Trading Signals: NVS Stock Price Prediction and Forecast

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Tue. May. 31, 2011

Trading Signals: NVS Stock Price Prediction and Forecast (Tue. Apr. 1, 2003 - Fri. Oct. 27, 2023)

(Novartis)
NVS latest price $57.0500 (2.28%) ($56.3300 - $57.1600) on Tue. May. 31, 2011.

Trend Analysis and Forecast

Average Daily Percentage Swing   1.17% (three month average)
RSI   72
Latest Price   $57.0500(2.28%)
Stocks Behave Similarly   Similar Stock List
Daily Trend   NVS advances 1.3% a day on average for past five trading days.
Weekly Trend   NVS advances 1.5% a week on average for past two weeks.
Market Behavior   Normal for large cap. Normal for small cap.
Correlated ETFs   Broad market will support NVS advance at 0% a week (0% probability)
SPY(57%)    EWG(55%)    EWI(51%)    EWP(51%)    XLP(51%)
Factors Impacting NVS price   NVS will decline at least -0.585% in a week (0% probabilities).
TLT(-18%)    TIP(-3%)    SHY(-0%)    GLD(5%)    IGOV(9%)
Explanation The rally is not sustainable and not supported by the broad market.

Relative Volatility (options are extremely cheap)

Market Trend Strength   -0.585% (StdDev 1.17%)
Hourly BBV 0 ()
Intraday Trend 0.7%

5 Day Moving Average   $55.28(3.2%)
10 Day Moving Average   $54.73(4.24%)
20 Day Moving Average   $54.07(5.51%)
To recent high   0%
To recent low   22.3%
Market Cap   $130.586b

Novartis AG is a holding company, which engages in the development, manufacture, and marketing of healthcare products. It operates through the following segments: Innovative Medicines, Sandoz, and Corporate. The Innovative Medicines segment researches, develops, manufactures, distributes and sells patented pharmaceuticals, and is composed of two business units: Novartis Oncology and Novartis Pharmaceuticals. The Sandoz segment develops, manufactures and markets finished dosage form medicines as well as intermediary products including active pharmaceutical ingredients. The Corporate segment refers to group management and central services. The company was founded on February 29, 1996 and is headquartered in Basel, Switzerland.

$. NVS price fluctuates within 1.92% (three month std-dev: 1.17%) daily (68% of days).

Sample size 0 Average positive next day return: 0%(0%) Average negative next day return: 0%(0%) Sample size 0 Average positive next three day return: 0%(0%) Average negative next three day return: %(0%) Sample size 0 Average positive next weekly return: 0%(0%) Average negative next weekly return: 0%(0%)

Analysis News Options Weekly Chart Daily Chart 2 Month Daily Chart

> 20110701

i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD
1	May_31_2011	50.48	54.07	54.73	55.28			57.05(2.28%)	UT	OpenLong	75	1.7	39	-10000	23	87	7.17	60%	0.14	82.3	1.17%	0	2.9	72	0
2	May_27_2011	50.41	53.84	54.41	54.55			55.78(1.36%)	UT	OpenLong	75	1.4	21	-10000	10	52	3.86	61%	0.1	85.2	1.15%	0	2.2	68	0
3	May_26_2011	50.36	53.66	54.21	54.25			55.03(0.92%)	UT	OpenLong	75	1	12	-10000	2	41	3.69	60%	0.08	92.7	1.15%	0	1.7	67	0
4	May_25_2011	50.32	53.51	54.11	54.18			54.53(1%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.4	14	-10000	1	51	3.08	60%	0.06	91.2	1.15%	0	1.2	67	0
5	May_24_2011	50.29	53.36	53.98	54.14			53.99(1.09%)	UT	OpenLong	75	-0.2	14	-10000	2	49	2.68	53%	0.02	93.6	1.15%	0	0.7	56	0

6	May_23_2011	50.28	53.23	53.98	54.09			53.41(-1.6%)	UD	OpenLong	65	-0.6	9	-10000	-4	46	2.47	53%	0.04	95	1.27%	0	0.2	58	0
7	May_20_2011	50.26	53.1	53.92	54.23			54.28(-0.73%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0	19	-10000	3	65	2.02	55%	0.04	103	1.25%	0	1.1	67	0
8	May_19_2011	50.24	52.92	53.79	54.14			54.68(0.63%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.5	19	-10000	3	67	2.85	55%	0.04	97.8	1.25%	0	1.5	72	0
9	May_18_2011	50.22	52.74	53.59	54.03			54.34(1.08%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.3	23	-10000	7	69	2.71	55%	0.04	108.3	1.26%	0	1.4	72	0
10	May_17_2011	50.2	52.52	53.48	53.8			53.76(-0.63%)	UD	OpenLong	75	-0	21	-10000	3	73	2.86	57%	0.04	98.3	1.25%	0	1	73	0

11	May_16_2011	50.18	52.24	53.38	53.71			54.1(0.48%)	UT	HoldLong	65	0.3	24	-10000	5	82	2.66	57%	0.08	76.1	1.26%	0	1.2	79	0
12	May_13_2011	50.14	52.01	53.22	53.55			53.84(-0.54%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.2	27	-10000	5	93	2.69	57%	0.04	73.9	1.24%	0	1.2	81	0
13	May_12_2011	50.12	51.79	53.06	53.38			54.13(1.82%)	UT	HoldLong	65	0.5	33	-10000	9	103	4.21	57%	0.04	70.3	1.25%	0	1.4	85	0
14	May_11_2011	50.1	51.53	52.85	53.08			53.16(-0.3%)	UD	OpenLong	65	0	23	-10000	-1	94	3.72	55%	0.02	66.1	1.24%	0	1	69	0
15	May_10_2011	50.09	51.31	52.7	53.12			53.32(0%)	UT	HoldLong	50	0.1	32	-10000	4	116	2.94	55%	0.04	66.8	1.24%	0	1.2	78	0

16	May_9_2011	50.07	51.09	52.49	52.99			53.32(0.7%)	UT	HoldLong	65	0.2	39	-10000	5	140	2.94	55%	0.02	66.3	1.25%	0	1.3	84	0
17	May_6_2011	50.06	50.87	52.23	52.82			52.95(0.55%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.1	40	-10000	4	146	3.84	55%	0.02	68.2	1.23%	0	1.3	68	0
18	May_5_2011	50.05	50.67	51.99	52.7			52.66(-1.31%)	UD	OpenLong	75	-0	41	-10000	4	153	3.76	55%	0.02	71.8	1.24%	0	1.2	68	0
19	May_4_2011	50.04	50.47	51.84	52.57			53.36(1.31%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.5	52	-10000	11	174	7.4	57%	0.08	73.2	1.24%	0	1.8	74	0
20	May_3_2011	50	50.22	51.48	52.21			52.67(0.36%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.3	49	-10000	9	167	5.1	55%	0.08	73.4	1.23%	0	1.7	72	0

21	May_2_2011	49.96	50	51.03	51.92			52.48(0.31%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.4	46	-10000	12	149	3.82	55%	0.08	70.4	1.23%	0	1.8	72	0
22	Apr_29_2011	49.92	49.77	50.72	51.53			52.32(0.54%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.6	43	-10000	11	137	5.25	57%	0.08	62.9	1.22%	0	1.9	70	0
23	Apr_28_2011	49.88	49.55	50.41	51.17			52.04(1.01%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.7	33	-10000	5	117	4.84	57%	0.08	56.9	1.23%	0	2	67	0
24	Apr_27_2011	49.84	49.34	50.09	51			51.52(0.55%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.5	38	-10000	12	115	3.69	53%	0.06	59.6	1.23%	0	2	67	0
25	Apr_26_2011	49.81	49.17	49.81	50.64			51.24(1.36%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.6	41	-10000	21	101	5.31	53%		54.6	1.28%	0	2	67	0
i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD

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