Trading Signals: PCY Stock Price Prediction and Forecast

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Mon. Dec. 22, 2008

Trading Signals: PCY Stock Price Prediction and Forecast (Thu. Oct. 11, 2007 - Fri. Dec. 22, 2023)

(Invesco Emerging Markets Sovereign Debt ETF)
PCY latest price $20.8900 (2.65%) ($20.1900 - $21.5600) on Mon. Dec. 22, 2008.

Trend Analysis and Forecast

Average Daily Percentage Swing   5.56% (three month average)
RSI   60
Latest Price   $20.8900(2.65%)
Stocks Behave Similarly   Similar Stock List
Top Holdings   Top Holding List
Daily Trend   PCY advances 2.3% a day on average for past five trading days.
Weekly Trend   PCY advances 0.9% a week on average for past two weeks.
Market Behavior   Normal for large cap. Normal for small cap.
Correlated ETFs   Broad market will support PCY advance at 0% a week (0% probability)
LQD(51%)    JNK(48%)    EEM(43%)    PEJ(42%)    SPY(42%)
Factors Impacting PCY price   PCY will decline at least -2.78% in a week (0% probabilities).
SHY(3%)    TLT(10%)    GLD(17%)    USO(21%)    TIP(26%)
Explanation The rally is not sustainable and not supported by the broad market.

Relative Volatility (options are extremely cheap)

Market Trend Strength   -2.78% (StdDev 5.56%)
Hourly BBV 0 ()
Intraday Trend -3.1%

5 Day Moving Average   $20.01(4.4%)
10 Day Moving Average   $20.06(4.14%)
20 Day Moving Average   $19.63(6.42%)
To recent high   -22.6%
To recent low   53%
Market Cap   $N/A

$. PCY price fluctuates within 4.89% (three month std-dev: 5.56%) daily (68% of days).

Sample size 0 Average positive next day return: 0%(0%) Average negative next day return: 0%(0%) Sample size 0 Average positive next three day return: 0%(0%) Average negative next three day return: %(0%) Sample size 0 Average positive next weekly return: 0%(0%) Average negative next weekly return: 0%(0%)

Analysis News Options Weekly Chart Daily Chart 2 Month Daily Chart

> 20090122

i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD
1	Dec_22_2008	20.79	19.63	20.06	20.01			20.89(2.65%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.9	9	-10000	8	13	0.04	54%	-0.19	58.7	5.56%	0	1.3	60	0
2	Dec_19_2008	20.83	19.41	20.01	19.56			20.35(-0.97%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.7	3	-10000	2	6	0.05	54%	-0.19	28.9	5.57%	0	0.8	60	0
3	Dec_18_2008	20.87	19.27	19.95	19.44			20.55(6.42%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.9	5	-10000	4	7	0.04	55%	-0.14	19.9	5.57%	0	1.1	59	0
4	Dec_17_2008	20.9	19.14	19.88	19.24			19.31(1.9%)	N/A	N/A	0	0.1	-4	-10000	-6	4	0.04	50%	-0.29	13.7	5.55%	0	0.1	58	0
5	Dec_16_2008	20.96	19.1	19.85	19.59			18.95(1.61%)	N/A	N/A	0	-0.5	-4	-10000	-9	13	0.07	49%	-0.24	21	5.79%	0	-0.1	53	0

6	Dec_15_2008	21.01	19.1	19.88	20.13			18.65(-5.47%)	UD	OpenLong	65	-1.2	5	-10000	-6	36	0.08	49%	-0.28	31.5	5.8%	0	-0.4	57	0
7	Dec_12_2008	21.07	19.08	19.91	20.5			19.73(0.92%)	UT	OpenLong	75	-0.6	16	-10000	-0	65	0.09	49%	-0.19	36.9	5.76%	0	0.5	72	0
8	Dec_11_2008	21.11	19.03	19.86	20.52			19.55(-7.21%)	UD	OpenLong	65	-0.8	18	-10000	-1	75	0.08	48%	-0.19	39.7	5.76%	0	0.4	62	0
9	Dec_10_2008	21.15	18.98	19.76	20.59			21.07(-2.72%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.4	28	-10000	8	86	0.04	50%	-0.19	41	5.7%	0	1.8	64	0
10	Dec_9_2008	21.19	18.85	19.54	20.12			21.66(5.66%)	UT	OpenLong	75	1.4	26	-10000	9	76	0.12	50%	-0.09	33.9	5.69%	0	2.6	64	0

11	Dec_8_2008	21.21	18.71	19.16	19.61			20.5(3.54%)	UT	OpenLong	75	1	19	-10000	6	58	0.07	50%	-0.19	31.8	5.64%	0	2.1	60	0
12	Dec_5_2008	21.25	18.65	18.75	19.26			19.8(-0.55%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.7	11	-10000	3	35	0.03	50%	-0.23	41.3	5.62%	0	1.5	57	0
13	Dec_4_2008	21.3	18.57	18.51	19.11			19.91(6.19%)	UT	OpenLong	75	1.1	10	-10000	5	24	0.03	50%	-0.14	46.5	5.62%	0	1.8	56	0
14	Dec_3_2008	21.33	18.51	18.31	18.82			18.75(-1.83%)	UD	OpenLong	65	-0.1	2	-10000	-1	10	0.04	48%	-0.23	63.8	5.56%	0	0.4	52	0
15	Dec_2_2008	21.38	18.49	18.28	18.85			19.1(1.87%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.4	6	-10000	4	12	0.03	48%	-0.23	96.2	5.56%	0	0.9	52	0

16	Dec_1_2008	21.43	18.44	18.2	18.63			18.75(-1.52%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.2	8	-10000	10	3	0.03	48%	-0.28	120.4	5.55%	0	0.5	47	0
17	Nov_28_2008	21.49	18.33	18.17	18.13			19.04(3.25%)	DP	OpenShort	-65	1.1	-1	-10000	6	-20	0.02	48%	-0.37	94.8	5.55%	0	0.9	46	0
18	Nov_26_2008	21.57	18.23	18.13	17.81			18.44(-2.49%)	DP	OpenShort	-65	0.6	-7	-10000	1	-31	0.06	48%	-0.28	75.1	5.49%	0	0.2	52	0
19	Nov_25_2008	21.63	18.08	18.14	17.74			18.91(5.06%)	DP	OpenShort	-65	0.9	-7	-10000	2	-34	0.02	48%	-0.28	55.8	5.49%	0	0.6	51	0
20	Nov_24_2008	21.69	17.86	18.1	17.65			18(10.7%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	0.2	-11	-10000	-2	-39	0.05	48%	-0.18	36	5.45%	0	0.1	48	0

21	Nov_21_2008	21.73	17.67	18.21	17.75			16.26(-6.87%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.9	-15	-10000	-9	-34	0.06	45%	-0.37	23	5.27%	0	-0.8	40	0
22	Nov_20_2008	21.81	17.59	18.55	18.2			17.46(-3.38%)	N/A	N/A	0	-0.4	-5	-10000	-6	-0	0.02	47%	-0.32	20.7	5.21%	0	-0.1	64	0
23	Nov_19_2008	21.88	17.48	18.66	18.47			18.07(-2.01%)	UD	OpenLong	65	-0.2	3	-10000	-2	19	0.04	47%	-0.32	15.4	5.2%	0	0.3	61	0
24	Nov_18_2008	21.95	17.38	18.74	18.57			18.44(-0.32%)	UD	OpenLong	65	-0.1	10	-10000	-1	44	0.04	47%	-0.27	9.5	5.19%	0	0.6	74	0
25	Nov_17_2008	22.01	17.31	18.75	18.63			18.5(-0.27%)	UD	OpenLong	65	-0.1	16	-10000	-3	73	0.02	47%		4.9	5.2%	0	0.7	78	0
i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD

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