Trading Signals: NVS Stock Price Prediction and Forecast

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Mon. Sep. 15, 2014

Trading Signals: NVS Stock Price Prediction and Forecast (Tue. Apr. 1, 2003 - Fri. Oct. 27, 2023)

(Novartis)
NVS latest price $83.2700 (0.45%) ($82.7100 - $83.4600) on Mon. Sep. 15, 2014.

Trend Analysis and Forecast

Average Daily Percentage Swing   0.81% (three month average)
RSI   81
Latest Price   $83.2700(0.45%)
Stocks Behave Similarly   Similar Stock List
Daily Trend   NVS advances 0.2% a day on average for past five trading days.
Weekly Trend   NVS advances 2.3% a week on average for past two weeks.
Market Behavior   Normal for large cap. Normal for small cap.
Correlated ETFs   Broad market will support NVS advance at 0% a week (0% probability)
XLV(60%)    VT(56%)    SPY(55%)    EWG(52%)    EWP(50%)
Factors Impacting NVS price   NVS will decline at least -0.405% in a week (0% probabilities).
VIXM(-23%)    UUP(-14%)    TLT(-12%)    SHY(1%)    IGOV(1%)
Explanation The rally is not sustainable and not supported by the broad market.

Relative Volatility (options are extremely cheap)

Market Trend Strength   -0.405% (StdDev 0.81%)
Hourly BBV 0 ()
Intraday Trend 0.6%

5 Day Moving Average   $83.14(0.16%)
10 Day Moving Average   $82.94(0.4%)
20 Day Moving Average   $80.98(2.83%)
To recent high   -0.2%
To recent low   10.5%
Market Cap   $190.603b

Novartis AG is a holding company, which engages in the development, manufacture, and marketing of healthcare products. It operates through the following segments: Innovative Medicines, Sandoz, and Corporate. The Innovative Medicines segment researches, develops, manufactures, distributes and sells patented pharmaceuticals, and is composed of two business units: Novartis Oncology and Novartis Pharmaceuticals. The Sandoz segment develops, manufactures and markets finished dosage form medicines as well as intermediary products including active pharmaceutical ingredients. The Corporate segment refers to group management and central services. The company was founded on February 29, 1996 and is headquartered in Basel, Switzerland.

$. NVS price fluctuates within 2.64% (three month std-dev: 0.81%) daily (68% of days).

Sample size 0 Average positive next day return: 0%(0%) Average negative next day return: 0%(0%) Sample size 0 Average positive next three day return: 0%(0%) Average negative next three day return: %(0%) Sample size 0 Average positive next weekly return: 0%(0%) Average negative next weekly return: 0%(0%)

Analysis News Options Weekly Chart Daily Chart 2 Month Daily Chart

> 20141015

i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD
1	Sep_15_2014	79.04	80.98	82.94	83.14			83.27(0.45%)	UT	HoldLong	65	0.1	46	-10000	5	170	0.77	56%	0.11	78.4	0.81%	0	1.1	81	0
2	Sep_12_2014	78.95	80.67	82.58	82.98			82.9(-0.64%)	UD	OpenLong	75	-0	45	-10000	3	172	1.22	56%	0.1	76.8	0.81%	0	1	80	0
3	Sep_11_2014	78.87	80.39	82.26	82.89			83.43(0.37%)	UT	HoldLong	65	0.2	49	-10000	5	179	1.07	53%	0.1	79.1	0.81%	0	1.3	85	0
4	Sep_10_2014	78.79	80.05	81.88	82.71			83.12(0.19%)	UT	HoldLong	50	0.2	44	-10000	-1	180	0.88	56%	0.08	78.2	0.82%	0	1.3	85	0
5	Sep_9_2014	78.73	79.7	81.51	82.74			82.96(0.59%)	UT	HoldLong	65	0.1	48	-10000	0	191	1.27	56%	0.1	78.7	0.84%	0	1.4	85	0

6	Sep_8_2014	78.65	79.34	81.1	82.72			82.47(0%)	UD	OpenLong	65	-0.1	67	-10000	18	214	1.46	56%	0.05	76.6	0.84%	0	1.4	87	0
7	Sep_5_2014	78.61	78.99	80.72	82.11			82.47(-0.06%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.2	64	-10000	18	203	1.58	56%	0.1	66.4	0.84%	0	1.5	88	0
8	Sep_4_2014	78.53	78.63	80.34	81.49			82.52(-0.94%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.5	60	-10000	17	187	1.78	56%	0.1	57.4	0.84%	0	1.7	83	0
9	Sep_3_2014	78.45	78.31	79.91	80.9			83.3(0.54%)	UT	HoldLong	65	1.1	63	-10000	24	180	1.82	58%	0.11	49.4	0.83%	0	2.4	91	0
10	Sep_2_2014	78.36	77.94	79.39	80.1			82.85(4.31%)	UT	HoldLong	65	1.5	59	-10000	25	161	6.29	55%	0.19	42.4	0.83%	0	2.7	92	0

11	Aug_29_2014	78.21	77.62	78.82	79.29			79.43(0.11%)	UT	HoldLong	65	0.1	46	-10000	6	164	1.08	46%	0.06	37.7	0.65%	0	1.3	88	0
12	Aug_28_2014	78.16	77.48	78.57	79.13			79.34(-0.29%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.2	46	-10000	5	170	1.4	46%	0.06	31.5	0.66%	0	1.4	89	0
13	Aug_27_2014	78.11	77.35	78.36	79			79.57(0.32%)	UT	HoldLong	65	0.5	54	-10000	10	187	1.26	46%	0.08	23.8	0.66%	0	1.8	92	0
14	Aug_26_2014	78.05	77.27	78.07	78.75			79.32(0.67%)	UT	HoldLong	65	0.5	50	-10000	7	179	1.17	46%	0.09	17.6	0.66%	0	1.8	77	0
15	Aug_25_2014	77.98	77.18	77.76	78.56			78.79(0.18%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.2	51	-10000	11	170	0.89	44%	0.06	10.3	0.66%	0	1.5	70	0

16	Aug_22_2014	77.93	77.11	77.46	78.27			78.65(0%)	UT	HoldLong	50	0.4	46	-10000	14	143	0.74	44%	0.06	-0.8	0.66%	0	1.5	62	0
17	Aug_21_2014	77.88	77.07	77.15	77.91			78.65(0.4%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.7	35	-10000	11	105	2.25	44%	0.05	-12.1	0.66%	0	1.5	63	0
18	Aug_20_2014	77.84	77.06	76.82	77.63			78.34(-0.03%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.7	28	-10000	13	73	0.57	44%	0.05	-17.2	0.66%	0	1.2	61	0
19	Aug_19_2014	77.8	77.07	76.59	77.29			78.36(1.29%)	UT	OpenLong	75	1	21	-10000	17	31	1.01	44%	0.04	-29.5	0.66%	0	1.2	47	0
20	Aug_18_2014	77.77	77.08	76.37	76.86			77.36(0.65%)	N/A	N/A	0	0.5	6	-10000	13	-16	0.66	40%	0.08	-44.9	0.64%	0	0.3	42	0

21	Aug_15_2014	77.71	77.12	76.31	76.53			76.86(-0.47%)	DP	OpenShort	-65	0.3	-3	-10000	12	-47	0.99	38%	0.06	-57.3	0.64%	0	-0.2	42	0
22	Aug_14_2014	77.66	77.2	76.3	76.25			77.22(0.77%)	DP	OpenShort	-65	0.9	-9	-10000	15	-80	0.49	38%	0.06	-66.9	0.64%	0	0	40	0
23	Aug_13_2014	77.61	77.24	76.25	75.88			76.63(0.55%)	DP	OpenShort	-65	0.6	-30	-10000	4	-130	0.71	35%	0.06	-74.1	0.65%	0	-0.5	30	0
24	Aug_12_2014	77.56	77.38	76.38	75.78			76.21(0.65%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	0.3	-39	-10000	-2	-150	1.74	35%	0.05	-72.6	0.64%	0	-0.9	28	0
25	Aug_11_2014	77.52	77.55	76.54	75.83			75.72(0.34%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	-0.1	-48	-10000	-10	-162	0.99	33%		-67.8	0.64%	0	-1.4	21	0
i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD

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