Trading Signals: NVS Stock Price Prediction and Forecast

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Fri. Aug. 3, 2012

Trading Signals: NVS Stock Price Prediction and Forecast (Tue. Apr. 1, 2003 - Fri. Oct. 27, 2023)

(Novartis)
NVS latest price $52.1600 (0.87%) ($52.1100 - $52.5500) on Fri. Aug. 3, 2012.

Trend Analysis and Forecast

Average Daily Percentage Swing   0.83% (three month average)
RSI   74
Latest Price   $52.1600(0.87%)
Stocks Behave Similarly   Similar Stock List
Daily Trend   NVS advances 0.1% a day on average for past five trading days.
Weekly Trend   NVS advances 1.7% a week on average for past two weeks.
Market Behavior   Normal for large cap. Normal for small cap.
Correlated ETFs   Broad market will support NVS advance at 0% a week (0% probability)
SPY(55%)    EWG(52%)    XLP(49%)    EWI(48%)    EWP(48%)
Factors Impacting NVS price   NVS will decline at least -0.415% in a week (0% probabilities).
TLT(-12%)    SHY(1%)    TIP(2%)    IGOV(3%)    GLD(5%)
Explanation The rally is not sustainable and not supported by the broad market.

Relative Volatility (options are extremely cheap)

Market Trend Strength   -0.415% (StdDev 0.83%)
Hourly BBV 0 ()
Intraday Trend -0.2%

5 Day Moving Average   $51.73(0.83%)
10 Day Moving Average   $51.26(1.76%)
20 Day Moving Average   $50.47(3.35%)
To recent high   0%
To recent low   14.6%
Market Cap   $119.393b

Novartis AG is a holding company, which engages in the development, manufacture, and marketing of healthcare products. It operates through the following segments: Innovative Medicines, Sandoz, and Corporate. The Innovative Medicines segment researches, develops, manufactures, distributes and sells patented pharmaceuticals, and is composed of two business units: Novartis Oncology and Novartis Pharmaceuticals. The Sandoz segment develops, manufactures and markets finished dosage form medicines as well as intermediary products including active pharmaceutical ingredients. The Corporate segment refers to group management and central services. The company was founded on February 29, 1996 and is headquartered in Basel, Switzerland.

$. NVS price fluctuates within 2.06% (three month std-dev: 0.83%) daily (68% of days).

Sample size 0 Average positive next day return: 0%(0%) Average negative next day return: 0%(0%) Sample size 0 Average positive next three day return: 0%(0%) Average negative next three day return: %(0%) Sample size 0 Average positive next weekly return: 0%(0%) Average negative next weekly return: 0%(0%)

Analysis News Options Weekly Chart Daily Chart 2 Month Daily Chart

> 20120903

i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD
1	Aug_3_2012	48.39	50.47	51.26	51.73			52.16(0.87%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.4	33	-10000	3	123	3.37	63%	0.08	57.8	0.83%	0	1.6	74	0
2	Aug_2_2012	48.35	50.32	51.09	51.66			51.71(0.35%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.1	40	-10000	7	137	3.66	59%	0.08	62.6	0.83%	0	1.4	74	0
3	Aug_1_2012	48.31	50.2	50.98	51.52			51.53(-0.58%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0	47	-10000	12	150	11.4	59%	0.06	65.1	0.85%	0	1.4	75	0
4	Jul_31_2012	48.28	50.1	50.82	51.27			51.83(0.84%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.6	48	-10000	16	143	4.11	59%	0.06	71.3	0.85%	0	1.9	75	0
5	Jul_30_2012	48.25	49.99	50.6	50.92			51.4(-0.83%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.6	40	-10000	10	128	2.03	59%	0.08	77.5	0.84%	0	1.8	76	0

6	Jul_27_2012	48.21	49.88	50.41	50.71			51.83(1.61%)	UT	OpenLong	75	1.5	39	-10000	13	117	3.14	59%	0.08	83.6	0.84%	0	2.7	71	0
7	Jul_26_2012	48.17	49.71	50.15	50.44			51.01(1.43%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.9	27	-10000	3	100	1.97	56%	0.08	87.4	0.81%	0	2.1	69	0
8	Jul_25_2012	48.13	49.58	49.96	50.38			50.29(0.48%)	UT	OpenLong	75	-0.2	28	-10000	5	96	3.28	52%	0.06	88.4	0.8%	0	1.2	61	0
9	Jul_24_2012	48.1	49.48	49.85	50.29			50.05(-0.64%)	UD	OpenLong	75	-0.4	23	-10000	4	81	4.26	49%	0.04	72.9	0.8%	0	0.9	52	0
10	Jul_23_2012	48.08	49.37	49.74	50.21			50.37(-0.22%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.2	23	-10000	8	66	2.71	46%	0.04	63.5	0.81%	0	1.4	57	0

11	Jul_20_2012	48.06	49.28	49.63	50.05			50.48(-0.47%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.6	22	-10000	11	54	2.22	49%	0.06	66.7	0.83%	0	1.7	61	0
12	Jul_19_2012	48.03	49.16	49.49	49.82			50.72(1.79%)	UT	OpenLong	75	1.3	23	-10000	16	44	2.81	49%	0.04	66.7	0.85%	0	2.3	71	0
13	Jul_18_2012	48.01	49.06	49.34	49.48			49.83(0.36%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.6	11	-10000	6	25	1.29	45%	0.02	75.9	0.82%	0	1.4	67	0
14	Jul_17_2012	48	49	49.33	49.36			49.65(0.16%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.5	17	-10000	9	40	1.54	45%	0.02	89.3	0.82%	0	1.2	69	0
15	Jul_16_2012	47.99	48.91	49.32	49.19			49.57(0.53%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.7	13	-10000	1	47	0.93	49%	-0.02	90.8	0.83%	0	1.1	70	0

16	Jul_13_2012	48	48.81	49.3	49.16			49.31(0.57%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.2	16	-10000	2	57	1.01	49%	-0.04	89.3	0.85%	0	0.8	58	0
17	Jul_12_2012	48.02	48.72	49.23	49.12			49.03(-0.39%)	UD	OpenLong	65	-0.1	12	-10000	-3	57	0.91	49%	-0.02	89.6	0.86%	0	0.4	59	0
18	Jul_11_2012	48.03	48.63	49.19	49.18			49.22(0.8%)	UT	HoldLong	50	0.1	10	-10000	-6	57	0.97	49%	-0.04	92.9	0.87%	0	0.8	54	0
19	Jul_10_2012	48.05	48.52	49.08	49.3			48.83(-1.15%)	UD	OpenLong	65	-0.6	10	-10000	-7	59	1.38	49%	0.02	95.9	0.87%	0	0.4	52	0
20	Jul_9_2012	48.04	48.39	49	49.3			49.4(0.55%)	UT	OpenLong	75	-0.1	20	-10000	0	79	1.48	52%	0	86.8	0.86%	0	1	66	0

21	Jul_6_2012	48.04	48.24	48.91	49.46			49.13(-0.39%)	UD	OpenLong	75	-0.3	28	-10000	5	97	0.95	52%	-0.02	86.6	0.86%	0	0.9	67	0
22	Jul_5_2012	48.05	48.1	48.83	49.35			49.32(-0.96%)	UD	OpenLong	75	-0	32	-10000	8	102	1.48	52%	-0.04	79.7	0.86%	0	1.1	70	0
23	Jul_3_2012	48.07	47.95	48.77	49.18			49.8(0.3%)	UT	HoldLong	65	0.5	41	-10000	17	112	2.04	50%	-0.02	71.4	0.87%	0	1.5	76	0
24	Jul_2_2012	48.08	47.74	48.65	48.83			49.65(0.47%)	UT	HoldLong	65	0.7	41	-10000	17	112	1.61	54%	0.02	62.2	0.87%	0	1.6	78	0
25	Jun_29_2012	48.07	47.54	48.45	48.47			49.42(1.77%)	UT	HoldLong	65	0.8	32	-10000	8	103	1.58	54%		55.4	0.89%	0	1.6	81	0
i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD

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