Trading Signals: PCY Stock Price Prediction and Forecast

^ PCY: Intraday Hourly Forecast Similar Waves GapOpen Research Timing Gains Losses Strategies Practice

Tue. Nov. 25, 2008

Trading Signals: PCY Stock Price Prediction and Forecast (Thu. Oct. 11, 2007 - Fri. Dec. 22, 2023)

(Invesco Emerging Markets Sovereign Debt ETF)
PCY latest price $18.9100 (5.06%) ($17.9300 - $19.3400) on Tue. Nov. 25, 2008.

Trend Analysis and Forecast

Average Daily Percentage Swing   5.49% (three month average)
RSI   51
Latest Price   $18.9100(5.06%)
Stocks Behave Similarly   Similar Stock List
Top Holdings   Top Holding List
Daily Trend   PCY advances 0.5% a day on average for past five trading days.
Weekly Trend   PCY declines -3.2% a week on average for past two weeks.
Market Behavior   Normal for large cap. Normal for small cap.
Correlated ETFs   Broad market will support PCY advance at 0% a week (0% probability)
LQD(47%)    JNK(46%)    PEJ(41%)    SPY(41%)    EWG(40%)
Factors Impacting PCY price   PCY will decline at least -2.745% in a week (0% probabilities).
SHY(2%)    TLT(9%)    GLD(15%)    USO(19%)    TIP(23%)
Explanation The rally is not sustainable and not supported by the broad market.

Relative Volatility (options are extremely cheap)

Market Trend Strength   -2.745% (StdDev 5.49%)
Hourly BBV 0 ()
Intraday Trend 5.5%

5 Day Moving Average   $17.74(6.6%)
10 Day Moving Average   $18.14(4.24%)
20 Day Moving Average   $18.08(4.59%)
To recent high   -30%
To recent low   38.5%
Market Cap   $N/A

$. PCY price fluctuates within 7.3% (three month std-dev: 5.49%) daily (68% of days).

Sample size 0 Average positive next day return: 0%(0%) Average negative next day return: 0%(0%) Sample size 0 Average positive next three day return: 0%(0%) Average negative next three day return: %(0%) Sample size 0 Average positive next weekly return: 0%(0%) Average negative next weekly return: 0%(0%)

Analysis News Options Weekly Chart Daily Chart 2 Month Daily Chart

> 20081225

i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD
1	Nov_25_2008	21.63	18.08	18.14	17.74			18.91(5.06%)	DP	OpenShort	-65	0.9	-7	-10000	2	-34	0.02	48%	-0.28	55.8	5.49%	0	0.6	51	0
2	Nov_24_2008	21.69	17.86	18.1	17.65			18(10.7%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	0.2	-11	-10000	-2	-39	0.05	48%	-0.18	36	5.45%	0	0.1	48	0
3	Nov_21_2008	21.73	17.67	18.21	17.75			16.26(-6.87%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.9	-15	-10000	-9	-34	0.06	45%	-0.37	23	5.27%	0	-0.8	40	0
4	Nov_20_2008	21.81	17.59	18.55	18.2			17.46(-3.38%)	N/A	N/A	0	-0.4	-5	-10000	-6	-0	0.02	47%	-0.32	20.7	5.21%	0	-0.1	64	0
5	Nov_19_2008	21.88	17.48	18.66	18.47			18.07(-2.01%)	UD	OpenLong	65	-0.2	3	-10000	-2	19	0.04	47%	-0.32	15.4	5.2%	0	0.3	61	0

6	Nov_18_2008	21.95	17.38	18.74	18.57			18.44(-0.32%)	UD	OpenLong	65	-0.1	10	-10000	-1	44	0.04	47%	-0.27	9.5	5.19%	0	0.6	74	0
7	Nov_17_2008	22.01	17.31	18.75	18.63			18.5(-0.27%)	UD	OpenLong	65	-0.1	16	-10000	-3	73	0.02	47%	-0.27	4.9	5.2%	0	0.7	78	0
8	Nov_14_2008	22.07	17.28	18.71	18.77			18.55(-1.38%)	UD	OpenLong	65	-0.1	24	-10000	-4	108	0.03	47%	-0.27	3.5	5.2%	0	0.7	80	0
9	Nov_13_2008	22.13	17.23	18.52	18.97			18.81(1.46%)	UT	OpenLong	75	-0.1	36	-10000	2	139	0.02	47%	-0.23	5.3	5.19%	0	0.9	75	0
10	Nov_12_2008	22.18	17.23	18.35	18.88			18.54(-1.12%)	UD	OpenLong	65	-0.2	38	-10000	-1	153	0.03	47%	-0.31	3.3	5.19%	0	0.7	68	0

11	Nov_11_2008	22.25	17.21	18.05	18.92			18.75(-2.24%)	UD	OpenLong	75	-0.1	40	-10000	1	158	0.01	47%	-0.27	4.7	5.19%	0	0.8	63	0
12	Nov_10_2008	22.31	17.22	17.62	18.89			19.18(-1.94%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.2	40	-10000	5	143	0.03	47%	-0.27	2.6	5.18%	0	1	57	0
13	Nov_7_2008	22.37	17.21	17.08	18.65			19.56(6.42%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.5	38	-10000	14	111	0.13	47%	-0.22	-2.1	5.18%	0	1.3	54	0
14	Nov_6_2008	22.42	17.13	16.55	18.01			18.38(-1.97%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.2	20	-10000	6	60	0.02	45%	-0.31	-21.2	5.11%	0	0.7	52	0
15	Nov_5_2008	22.49	17.15	16.2	17.73			18.75(1.02%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.6	19	-10000	16	28	0.04	45%	-0.27	-32.6	5.11%	0	0.9	49	0

16	Nov_4_2008	22.55	17.12	15.88	17.03			18.56(3.23%)	RB	SmallLong	20	0.8	11	-10000	21	-18	0.1	45%	-0.27	-51.7	5.11%	0	0.8	47	0
17	Nov_3_2008	22.61	17.17	15.71	16.15			17.98(9.84%)	N/A	N/A	0	0.9	-0	-10000	22	-67	0.07	45%	-0.31	-65.7	5.09%	0	0.4	43	0
18	Oct_31_2008	22.68	17.25	15.66	15.29			16.37(-3.76%)	DP	OpenShort	-65	0.5	-20	-10000	12	-115	0.06	42%	-0.4	-79.9	4.93%	0	-0.4	36	0
19	Oct_30_2008	22.77	17.53	15.77	14.86			17.01(11.76%)	DP	OpenShort	-65	0.9	-26	-10000	11	-136	0.09	42%	-0.39	-79.8	4.91%	0	-0.2	45	0
20	Oct_29_2008	22.86	17.76	15.91	14.46			15.22(7.26%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	0.3	-45	-10000	-4	-166	0.1	37%	-0.44	-76.9	4.67%	0	-1	32	0

21	Oct_28_2008	22.96	18.16	16.25	14.59			14.19(3.96%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	-0.1	-56	-10000	-18	-169	0.08	33%	-0.48	-73.9	4.56%	0	-1.5	28	0
22	Oct_27_2008	23.07	18.57	16.78	15.21			13.65(-4.14%)	DT	HoldShort	-65	-0.5	-56	-10000	-24	-153	0.07	33%	-0.52	-60.5	4.53%	0	-1.6	20	0
23	Oct_24_2008	23.19	19.22	17.38	16.09			14.24(-5.07%)	DT	HoldShort	-65	-0.6	-45	-10000	-19	-121	0.05	35%	-0.51	-50.7	4.53%	0	-1.7	23	0
24	Oct_23_2008	23.31	19.66	17.82	16.8			15(-5.6%)	DT	HoldShort	-65	-0.7	-44	-10000	-19	-118	0.08	35%	-0.47	-45.4	4.5%	0	-1.7	20	0
25	Oct_22_2008	23.42	20.07	18.24	17.55			15.89(-7.94%)	DT	HoldShort	-65	-0.6	-39	-10000	-15	-109	0.09	37%		-39.2	4.46%	0	-1.6	22	0
i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD

Click to see actual return for next trading day.