Trading Signals: PCY Stock Price Prediction and Forecast

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Mon. Aug. 11, 2008

Trading Signals: PCY Stock Price Prediction and Forecast (Thu. Oct. 11, 2007 - Fri. Dec. 22, 2023)

(Invesco Emerging Markets Sovereign Debt ETF)
PCY latest price $24.5000 (0.62%) ($24.3800 - $24.6100) on Mon. Aug. 11, 2008.

Trend Analysis and Forecast

Average Daily Percentage Swing   1.01% (three month average)
RSI   50
Latest Price   $24.5000(0.62%)
Stocks Behave Similarly   Similar Stock List
Top Holdings   Top Holding List
Daily Trend   PCY advances 0.1% a day on average for past five trading days.
Weekly Trend   PCY advances 0.6% a week on average for past two weeks.
Market Behavior   Normal for large cap. Normal for small cap.
Correlated ETFs   Broad market will support PCY advance at 0% a week (0% probability)
JNK(36%)    SPY(35%)    EEM(33%)    EWG(33%)    EWY(33%)
Factors Impacting PCY price   PCY will decline at least -0.505% in a week (0% probabilities).
SHY(2%)    TLT(8%)    GLD(13%)    USO(14%)    TIP(21%)
Explanation The rally is not sustainable and not supported by the broad market.

Relative Volatility (options are extremely cheap)

Market Trend Strength   -0.505% (StdDev 1.01%)
Hourly BBV 0 ()
Intraday Trend 0.1%

5 Day Moving Average   $24.43(0.29%)
10 Day Moving Average   $24.41(0.37%)
20 Day Moving Average   $24.25(1.03%)
To recent high   -6%
To recent low   4.3%
Market Cap   $N/A

$. PCY price fluctuates within 1.2% (three month std-dev: 1.01%) daily (68% of days).

Sample size 0 Average positive next day return: 0%(0%) Average negative next day return: 0%(0%) Sample size 0 Average positive next three day return: 0%(0%) Average negative next three day return: %(0%) Sample size 0 Average positive next weekly return: 0%(0%) Average negative next weekly return: 0%(0%)

Analysis News Options Weekly Chart Daily Chart 2 Month Daily Chart

> 20080911

i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD
1	Aug_11_2008	25.27	24.25	24.41	24.43			24.5(0.62%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.2	10	-10000	2	33	0.02	41%	-0.04	5.8	1.01%	0	0.9	50	0
2	Aug_8_2008	25.28	24.22	24.41	24.43			24.35(-0.33%)	UD	OpenLong	75	-0.2	8	-10000	0	30	0.03	41%	-0.04	-3.3	1.01%	0	0.4	48	0
3	Aug_7_2008	25.29	24.22	24.4	24.43			24.43(-0.12%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.1	9	-10000	0	37	0.02	41%	-0.08	-7.3	1.01%	0	0.7	58	0
4	Aug_6_2008	25.31	24.22	24.34	24.41			24.46(0.16%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.2	9	-10000	2	28	0.01	41%	-0.04	-6.3	1.01%	0	0.7	55	0
5	Aug_5_2008	25.32	24.22	24.34	24.41			24.42(0.08%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.1	7	-10000	0	28	0.02	41%	-0.04	-3.1	1.01%	0	0.6	64	0

6	Aug_4_2008	25.33	24.22	24.28	24.41			24.4(0.33%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.1	12	-10000	0	49	0.02	41%	-0.04	-7.8	1.01%	0	0.5	66	0
7	Aug_1_2008	25.34	24.23	24.27	24.38			24.32(-0.45%)	UD	OpenLong	65	-0.2	13	-10000	-2	58	0.03	40%	-0.08	-1.6	1.01%	0	0.3	55	0
8	Jul_31_2008	25.36	24.23	24.25	24.4			24.43(0.33%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.1	24	-10000	12	59	0.02	40%	-0.04	2.2	1.02%	0	0.5	49	0
9	Jul_30_2008	25.37	24.25	24.23	24.25			24.35(-0.25%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.3	13	-10000	8	29	0.02	42%	-0.04	-11	1.02%	0	0.3	46	0
10	Jul_29_2008	25.38	24.24	24.16	24.25			24.41(0.08%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	0.8	-2	-10000	0	-6	0.02	42%	-0.04	-26.5	1.03%	0	0.5	48	0

11	Jul_28_2008	25.39	24.26	24.08	24.15			24.39(-0.04%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	0.7	-7	-10000	-1	-26	0.02	42%	-0.08	-23.6	1.03%	0	0.4	48	0
12	Jul_25_2008	25.41	24.26	24.04	24.16			24.4(2.91%)	DP	OpenShort	-65	0.7	-5	-10000	5	-34	0.04	42%	-0.04	-36.8	1.03%	0	0.5	48	0
13	Jul_24_2008	25.42	24.24	24.03	24.1			23.71(-0.46%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-1.1	-20	-10000	-8	-57	0.16	36%	-0.08	-46.5	0.96%	0	-1.5	36	0
14	Jul_23_2008	25.44	24.29	24.12	24.19			23.82(-2.58%)	DT	HoldShort	-50	-1.1	-8	-10000	2	-38	0.11	36%	-0.04	-45	0.96%	0	-1.4	39	0
15	Jul_22_2008	25.45	24.33	24.19	24.17			24.45(0.12%)	N/A	N/A	0	0.8	6	-10000	18	-31	0.05	39%	-0.08	-52.9	0.9%	0	0.4	55	0

16	Jul_21_2008	25.47	24.34	24.19	23.98			24.42(1.41%)	DP	OpenShort	-65	1.3	-13	-10000	7	-72	0.06	41%	-0.04	-72.8	0.91%	0	0.2	44	0
17	Jul_18_2008	25.48	24.37	24.18	23.9			24.08(-0.5%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	0.5	-26	-10000	-7	-82	0.05	37%	-0.08	-70.4	0.89%	0	-0.8	52	0
18	Jul_17_2008	25.5	24.4	24.24	23.97			24.2(2.2%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	0.6	-22	-10000	-7	-67	0.06	37%	-0.04	-67.9	0.9%	0	-0.5	48	0
19	Jul_16_2008	25.51	24.44	24.27	24.05			23.68(0.77%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	-0.9	-28	-10000	-16	-64	0.02	32%	-0.08	-64.4	0.85%	0	-1.9	40	0
20	Jul_15_2008	25.53	24.5	24.33	24.22			23.5(-2.16%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-2	-28	-10000	-19	-53	0.12	32%	-0.08	-65.3	0.84%	0	-2.8	38	0

21	Jul_14_2008	25.55	24.58	24.46	24.41			24.02(-1.68%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-1.3	-11	-10000	-9	-18	0.03	34%	-0.04	-72	0.81%	0	-1.9	41	0
22	Jul_11_2008	25.56	24.63	24.47	24.5			24.43(-0.81%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.3	-11	-10000	-4	-30	0.02	37%	-0.04	-74.5	0.78%	0	-0.7	40	0
23	Jul_10_2008	25.57	24.66	24.48	24.54			24.63(0.53%)	DP	OpenShort	-65	0.3	-7	-10000	1	-30	0.02	38%	-0.04	-78.9	0.78%	0	-0.1	48	0
24	Jul_9_2008	25.58	24.7	24.47	24.53			24.5(0.16%)	DT	HoldShort	-50	-0.1	-5	-10000	7	-41	0.04	38%	-0.04	-81.7	0.78%	0	-0.6	43	0
25	Jul_8_2008	25.59	24.74	24.48	24.46			24.46(-0.08%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	0	-21	-10000	-6	-67	0.02	38%		-85.8	0.78%	0	-0.8	45	0
i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD

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