Trading Signals: PCY Stock Price Prediction and Forecast

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Thu. Mar. 12, 2009

Trading Signals: PCY Stock Price Prediction and Forecast (Thu. Oct. 11, 2007 - Fri. Dec. 22, 2023)

(Invesco Emerging Markets Sovereign Debt ETF)
PCY latest price $20.9500 (0.24%) ($20.5500 - $21.0200) on Thu. Mar. 12, 2009.

Trend Analysis and Forecast

Average Daily Percentage Swing   2.58% (three month average)
RSI   50
Latest Price   $20.9500(0.24%)
Stocks Behave Similarly   Similar Stock List
Top Holdings   Top Holding List
Daily Trend   PCY advances 0.3% a day on average for past five trading days.
Weekly Trend   PCY advances 0.7% a week on average for past two weeks.
Market Behavior   Normal for large cap. Normal for small cap.
Correlated ETFs   Broad market will support PCY advance at 0% a week (0% probability)
LQD(55%)    JNK(54%)    EEM(48%)    SPY(47%)    EWG(46%)
Factors Impacting PCY price   PCY will decline at least -1.29% in a week (0% probabilities).
SHY(4%)    IGOV(8%)    TLT(12%)    GLD(20%)    USO(23%)
Explanation The rally is not sustainable and not supported by the broad market.

Relative Volatility (options are extremely cheap)

Market Trend Strength   -1.29% (StdDev 2.58%)
Hourly BBV 0 ()
Intraday Trend -0.1%

5 Day Moving Average   $20.64(1.5%)
10 Day Moving Average   $20.46(2.39%)
20 Day Moving Average   $20.51(2.15%)
To recent high   -6.4%
To recent low   12.3%
Market Cap   $N/A

$. PCY price fluctuates within 2.05% (three month std-dev: 2.58%) daily (68% of days).

Sample size 0 Average positive next day return: 0%(0%) Average negative next day return: 0%(0%) Sample size 0 Average positive next three day return: 0%(0%) Average negative next three day return: %(0%) Sample size 0 Average positive next weekly return: 0%(0%) Average negative next weekly return: 0%(0%)

Analysis News Options Weekly Chart Daily Chart 2 Month Daily Chart

> 20090412

i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD
1	Mar_12_2009	19.94	20.51	20.46	20.64			20.95(0.24%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.7	7	-10000	3	17	0.05	57%	0.25	-40.5	2.58%	0	1	50	0
2	Mar_11_2009	19.89	20.52	20.4	20.57			20.9(0.87%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.7	8	-10000	6	13	0.04	46%	0.2	-44.3	2.58%	0	0.8	54	0
3	Mar_10_2009	19.85	20.54	20.31	20.41			20.72(1.32%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.7	7	-10000	7	5	0.03	46%	0.15	-50.7	2.74%	0	0.4	58	0
4	Mar_9_2009	19.82	20.57	20.27	20.21			20.45(1.39%)	DP	OpenShort	-65	0.5	-1	-10000	3	-14	0.04	46%	0.15	-56.9	2.76%	0	-0.2	45	0
5	Mar_6_2009	19.79	20.62	20.26	20.14			20.17(-2.04%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	0.1	-10	-10000	-3	-29	0.03	46%	0.05	-61.4	2.86%	0	-0.8	41	0

6	Mar_5_2009	19.78	20.69	20.32	20.24			20.59(2.44%)	DP	OpenShort	-65	0.6	-6	-10000	1	-26	0.06	46%	0.1	-57.1	2.87%	0	-0.2	43	0
7	Mar_4_2009	19.76	20.72	20.3	20.22			20.1(1.88%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	-0.2	-9	-10000	0	-36	0.05	54%	0	-62.1	2.86%	0	-1.1	39	0
8	Mar_3_2009	19.76	20.78	20.29	20.21			19.73(-1.89%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.8	-15	-10000	-4	-49	0.07	54%	0.05	-73.4	2.95%	0	-1.8	34	0
9	Mar_2_2009	19.75	20.87	20.42	20.34			20.11(-2.8%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.4	-13	-10000	-2	-47	0.05	54%	0.1	-77.6	2.95%	0	-1.4	34	0
10	Feb_27_2009	19.73	20.96	20.53	20.39			20.69(1.12%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	0.5	-13	-10000	-1	-47	0.03	54%	0.05	-74.8	2.92%	0	-0.5	41	0

11	Feb_26_2009	19.72	21.02	20.58	20.39			20.46(1.94%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	0.1	-12	-10000	0	-48	0.03	54%	0.1	-74.9	2.95%	0	-1	37	0
12	Feb_25_2009	19.7	21.1	20.66	20.41			20.07(-1.52%)	DT	HoldShort	-50	-0.6	-12	-10000	1	-49	0.08	54%	0	-69.4	2.96%	0	-1.7	32	0
13	Feb_24_2009	19.7	21.2	20.78	20.38			20.38(0.25%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	0	-16	-10000	-4	-52	0.07	63%	0.05	-67.6	3.01%	0	-1.4	41	0
14	Feb_23_2009	19.69	21.3	20.9	20.51			20.33(-2.4%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.3	-15	-10000	-5	-43	0.05	63%	-0.1	-50.3	3.29%	0	-1.6	35	0
15	Feb_20_2009	19.71	21.38	21.01	20.69			20.83(1.81%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	0.2	-12	-10000	-3	-37	0.04	56%	-0.1	-40.4	3.4%	0	-1	36	0

16	Feb_19_2009	19.73	21.45	21.07	20.78			20.46(2.81%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	-0.6	-12	-10000	-4	-35	0.14	56%	-0.15	-27	3.43%	0	-1.7	33	0
17	Feb_18_2009	19.76	21.52	21.18	20.94			19.9(-5.42%)	DT	HoldShort	-65	-2	-15	-10000	-8	-35	0.15	56%	-0.1	-18.7	3.43%	0	-3.1	20	0
18	Feb_17_2009	19.78	21.52	21.32	21.22			21.04(-0.89%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.5	-10	-10000	-3	-29	0.13	61%	-0.45	-2.3	3.35%	0	-1.5	27	0
19	Feb_13_2009	19.87	21.61	21.38	21.33			21.23(-0.14%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.3	-8	-10000	-1	-30	0.03	61%	-0.1	-5.1	3.33%	0	-1	26	0
20	Feb_12_2009	19.89	21.62	21.44	21.37			21.26(-0.14%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.3	-8	-10000	-1	-29	0.05	61%	-0.05	-9.7	3.33%	0	-0.9	40	0

21	Feb_11_2009	19.9	21.61	21.49	21.42			21.29(-0.05%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.3	-8	-10000	-1	-30	0.07	61%	-0.05	-11.9	3.33%	0	-0.8	37	0
22	Feb_10_2009	19.91	21.61	21.57	21.45			21.3(-1.25%)	DT	HoldShort	-50	-0.4	-6	-10000	1	-25	0.04	61%	0	-1.1	3.35%	0	-0.8	45	0
23	Feb_9_2009	19.91	21.62	21.66	21.42			21.57(0.56%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	0.4	-6	-10000	-0	-23	0.05	61%	0.05	-16.2	3.35%	0	-0.1	53	0
24	Feb_6_2009	19.9	21.63	21.73	21.43			21.45(-0.23%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	0	-5	-10000	-2	-13	0.14	65%	0	-6.8	3.44%	0	-0.4	58	0
25	Feb_5_2009	19.9	21.65	21.78	21.52			21.5(0.33%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	-0	-2	-10000	-1	-4	0.06	65%		18	3.46%	0	-0.4	55	0
i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD

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