Trading Signals: OTRK Stock Price Prediction and Forecast

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Thu. Jul. 21, 2011

Trading Signals: OTRK Stock Price Prediction and Forecast (Tue. Apr. 1, 2003 - Fri. May. 13, 2022)

(Catasys, Inc.)
OTRK latest price $30.0000 (-3.85%) ($27.6000 - $31.2000) on Thu. Jul. 21, 2011.

Trend Analysis and Forecast

Average Daily Percentage Swing   10.61% (three month average)
RSI   52
Latest Price   $30.0000(-3.85%)
Stocks Behave Similarly   Similar Stock List
Daily Trend   OTRK advances 2.6% a day on average for past five trading days.
Weekly Trend   OTRK declines -1.8% a week on average for past two weeks.
Market Behavior   Normal for large cap. Normal for small cap.
Correlated ETFs   Broad market will support OTRK advance at 0% a week (0% probability)
LQD(3%)    TLT(2%)    FXI(1%)    USO(1%)    IWM(0%)
Factors Impacting OTRK price   OTRK will decline at least -5.305% in a week (0% probabilities).
IGOV(-8%)    EWG(-7%)    EWI(-6%)    EWP(-5%)    TIP(-4%)
Explanation The rally is not sustainable and not supported by the broad market.

Relative Volatility (options are extremely cheap)

Market Trend Strength   -5.305% (StdDev 10.61%)
Hourly BBV 0 ()
Intraday Trend 0%

5 Day Moving Average   $28.56(5.04%)
10 Day Moving Average   $28.34(5.86%)
20 Day Moving Average   $29.17(2.85%)
To recent high   -80.2%
To recent low   13.6%
Market Cap   $512m

Ontrak, Inc. provides data analytics based specialized behavioral health management and integrated treatment services to health plans. It offers services through its platform OnTrak solution which is designed to improve member health and at the same time, lower costs to the insurer for underserved populations where behavioral health conditions cause or exacerbate co-existing medical conditions. The company was founded by Terren S. Peizer in February 2003 and is headquartered in Santa Monica, CA.

$. OTRK price fluctuates within 7.27% (three month std-dev: 10.61%) daily (68% of days).

Sample size 1 Average positive next day return: 0%(0%) Average negative next day return: -4%(100%) Sample size 1 Average positive next three day return: 0%(0%) Average negative next three day return: -3.73%(100%) Sample size 1 Average positive next weekly return: 0%(0%) Average negative next weekly return: -5.05%(100%)

Analysis News Options Weekly Chart Daily Chart 2 Month Daily Chart

> 20110821

i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD
1	Jul_21_2011	92.42	29.17	28.34	28.56	29.39	31.32	30(-3.85%)	N/A	N/A	0	0.7	10	550	14	-4	0	31%	-0.77	-68	10.61%	0	0.4	52	0
2	Jul_20_2011	93.14	29.32	28.2	27.84	28.86	29.67	31.2(18.18%)	N/A	N/A	0	1.4	8	310	16	-16	0	31%	-0.77	-70.5	10.67%	0	0.8	51	0
3	Jul_19_2011	93.86	29.41	27.91	27.84	27.53	27.45	26.4(0%)	DT	HoldShort	-50	-0.5	-12	-30	-5	-32	0	23%	-0.85	-66	10.35%	0	-1.2	39	0
4	Jul_18_2011	94.66	29.87	28.27	27.6	28.28	28.05	26.4(-8.33%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.4	-7	20	-0	-28	0	23%	-0.85	-60.1	10.35%	0	-1.3	47	0
5	Jul_15_2011	95.47	30.34	28.75	27.6	28.05	27.6	28.8(9.09%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	0.2	-8	-120	-5	-17	0	23%	-0.83	-53.2	10.53%	0	-0.5	59	0

6	Jul_14_2011	96.27	30.68	28.86	28.08	28.4	27.6	26.4(-12%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.5	-9	60	-4	-25	0	23%	-0.88	-56.4	10.54%	0	-1.4	38	0
7	Jul_13_2011	97.12	31.05	29.34	28.56	28.4	28.5	30(13.64%)	DP	OpenShort	-65	0.5	-3	-30	3	-21	0	25%	-0.85	-64.9	10.49%	0	-0.4	46	0
8	Jul_12_2011	97.95	31.13	29.44	28.32	28.7	28.29	26.4(-8.33%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.6	-15	-60	-9	-33	0	17%	-0.91	-78.4	10.3%	0	-1.6	37	0
9	Jul_11_2011	98.85	31.61	29.72	29.04	29.15	28.89	28.8(0%)	DT	HoldShort	-50	-0.1	-13	-50	-5	-36	0	17%	-0.88	-81	10.27%	0	-1	37	0
10	Jul_8_2011	99.73	31.97	29.53	29.52	29.15	29.1	28.8(0%)	DT	HoldShort	-50	-0.2	-14	-90	-3	-46	0	17%	-0.9	-82.6	10.34%	0	-1.1	37	0

11	Jul_7_2011	100.64	32.54	30.08	29.76	29.48	29.4	28.8(0%)	DT	HoldShort	-50	-0.3	-16	-50	-5	-47	0	17%	-0.93	-69.6	10.34%	0	-1.1	37	0
12	Jul_6_2011	101.58	33.12	30.55	30.24	29.25	29.85	28.8(-4%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.4	-12	50	-2	-41	0	17%	-0.93	-60.4	10.44%	0	-1.2	44	0
13	Jul_5_2011	102.53	33.66	31.02	30.72	29.4	29.55	30(-3.85%)	DT	HoldShort	-50	-0.2	-4	-90	5	-31	0	17%	-0.94	-60.3	10.5%	0	-1	51	0
14	Jul_1_2011	103.5	34.17	31.58	30.48	29.63	28.65	31.2(4%)	DP	OpenShort	-65	0.2	-7	-320	2	-33	0	17%	-0.94	-62.8	11.05%	0	-0.7	45	0
15	Jun_30_2011	104.48	34.64	32.03	29.52	29.93	29.25	30(-3.85%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	0.1	-21	-120	-13	-46	0	17%	-0.97	-70.4	11.24%	0	-1.1	42	0

16	Jun_29_2011	105.5	35.12	32.61	30.48	30.45	29.25	31.2(0%)	DP	OpenShort	-65	0.2	-15	30	-6	-42	0	17%	-0.97	-67.7	11.24%	0	-1	37	0
17	Jun_28_2011	106.53	35.54	32.86	30.96	31.73	30.6	31.2(8.33%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	0.1	-14	-170	-3	-46	0	17%	-0.99	-66.1	11.28%	0	-1	37	0
18	Jun_27_2011	107.59	36.13	32.93	31.44	32.48	30.3	28.8(9.09%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	-0.6	-32	-370	-22	-61	0	17%	-1.04	-62.7	11.26%	0	-1.7	35	0
19	Jun_24_2011	108.72	36.96	33.67	32.88	33.38	32.85	26.4(-24.14%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-1.5	-30	-70	-21	-56	0	17%	-1.08	-54.1	11.19%	0	-2.4	27	0
20	Jun_23_2011	109.91	37.83	34.69	34.8	34.58	34.65	34.8(3.57%)	DP	OpenShort	-65	0	-8	-0	2	-39	0	21%	-0.99	-53.1	11.01%	0	-0.8	37	0

21	Jun_22_2011	111.01	38.14	35.23	34.8	34.8	33.9	33.6(0%)	DT	HoldShort	-50	-0.4	-15	-200	-7	-39	0	21%	-1.03	-55.1	11.14%	0	-1.2	37	0
22	Jun_21_2011	112.17	38.62	35.92	35.04	36.3	34.5	33.6(-6.67%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.4	-12	-240	-4	-36	0	21%	-1.05	-63.9	11.14%	0	-1.4	37	0
23	Jun_20_2011	113.36	39	36.51	35.04	36.6	35.7	36(0%)	DP	OpenShort	-65	0.4	-18	0	-9	-44	0	21%	-1.04	-145.6	11.59%	0	-0.9	35	0
24	Jun_17_2011	114.55	39.46	36.94	35.04	35.9	38.1	36(0%)	DP	OpenShort	-65	0.4	-9	540	3	-45	0	10%	-1.06	-221.5	11.61%	0	-0.9	31	0
25	Jun_16_2011	115.78	39.93	37.39	34.61	35.6	37.5	36(7.14%)	N/A	N/A	0	0.4	0	460	10	-30	0	10%		-269.3	16.6%	0	-1	38	0
i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD

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