Trading Signals: NVS Stock Price Prediction and Forecast

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Thu. Jul. 30, 2009

Trading Signals: NVS Stock Price Prediction and Forecast (Tue. Apr. 1, 2003 - Fri. Oct. 27, 2023)

(Novartis)
NVS latest price $39.4400 (2.23%) ($38.8400 - $39.6000) on Thu. Jul. 30, 2009.

Trend Analysis and Forecast

Average Daily Percentage Swing   1.52% (three month average)
RSI   90
Latest Price   $39.4400(2.23%)
Stocks Behave Similarly   Similar Stock List
Daily Trend   NVS advances 0.2% a day on average for past five trading days.
Weekly Trend   NVS advances 4.4% a week on average for past two weeks.
Market Behavior   Normal for large cap. Normal for small cap.
Correlated ETFs   Broad market will support NVS advance at 0% a week (0% probability)
SPY(57%)    EWG(56%)    EWI(52%)    XLP(52%)    EWP(51%)
Factors Impacting NVS price   NVS will decline at least -0.76% in a week (0% probabilities).
TLT(-18%)    TIP(-2%)    SHY(-2%)    GLD(7%)    LQD(13%)
Explanation The rally is not sustainable and not supported by the broad market.

Relative Volatility (options are extremely cheap)

Market Trend Strength   -0.76% (StdDev 1.52%)
Hourly BBV 0 ()
Intraday Trend 0.9%

5 Day Moving Average   $39.06(0.97%)
10 Day Moving Average   $38.83(1.57%)
20 Day Moving Average   $37.27(5.82%)
To recent high   0%
To recent low   18.4%
Market Cap   $90.277b

Novartis AG is a holding company, which engages in the development, manufacture, and marketing of healthcare products. It operates through the following segments: Innovative Medicines, Sandoz, and Corporate. The Innovative Medicines segment researches, develops, manufactures, distributes and sells patented pharmaceuticals, and is composed of two business units: Novartis Oncology and Novartis Pharmaceuticals. The Sandoz segment develops, manufactures and markets finished dosage form medicines as well as intermediary products including active pharmaceutical ingredients. The Corporate segment refers to group management and central services. The company was founded on February 29, 1996 and is headquartered in Basel, Switzerland.

$. NVS price fluctuates within 4.7% (three month std-dev: 1.52%) daily (68% of days).

Sample size 0 Average positive next day return: 0%(0%) Average negative next day return: 0%(0%) Sample size 0 Average positive next three day return: 0%(0%) Average negative next three day return: %(0%) Sample size 0 Average positive next weekly return: 0%(0%) Average negative next weekly return: 0%(0%)

Analysis News Options Weekly Chart Daily Chart 2 Month Daily Chart

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i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD
1	Jul_30_2009	34.88	37.27	38.83	39.06			39.44(2.23%)	UT	HoldLong	65	0.2	45	-10000	2	173	1.43	61%	0.29	41.9	1.52%	0	1.2	90	0
2	Jul_29_2009	34.78	37.11	38.61	39			38.58(-1.33%)	UD	OpenLong	65	-0.3	47	-10000	-2	192	1.41	61%	0.23	43.1	1.5%	0	0.9	77	0
3	Jul_28_2009	34.7	36.98	38.39	39.07			39.1(0.23%)	UT	HoldLong	65	0	55	-10000	2	213	0.77	61%	0.26	42	1.51%	0	1.3	82	0
4	Jul_27_2009	34.61	36.84	38.02	39.02			39.01(-0.46%)	UD	OpenLong	75	-0	57	-10000	4	217	0.82	61%	0.23	43.4	1.52%	0	1.4	83	0
5	Jul_24_2009	34.53	36.7	37.66	38.89			39.19(0.18%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.2	62	-10000	12	212	0.71	61%	0.26	42.4	1.53%	0	1.7	73	0

6	Jul_23_2009	34.44	36.55	37.21	38.55			39.12(0.49%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.4	58	-10000	14	190	1.23	64%	0.26	37.4	1.53%	0	1.9	74	0
7	Jul_22_2009	34.35	36.41	36.84	38.15			38.93(0.23%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.6	52	-10000	18	154	1.22	64%	0.26	31	1.59%	0	2.1	62	0
8	Jul_21_2009	34.26	36.31	36.45	37.61			38.84(1.17%)	UT	OpenLong	75	1.1	49	-10000	25	119	1.11	64%	0.23	25.7	1.6%	0	2.3	64	0
9	Jul_20_2009	34.18	36.17	36.05	36.87			38.39(2.43%)	UT	OpenLong	75	1.6	32	-10000	22	63	2.04	61%	0.21	8.9	1.59%	0	2.4	60	0
10	Jul_17_2009	34.11	36.09	35.77	36.23			37.48(0.94%)	UT	OpenLong	75	1.5	19	-10000	20	17	1.43	57%	0.15	-11.6	1.61%	0	1.7	54	0

11	Jul_16_2009	34.06	36.05	35.55	35.67			37.13(2.54%)	N/A	N/A	0	1.9	3	-10000	12	-26	2.6	57%	0.12	-24.3	1.63%	0	1.4	53	0
12	Jul_15_2009	34.02	36.05	35.46	35.33			36.21(3.02%)	DP	OpenShort	-65	1.2	-8	-10000	7	-51	1.27	55%	0.06	-26.1	1.6%	0	0.2	46	0
13	Jul_14_2009	34	36.03	35.43	35.13			35.15(-0.14%)	DP	OpenShort	-65	0	-19	-10000	1	-79	1.2	52%	0	-29.4	1.56%	0	-1.2	31	0
14	Jul_13_2009	34	36.09	35.55	35.1			35.2(1.5%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	0.1	-24	-10000	-4	-84	0.86	52%	-0.03	-26.2	1.57%	0	-1.2	42	0
15	Jul_10_2009	34.01	36.18	35.68	35.22			34.68(-2.06%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.7	-26	-10000	-6	-84	0.96	52%	-0.06	-8.9	1.57%	0	-2.1	34	0

16	Jul_9_2009	34.03	36.24	35.85	35.38			35.41(0.51%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	0	-27	-10000	-8	-84	1.09	54%	-0.06	-1.6	1.55%	0	-1.3	38	0
17	Jul_8_2009	34.05	36.23	35.97	35.6			35.23(0.66%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	-0.5	-23	-10000	-6	-75	1.43	54%	-0.03	7.4	1.56%	0	-1.4	36	0
18	Jul_7_2009	34.06	36.26	36.18	35.77			35(-2.23%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-1.1	-22	-10000	-10	-57	1.2	54%	0.03	16.8	1.56%	0	-1.9	44	0
19	Jul_6_2009	34.05	36.28	36.33	36.05			35.8(0.93%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	-0.4	-14	-10000	-5	-39	0.69	57%	-0.21	26.3	1.53%	0	-0.7	49	0
20	Jul_2_2009	34.12	36.24	36.46	36.2			35.47(-2.88%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-1	-12	-10000	-6	-31	0.74	54%	-0.03	27.6	1.54%	0	-1.1	39	0

21	Jul_1_2009	34.13	36.25	36.62	36.38			36.52(1.28%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	0.2	-2	-10000	-1	-5	1.59	58%	-0.03	35.8	1.5%	0	0.4	58	0
22	Jun_30_2009	34.14	36.18	36.66	36.4			36.06(-0.93%)	N/A	N/A	0	-0.4	-4	-10000	-9	12	1.52	61%	-0.06	34.3	1.54%	0	-0.2	60	0
23	Jun_29_2009	34.16	36.14	36.69	36.4			36.4(-0.41%)	UD	OpenLong	75	-0.3	10	-10000	0	38	0.66	61%	0	41.4	1.54%	0	0.3	58	0
24	Jun_26_2009	34.16	36.11	36.67	36.65			36.55(0.44%)	UD	OpenLong	65	-0.1	8	-10000	-4	42	1.39	56%	-0.03	41.7	1.66%	0	0.6	60	0
25	Jun_25_2009	34.17	36.05	36.72	36.76			36.39(-0.57%)	UD	OpenLong	65	-0.5	15	-10000	-4	70	2.66	56%		43.7	1.66%	0	0.4	62	0
i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD

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