Trading Signals: PCY Stock Price Prediction and Forecast

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Thu. Jun. 11, 2009

Trading Signals: PCY Stock Price Prediction and Forecast (Thu. Oct. 11, 2007 - Fri. Dec. 22, 2023)

(Invesco Emerging Markets Sovereign Debt ETF)
PCY latest price $23.5900 (0.64%) ($23.3800 - $23.7600) on Thu. Jun. 11, 2009.

Trend Analysis and Forecast

Average Daily Percentage Swing   1.21% (three month average)
RSI   56
Latest Price   $23.5900(0.64%)
Stocks Behave Similarly   Similar Stock List
Top Holdings   Top Holding List
Daily Trend   PCY advances 0.1% a day on average for past five trading days.
Weekly Trend   PCY advances 0.3% a week on average for past two weeks.
Market Behavior   Normal for large cap. Normal for small cap.
Correlated ETFs   Broad market will support PCY advance at 0% a week (0% probability)
JNK(57%)    LQD(56%)    EEM(49%)    SPY(48%)    EWG(47%)
Factors Impacting PCY price   PCY will decline at least -0.605% in a week (0% probabilities).
SHY(4%)    IGOV(7%)    TLT(13%)    GLD(21%)    USO(24%)
Explanation The rally is not sustainable and not supported by the broad market.

Relative Volatility (options are extremely cheap)

Market Trend Strength   -0.605% (StdDev 1.21%)
Hourly BBV 0 ()
Intraday Trend 0.9%

5 Day Moving Average   $23.6(-0.04%)
10 Day Moving Average   $23.55(0.17%)
20 Day Moving Average   $23.47(0.51%)
To recent high   -0.8%
To recent low   13.6%
Market Cap   $N/A

$. PCY price fluctuates within 0.89% (three month std-dev: 1.21%) daily (68% of days).

Sample size 0 Average positive next day return: 0%(0%) Average negative next day return: 0%(0%) Sample size 0 Average positive next three day return: 0%(0%) Average negative next three day return: %(0%) Sample size 0 Average positive next weekly return: 0%(0%) Average negative next weekly return: 0%(0%)

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i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD
1	Jun_11_2009	22	23.47	23.55	23.6			23.59(0.64%)	UT	OpenLong	75	-0	6	-10000	2	17	0.14	56%	0.09	20.2	1.21%	0	0.6	56	0
2	Jun_10_2009	21.98	23.47	23.54	23.57			23.44(-0.76%)	UD	OpenLong	75	-0.6	5	-10000	1	15	0.17	56%	0.09	13.3	1.21%	0	-0	53	0
3	Jun_9_2009	21.96	23.47	23.56	23.56			23.62(0.17%)	UT	HoldLong	50	0.3	2	-10000	-2	13	0.15	56%	0.09	20	1.21%	0	0.8	49	0
4	Jun_8_2009	21.94	23.45	23.54	23.59			23.58(-0.88%)	UD	OpenLong	75	-0	6	-10000	2	19	0.11	56%	0.14	37.8	1.22%	0	0.6	56	0
5	Jun_5_2009	21.91	23.44	23.52	23.56			23.79(1.54%)	UT	OpenLong	75	1.2	8	-10000	4	18	0.12	56%	0.09	49.4	1.24%	0	1.7	62	0

6	Jun_4_2009	21.89	23.43	23.48	23.5			23.43(0.17%)	UD	OpenLong	65	-0.4	4	-10000	-1	20	0.24	53%	0.14	61.7	1.26%	0	0	67	0
7	Jun_3_2009	21.86	23.42	23.47	23.51			23.39(-1.6%)	UD	OpenLong	65	-0.6	4	-10000	-3	23	0.17	53%	0.09	75.3	1.28%	0	-0.2	53	0
8	Jun_2_2009	21.84	23.41	23.5	23.55			23.77(1.45%)	UT	OpenLong	75	1	12	-10000	5	34	0.29	57%	0.09	88.9	1.29%	0	1.7	55	0
9	Jun_1_2009	21.82	23.37	23.45	23.55			23.43(-0.17%)	UD	OpenLong	75	-0.2	5	-10000	0	20	0.16	54%	0.09	93.3	1.33%	0	0.3	47	0
10	May_29_2009	21.8	23.34	23.44	23.47			23.47(-0.13%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0	5	-10000	1	18	0.09	54%	0.09	86.9	1.34%	0	0.5	52	0

11	May_28_2009	21.78	23.31	23.38	23.45			23.5(-0.38%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.2	1	-10000	1	2	0.15	54%	0.09	92	1.35%	0	0.7	46	0
12	May_27_2009	21.76	23.28	23.35	23.43			23.59(0.9%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	0.6	-2	-10000	-1	-3	0.18	54%	0.14	94.8	1.36%	0	1.1	54	0
13	May_26_2009	21.73	23.22	23.34	23.44			23.38(-0.04%)	UD	OpenLong	75	-0.2	2	-10000	1	5	0.13	54%	0.05	83.3	1.36%	0	0.5	56	0
14	May_22_2009	21.72	23.17	23.34	23.43			23.39(0%)	UD	OpenLong	65	-0.1	4	-10000	1	14	0.22	54%	0.09	65	1.4%	0	0.5	59	0
15	May_21_2009	21.7	23.12	23.35	23.41			23.39(0%)	UD	OpenLong	65	-0	11	-10000	7	24	0.22	54%	0.14	59.7	1.41%	0	0.6	61	0

16	May_20_2009	21.67	23.07	23.35	23.29			23.39(-1.02%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.2	7	-10000	2	23	0.1	54%	0.18	50.3	1.43%	0	0.7	59	0
17	May_19_2009	21.63	23.03	23.37	23.26			23.63(1.24%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.8	9	-10000	2	28	0.11	54%	0.09	51	1.43%	0	1.3	63	0
18	May_18_2009	21.61	22.96	23.31	23.23			23.34(0.21%)	UT	HoldLong	50	0.2	7	-10000	-2	35	0.09	42%	0.09	51.5	1.46%	0	0.8	67	0
19	May_15_2009	21.59	22.91	23.27	23.27			23.29(2.24%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0	12	-10000	-0	46	0.05	42%	0.09	56.7	1.62%	0	0.8	67	0
20	May_14_2009	21.57	22.87	23.23	23.28			22.78(-2.02%)	UD	OpenLong	65	-1.1	6	-10000	-10	52	0.11	36%	0.05	64.2	1.61%	0	-0.2	62	0

21	May_13_2009	21.56	22.85	23.25	23.46			23.25(-0.94%)	UD	OpenLong	65	-0.4	20	-10000	-1	82	0.05	40%	0.09	78.5	1.6%	0	0.8	72	0
22	May_12_2009	21.54	22.79	23.21	23.48			23.47(-0.34%)	UD	OpenLong	75	-0	27	-10000	4	95	0.05	40%	0.09	84	1.6%	0	1.4	74	0
23	May_11_2009	21.52	22.73	23.11	23.41			23.55(0.77%)	UT	HoldLong	65	0.3	29	-10000	7	93	0.17	40%	0.19	91	1.6%	0	1.7	78	0
24	May_8_2009	21.48	22.65	22.99	23.28			23.37(-1.23%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.2	26	-10000	6	84	0.11	40%	0.14	96.5	1.58%	0	1.6	76	0
25	May_7_2009	21.45	22.58	22.89	23.17			23.66(1.33%)	UT	HoldLong	65	1.1	25	-10000	9	73	0.32	40%		95	1.58%	0	2.4	76	0
i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD

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