Trading Signals: PCY Stock Price Prediction and Forecast

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Fri. Aug. 6, 2010

Trading Signals: PCY Stock Price Prediction and Forecast (Thu. Oct. 11, 2007 - Fri. Dec. 22, 2023)

(Invesco Emerging Markets Sovereign Debt ETF)
PCY latest price $27.4700 (0.33%) ($27.3900 - $27.4700) on Fri. Aug. 6, 2010.

Trend Analysis and Forecast

Average Daily Percentage Swing   0.5% (three month average)
RSI   95
Latest Price   $27.4700(0.33%)
Stocks Behave Similarly   Similar Stock List
Top Holdings   Top Holding List
Daily Trend   PCY advances 0.3% a day on average for past five trading days.
Weekly Trend   PCY advances 1.4% a week on average for past two weeks.
Market Behavior   Normal for large cap. Normal for small cap.
Correlated ETFs   Broad market will support PCY advance at 0% a week (0% probability)
JNK(61%)    LQD(59%)    EEM(51%)    SPY(49%)    VWO(49%)
Factors Impacting PCY price   PCY will decline at least -0.25% in a week (0% probabilities).
SHY(7%)    IGOV(7%)    TLT(15%)    GLD(22%)    USO(24%)
Explanation The rally is not sustainable and not supported by the broad market.

Relative Volatility (options are extremely cheap)

Market Trend Strength   -0.25% (StdDev 0.5%)
Hourly BBV 0 ()
Intraday Trend 0.1%

5 Day Moving Average   $27.34(0.48%)
10 Day Moving Average   $27.15(1.18%)
20 Day Moving Average   $26.83(2.39%)
To recent high   0%
To recent low   9%
Market Cap   $N/A

$. PCY price fluctuates within 1.42% (three month std-dev: 0.5%) daily (68% of days).

Sample size 0 Average positive next day return: 0%(0%) Average negative next day return: 0%(0%) Sample size 0 Average positive next three day return: 0%(0%) Average negative next three day return: %(0%) Sample size 0 Average positive next weekly return: 0%(0%) Average negative next weekly return: 0%(0%)

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> 20100906

i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD
1	Aug_6_2010	26.18	26.83	27.15	27.34			27.47(0.33%)	UT	HoldLong	65	0.3	52	-10000	13	168	0.39	45%	0.04	76.8	0.5%	0	1.7	95	0
2	Aug_5_2010	26.17	26.78	27.08	27.25			27.38(0.33%)	UT	HoldLong	65	0.4	38	-10000	9	126	0.44	41%	0.04	76.1	0.65%	0	1.6	95	0
3	Aug_4_2010	26.16	26.72	27.01	27.17			27.29(-0.07%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.3	38	-10000	9	125	0.84	41%	0.04	76.3	0.66%	0	1.6	95	0
4	Aug_3_2010	26.15	26.66	26.95	27.09			27.31(0.22%)	UT	HoldLong	65	0.6	37	-10000	9	119	0.76	41%	0.04	75	0.66%	0	1.9	88	0
5	Aug_2_2010	26.14	26.6	26.87	27.01			27.25(0.81%)	UT	HoldLong	65	0.8	35	-10000	9	112	0.7	41%	0.04	76.9	0.66%	0	2.1	88	0

6	Jul_30_2010	26.13	26.54	26.79	26.93			27.03(0.26%)	UT	HoldLong	65	0.3	31	-10000	7	103	0.34	37%	0.04	78	0.66%	0	1.7	87	0
7	Jul_29_2010	26.12	26.5	26.72	26.87			26.96(0.22%)	UT	HoldLong	65	0.3	28	-10000	5	96	0.22	37%	0.04	77.4	0.66%	0	1.6	84	0
8	Jul_28_2010	26.11	26.45	26.66	26.83			26.9(-0.11%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.3	27	-10000	6	91	1.05	37%	0.04	77.5	0.66%	0	1.7	84	0
9	Jul_27_2010	26.1	26.41	26.61	26.78			26.93(0.3%)	UT	HoldLong	65	0.6	29	-10000	9	89	0.38	36%	0.04	77.6	0.66%	0	2	87	0
10	Jul_26_2010	26.09	26.37	26.55	26.7			26.85(0.45%)	UT	HoldLong	65	0.6	28	-10000	9	85	0.25	36%	0.04	74.7	0.66%	0	2	88	0

11	Jul_23_2010	26.08	26.32	26.49	26.62			26.73(-0.04%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.5	26	-10000	9	76	0.29	36%	0.04	71.4	0.66%	0	1.9	87	0
12	Jul_22_2010	26.07	26.28	26.45	26.54			26.74(0.38%)	UT	HoldLong	65	1	25	-10000	9	71	0.5	36%	0.04	68.8	0.66%	0	2.2	87	0
13	Jul_21_2010	26.06	26.25	26.4	26.46			26.64(0.41%)	UT	HoldLong	65	0.9	20	-10000	6	61	0.33	36%	0.04	70.8	0.66%	0	2.1	83	0
14	Jul_20_2010	26.05	26.21	26.36	26.41			26.53(0.34%)	UT	HoldLong	65	0.7	15	-10000	2	55	0.28	36%	0.04	76.9	0.66%	0	1.9	82	0
15	Jul_19_2010	26.04	26.19	26.32	26.39			26.44(0.27%)	UT	HoldLong	65	0.3	18	-10000	5	55	0.45	36%	0.04	94.7	0.66%	0	1.7	78	0

16	Jul_16_2010	26.03	26.16	26.28	26.35			26.37(0.19%)	UT	HoldLong	65	0.1	14	-10000	1	52	0.17	36%	0.04	94.7	0.66%	0	1.4	81	0
17	Jul_15_2010	26.02	26.14	26.26	26.34			26.32(-0.3%)	UD	OpenLong	75	-0.1	14	-10000	1	54	0.22	36%	0.04	100	0.66%	0	1.2	74	0
18	Jul_14_2010	26.01	26.11	26.24	26.33			26.4(0%)	UT	HoldLong	50	0.4	17	-10000	3	57	0.52	38%	0.04	101.6	0.66%	0	1.8	72	0
19	Jul_13_2010	26	26.08	26.2	26.3			26.4(0.46%)	UT	HoldLong	65	0.6	19	-10000	7	56	0.23	38%	0.04	103.3	0.66%	0	2	76	0
20	Jul_12_2010	25.99	26.05	26.17	26.24			26.28(-0.08%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.3	15	-10000	5	45	0.24	38%	0.04	98.4	0.66%	0	1.4	62	0

21	Jul_9_2010	25.98	26.02	26.13	26.2			26.3(0.04%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.6	13	-10000	5	37	0.26	38%	0.04	93.4	0.66%	0	1.8	69	0
22	Jul_8_2010	25.97	25.99	26.1	26.16			26.29(0.27%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.8	12	-10000	5	34	0.33	38%	0.04	82.3	0.66%	0	1.9	72	0
23	Jul_7_2010	25.96	25.95	26.08	26.12			26.22(0.38%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.6	11	-10000	3	35	0.67	40%	0.08	62.3	0.66%	0	1.5	72	0
24	Jul_6_2010	25.94	25.92	26.08	26.09			26.12(0.15%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.2	10	-10000	1	35	0.5	40%	0	49.3	0.66%	0	1.1	71	0
25	Jul_2_2010	25.94	25.89	26.05	26.08			26.08(-0.04%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0	15	-10000	4	47	0.36	40%		46.6	0.65%	0	1	71	0
i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD

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