Trading Signals: NVS Stock Price Prediction and Forecast

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Fri. Feb. 3, 2012

Trading Signals: NVS Stock Price Prediction and Forecast (Tue. Apr. 1, 2003 - Fri. Oct. 27, 2023)

(Novartis)
NVS latest price $49.2700 (0.12%) ($49.1500 - $49.5300) on Fri. Feb. 3, 2012.

Trend Analysis and Forecast

Average Daily Percentage Swing   1.4% (three month average)
RSI   50
Latest Price   $49.2700(0.12%)
Stocks Behave Similarly   Similar Stock List
Daily Trend   NVS advances 0.5% a day on average for past five trading days.
Weekly Trend   NVS declines -1.3% a week on average for past two weeks.
Market Behavior   Normal for large cap. Normal for small cap.
Correlated ETFs   Broad market will support NVS advance at 0% a week (0% probability)
SPY(55%)    EWG(52%)    XLP(49%)    EWI(48%)    EWP(48%)
Factors Impacting NVS price   NVS will decline at least -0.7% in a week (0% probabilities).
TLT(-13%)    TIP(1%)    SHY(1%)    IGOV(5%)    GLD(6%)
Explanation The rally is not sustainable and not supported by the broad market.

Relative Volatility (options are extremely cheap)

Market Trend Strength   -0.7% (StdDev 1.4%)
Hourly BBV 0 ()
Intraday Trend 0%

1 - 5 Day Possible Target   $45.18(-8.3%)
Resistance Level   $49.42
5 Day Moving Average   $48.7(1.17%)
10 Day Moving Average   $48.75(1.07%)
20 Day Moving Average   $49.42(-0.3%)
To recent high   -4.5%
To recent low   7.9%
Market Cap   $112.778b

Novartis AG is a holding company, which engages in the development, manufacture, and marketing of healthcare products. It operates through the following segments: Innovative Medicines, Sandoz, and Corporate. The Innovative Medicines segment researches, develops, manufactures, distributes and sells patented pharmaceuticals, and is composed of two business units: Novartis Oncology and Novartis Pharmaceuticals. The Sandoz segment develops, manufactures and markets finished dosage form medicines as well as intermediary products including active pharmaceutical ingredients. The Corporate segment refers to group management and central services. The company was founded on February 29, 1996 and is headquartered in Basel, Switzerland.

$. NVS price fluctuates within 1.94% (three month std-dev: 1.4%) daily (68% of days).

Sample size 0 Average positive next day return: 0%(0%) Average negative next day return: 0%(0%) Sample size 0 Average positive next three day return: 0%(0%) Average negative next three day return: %(0%) Sample size 0 Average positive next weekly return: 0%(0%) Average negative next weekly return: 0%(0%)

Analysis News Options Weekly Chart Daily Chart 2 Month Daily Chart

> 20120303

i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD
1	Feb_3_2012	49.34	49.42	48.75	48.7			49.27(0.12%)	DP	OpenShort	-65	0.6	-8	-10000	7	-52	2.93	56%	-0.02	-55.2	1.4%	0	-0.2	50	0
2	Feb_2_2012	49.35	49.49	48.69	48.47			49.21(0.51%)	DP	OpenShort	-65	0.7	-16	-10000	4	-75	3.22	56%	0	-56.9	1.43%	0	-0.3	45	0
3	Feb_1_2012	49.35	49.58	48.89	48.32			48.96(1.87%)	DP	OpenShort	-65	0.6	-18	-10000	1	-73	4.42	53%	0	-55.1	1.42%	0	-0.6	45	0
4	Jan_31_2012	49.35	49.7	49.06	48.29			48.06(0.1%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	-0.2	-25	-10000	-8	-75	2.89	47%	0	-49.3	1.43%	0	-1.5	38	0
5	Jan_30_2012	49.35	49.83	49.23	48.56			48.01(-0.21%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.5	-22	-10000	-7	-66	2.49	47%	-0.02	-42.4	1.48%	0	-1.7	37	0

6	Jan_27_2012	49.36	49.95	49.38	48.81			48.11(-0.7%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.7	-18	-10000	-3	-64	2.98	50%	-0.04	-38.4	1.48%	0	-1.9	36	0
7	Jan_26_2012	49.38	50.07	49.6	48.93			48.45(-0.74%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.5	-30	-10000	-17	-68	5.06	50%	-0.04	-36.5	1.51%	0	-1.8	37	0
8	Jan_25_2012	49.4	50.18	49.76	49.56			48.81(-1.19%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.9	-20	-10000	-10	-48	6.84	45%	0	-14.5	1.52%	0	-1.7	36	0
9	Jan_24_2012	49.4	50.26	49.92	49.95			49.4(0.26%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	-0.8	-10	-10000	-2	-35	4.56	45%	0	7.6	1.6%	0	-1.2	37	0
10	Jan_23_2012	49.4	50.3	50.02	50.02			49.27(1.11%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	-1	-9	-10000	-1	-33	7.39	45%	-0.04	12.6	1.6%	0	-1.4	44	0

11	Jan_20_2012	49.42	50.34	50.16	50.04			48.73(-5.51%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-2	-14	-10000	-7	-33	8.44	48%	-0.06	29.3	1.6%	0	-2.4	43	0
12	Jan_19_2012	49.45	50.4	50.38	50.32			51.57(1.56%)	N/A	N/A	0	2.3	4	-10000	9	-12	3.17	54%	0	66.1	1.47%	0	2.1	61	0
13	Jan_18_2012	49.45	50.29	50.32	50			50.78(2.05%)	DP	OpenShort	-65	1.6	-5	-10000	2	-25	4.29	52%	0	68.7	1.47%	0	1	53	0
14	Jan_17_2012	49.45	50.29	50.37	49.91			49.76(0.85%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	-0.3	-9	-10000	-4	-24	2.07	47%	-0.02	64.7	1.45%	0	-0.9	45	0
15	Jan_13_2012	49.46	50.21	50.46	50.04			49.34(-1.63%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-1.2	-9	-10000	-7	-15	2.77	47%	-0.02	73.7	1.46%	0	-1.5	46	0

16	Jan_12_2012	49.47	50.14	50.56	50.3			50.16(0.42%)	N/A	N/A	0	-0.2	-3	-10000	-4	1	2.66	49%	-0.02	85.1	1.45%	0	0	56	0
17	Jan_11_2012	49.48	50.04	50.58	50.43			49.95(-0.77%)	N/A	N/A	0	-0.6	-3	-10000	-7	9	3.42	49%	0	65	1.45%	0	-0.1	56	0
18	Jan_10_2012	49.48	49.96	50.58	50.69			50.34(-0.12%)	UD	OpenLong	65	-0.4	3	-10000	-6	28	2.9	53%	0.02	65.3	1.45%	0	0.4	64	0
19	Jan_9_2012	49.47	49.88	50.64	50.91			50.4(-0.53%)	UD	OpenLong	65	-0.5	12	-10000	-1	50	2.51	53%	0.04	73.3	1.5%	0	0.5	71	0
20	Jan_6_2012	49.45	49.77	50.61	50.94			50.67(-0.26%)	UD	OpenLong	75	-0.3	16	-10000	2	56	1.22	55%	0.04	72.3	1.49%	0	0.8	62	0

21	Jan_5_2012	49.43	49.66	50.54	50.85			50.8(-0.82%)	UD	OpenLong	75	-0	20	-10000	3	70	2.54	55%	0	70.7	1.51%	0	1	76	0
22	Jan_4_2012	49.43	49.52	50.43	50.73			51.22(-0.43%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.4	23	-10000	4	80	3.1	55%	0.04	74.5	1.51%	0	1.6	78	0
23	Jan_3_2012	49.41	49.34	50.27	50.58			51.44(1.76%)	UT	HoldLong	65	0.8	26	-10000	6	86	2.21	52%	0.06	76.5	1.52%	0	2	77	0
24	Dec_30_2011	49.38	49.13	50.01	50.36			50.55(0.58%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.2	22	-10000	3	79	1.43	51%	0.04	78.4	1.52%	0	1.3	65	0
25	Dec_29_2011	49.36	49.02	49.92	50.24			50.26(0.14%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0	23	-10000	2	86	1.98	51%		87	1.53%	0	1.2	68	0
i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD

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