK(65%)    LQD(61%)    EEM(53%)    EWG(53%)    SPY(52%)
Factors Impacting PCY price   PCY will decline at least -0.285% in a week (0% probabilities).
IGOV(6%)    SHY(7%)    TLT(18%)    GLD(22%)    USO(24%)
Explanation The rally is not sustainable and not supported by the broad market.

Relative Volatility (options are extremely cheap)

Market Trend Strength   -0.285% (StdDev 0.57%)
Hourly BBV 0 ()
Intraday Trend -0%

5 Day Moving Average   $27.13(0.55%)
10 Day Moving Average   $26.99(1.07%)
20 Day Moving Average   $27.21(0.26%)
To recent high   -2.6%
To recent low   4.9%
Market Cap   $N/A

$. PCY price fluctuates within 1.25% (three month std-dev: 0.57%) daily (68% of days).

Sample size 0 Average positive next day return: 0%(0%) Average negative next day return: 0%(0%) Sample size 0 Average positive next three day return: 0%(0%) Average negative next three day return: %(0%) Sample size 0 Average positive next weekly return: 0%(0%) Average negative next weekly return: 0%(0%)

Analysis News Options Weekly Chart Daily Chart 2 Month Daily Chart

> 20120106

i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD
1	Dec_6_2011	27.26	27.21	26.99	27.13			27.28(0.15%)	RB	SmallLong	20	0.4	8	-10000	12	-4	0.79	43%	0	-34.4	0.57%	0	0.2	44	0
2	Dec_5_2011	27.26	27.23	26.99	27.04			27.24(0.04%)	DP	OpenShort	-65	0.6	-3	-10000	12	-49	0.5	43%	0	-35.6	0.57%	0	0	31	0
3	Dec_2_2011	27.26	27.25	26.95	26.95			27.23(1%)	DP	OpenShort	-65	0.8	-12	-10000	13	-86	0.48	43%	0	-39	0.57%	0	-0.1	29	0
4	Dec_1_2011	27.26	27.27	26.94	26.85			26.96(0.07%)	DP	OpenShort	-65	0.3	-30	-10000	4	-131	1.14	39%	0	-44.6	0.56%	0	-0.8	21	0
5	Nov_30_2011	27.26	27.3	26.97	26.85			26.94(0.48%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	0.3	-39	-10000	0	-154	0.69	39%	0	-43.2	0.56%	0	-0.9	22	0

6	Nov_29_2011	27.26	27.32	27.01	26.82			26.81(0%)	DP	OpenShort	-65	-0	-49	-10000	-5	-179	0.45	39%	-0.04	-40.7	0.55%	0	-1.4	13	0
7	Nov_28_2011	27.27	27.36	27.09	26.86			26.81(0.37%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	-0.1	-52	-10000	-11	-176	0.47	39%	0	-35.9	0.56%	0	-1.6	14	0
8	Nov_25_2011	27.27	27.39	27.18	26.94			26.71(-0.45%)	DT	HoldShort	-65	-0.7	-52	-10000	-15	-161	0.17	39%	0	-24.8	0.56%	0	-2.1	16	0
9	Nov_23_2011	27.27	27.44	27.28	27.05			26.83(-0.45%)	DT	HoldShort	-65	-0.8	-44	-10000	-12	-141	0.5	38%	-0.04	-9.8	0.55%	0	-2.2	20	0
10	Nov_22_2011	27.28	27.46	27.37	27.14			26.95(-0.19%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.8	-38	-10000	-11	-118	0.26	38%	0	4.4	0.55%	0	-2	31	0

11	Nov_21_2011	27.28	27.47	27.45	27.22			27(-0.81%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.9	-38	-10000	-19	-94	0.39	38%	0	17.2	0.55%	0	-2	36	0
12	Nov_18_2011	27.28	27.48	27.53	27.36			27.22(-0.11%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.6	-23	-10000	-13	-51	0.17	40%	0	35.2	0.55%	0	-1	44	0
13	Nov_17_2011	27.28	27.47	27.58	27.46			27.25(-0.18%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.8	-14	-10000	-12	-20	0.39	42%	0	46.3	0.55%	0	-0.8	44	0
14	Nov_16_2011	27.28	27.46	27.63	27.55			27.3(-0.11%)	N/A	N/A	0	-0.9	-6	-10000	-9	5	0.76	42%	0	52.9	0.55%	0	-0.6	42	0
15	Nov_15_2011	27.28	27.45	27.65	27.62			27.33(-1.3%)	N/A	N/A	0	-1	-2	-10000	-12	30	0.79	45%	0.04	58.7	0.55%	0	-0.4	58	0

16	Nov_14_2011	27.27	27.43	27.67	27.71			27.69(-0.18%)	UD	OpenLong	65	-0.1	15	-10000	-3	69	0.99	49%	0	69.2	0.54%	0	0.8	77	0
17	Nov_11_2011	27.27	27.4	27.65	27.73			27.74(0.22%)	UT	HoldLong	65	0	23	-10000	1	90	0.23	45%	0.04	73.3	0.54%	0	1	81	0
18	Nov_10_2011	27.26	27.35	27.62	27.73			27.68(0.07%)	UT	HoldLong	65	-0.1	26	-10000	0	105	0.37	48%	0.04	82.9	0.56%	0	1	82	0
19	Nov_9_2011	27.25	27.32	27.6	27.72			27.66(-0.5%)	UD	OpenLong	75	-0.2	34	-10000	4	125	0.21	50%	0	89.3	0.57%	0	1	78	0
20	Nov_8_2011	27.25	27.27	27.56	27.69			27.8(0.07%)	UT	HoldLong	65	0.3	40	-10000	9	133	0.34	45%	0.04	90.6	0.57%	0	1.5	86	0

21	Nov_7_2011	27.24	27.21	27.5	27.62			27.78(0.33%)	UT	HoldLong	65	0.5	35	-10000	8	117	0.4	45%	0.04	93	0.62%	0	1.6	86	0
22	Nov_4_2011	27.23	27.16	27.43	27.55			27.69(0.14%)	UT	HoldLong	65	0.4	32	-10000	6	108	0.29	42%	0.04	89.5	0.63%	0	1.5	86	0
23	Nov_3_2011	27.22	27.09	27.35	27.5			27.65(0.47%)	UT	HoldLong	65	0.4	27	-10000	2	102	0.48	42%	0.04	86.9	0.63%	0	1.5	86	0
24	Nov_2_2011	27.21	27.03	27.28	27.48			27.52(0.22%)	UT	HoldLong	65	0.1	31	-10000	7	102	0.47	44%	0	82.3	0.63%	0	1.3	77	0
25	Nov_1_2011	27.21	26.96	27.23	27.42			27.46(0.11%)	UT	HoldLong	65	0.1	31	-10000	8	98	1.04	46%		71.1	0.63%	0	1.2	80	0
i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD

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