Trading Signals: NVS Stock Price Prediction and Forecast

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Mon. Mar. 16, 2009

Trading Signals: NVS Stock Price Prediction and Forecast (Tue. Apr. 1, 2003 - Fri. Oct. 27, 2023)

(Novartis)
NVS latest price $32.1500 (2%) ($32.0400 - $32.6500) on Mon. Mar. 16, 2009.

Trend Analysis and Forecast

Average Daily Percentage Swing   1.94% (three month average)
RSI   34
Latest Price   $32.1500(2%)
Stocks Behave Similarly   Similar Stock List
Daily Trend   NVS advances 1% a day on average for past five trading days.
Weekly Trend   NVS declines -1.9% a week on average for past two weeks.
Market Behavior   Normal for large cap. Normal for small cap.
Correlated ETFs   Broad market will support NVS advance at 0% a week (0% probability)
EWG(56%)    SPY(56%)    EWI(51%)    EWP(51%)    XLP(51%)
Factors Impacting NVS price   NVS will decline at least -0.97% in a week (0% probabilities).
TLT(-18%)    SHY(-2%)    TIP(-1%)    GLD(8%)    LQD(13%)
Explanation The rally is not sustainable and not supported by the broad market.

Relative Volatility (options are extremely cheap)

Market Trend Strength   -0.97% (StdDev 1.94%)
Hourly BBV 0 ()
Intraday Trend -0.9%

Resistance Level   $32.47
5 Day Moving Average   $31.08(3.44%)
10 Day Moving Average   $30.77(4.48%)
20 Day Moving Average   $32.47(-0.99%)
To recent high   -27.3%
To recent low   7.1%
Market Cap   $73.591b

Novartis AG is a holding company, which engages in the development, manufacture, and marketing of healthcare products. It operates through the following segments: Innovative Medicines, Sandoz, and Corporate. The Innovative Medicines segment researches, develops, manufactures, distributes and sells patented pharmaceuticals, and is composed of two business units: Novartis Oncology and Novartis Pharmaceuticals. The Sandoz segment develops, manufactures and markets finished dosage form medicines as well as intermediary products including active pharmaceutical ingredients. The Corporate segment refers to group management and central services. The company was founded on February 29, 1996 and is headquartered in Basel, Switzerland.

$. NVS price fluctuates within 7.58% (three month std-dev: 1.94%) daily (68% of days).

Sample size 0 Average positive next day return: 0%(0%) Average negative next day return: 0%(0%) Sample size 0 Average positive next three day return: 0%(0%) Average negative next three day return: %(0%) Sample size 0 Average positive next weekly return: 0%(0%) Average negative next weekly return: 0%(0%)

Analysis News Options Weekly Chart Daily Chart 2 Month Daily Chart

> 20090416

i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD
1	Mar_16_2009	39.51	32.47	30.77	31.08			32.15(2%)	DP	OpenShort	-65	0.4	-5	-10000	11	-54	2.03	38%	-0.25	-60.8	1.94%	0	-0.1	34	0
2	Mar_13_2009	39.61	32.73	30.6	30.76			31.52(1.64%)	DP	OpenShort	-65	0.3	-25	-10000	5	-116	2.32	35%	-0.33	-58.1	1.99%	0	-0.4	24	0
3	Mar_12_2009	39.74	33.04	30.63	30.6			31.01(3.19%)	DP	OpenShort	-65	0.1	-37	-10000	4	-160	2.88	35%	-0.3	-54.6	1.99%	0	-0.7	19	0
4	Mar_11_2009	39.86	33.34	30.72	30.48			30.05(-2.05%)	DT	HoldShort	-65	-0.1	-53	-10000	-2	-207	2.79	30%	-0.37	-54.5	1.97%	0	-1.1	10	0
5	Mar_10_2009	40.01	33.7	31.03	30.53			30.68(0.49%)	DT	HoldShort	-50	0.1	-56	-10000	4	-234	3.54	31%	-0.4	-55.2	1.96%	0	-1	10	0

6	Mar_9_2009	40.17	34.04	31.37	30.4			30.53(-0.62%)	DT	HoldShort	-65	0	-67	-10000	-1	-264	4.47	31%	-0.37	-55	1.96%	0	-1.2	10	0
7	Mar_6_2009	40.32	34.38	31.86	30.42			30.72(0.99%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	0.1	-77	-10000	-9	-280	4.01	31%	-0.32	-55.5	1.98%	0	-1.2	9	0
8	Mar_5_2009	40.45	34.71	32.37	30.68			30.42(0.36%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	-0.1	-79	-10000	-11	-284	4.11	31%	-0.3	-54.8	1.98%	0	-1.5	6	0
9	Mar_4_2009	40.57	35.05	32.95	31.02			30.31(0.93%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	-0.3	-84	-10000	-19	-279	2.77	31%	-0.32	-56.9	1.99%	0	-1.8	14	0
10	Mar_3_2009	40.7	35.43	33.62	31.62			30.03(-1.86%)	DT	HoldShort	-65	-0.6	-85	-10000	-27	-260	2.87	38%	-0.32	-59.9	1.98%	0	-2.2	11	0

11	Mar_2_2009	40.83	35.77	34.32	32.48			30.6(-4.52%)	DT	HoldShort	-65	-0.9	-76	-10000	-29	-218	3	38%	-0.22	-68.9	2.08%	0	-2.4	12	0
12	Feb_27_2009	40.92	36.09	35.06	33.5			32.05(-0.16%)	DT	HoldShort	-65	-0.8	-60	-10000	-23	-170	5.5	44%	-0.22	-77.7	2.09%	0	-2.3	18	0
13	Feb_26_2009	41.01	36.33	35.66	34.32			32.1(-3.66%)	DT	HoldShort	-65	-1.5	-50	-10000	-23	-129	3.63	44%	-0.29	-88.9	2.11%	0	-2.9	20	0
14	Feb_25_2009	41.13	36.64	36.21	35.17			33.32(-3%)	DT	HoldShort	-65	-1.6	-39	-10000	-20	-94	3.78	44%	-0.32	-106.8	2.07%	0	-2.9	24	0
15	Feb_24_2009	41.26	36.98	36.63	35.91			34.35(-3.78%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-1.4	-26	-10000	-14	-62	3.15	47%	-0.31	-98.6	2.1%	0	-2.4	25	0

16	Feb_23_2009	41.39	37.3	36.97	36.43			35.7(-1.16%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.6	-16	-10000	-11	-31	2.3	52%	-0.29	-82.9	2.09%	0	-1.3	50	0
17	Feb_20_2009	41.51	37.5	37.13	36.85			36.12(-0.63%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.6	-10	-10000	-10	-8	2.28	46%	-0.26	-76.8	2.09%	0	-1.1	50	0
18	Feb_19_2009	41.62	37.7	37.24	37.24			36.35(-1.89%)	UD	OpenLong	65	-0.7	1	-10000	-4	15	1.98	46%	-0.26	-70.5	2.16%	0	-1	51	0
19	Feb_18_2009	41.73	37.9	37.32	37.41			37.05(0.27%)	UD	OpenLong	65	-0.3	4	-10000	-1	17	2.33	46%	-0.24	-68.3	2.16%	0	-0.6	43	0
20	Feb_17_2009	41.83	38.09	37.37	37.46			36.95(-2.2%)	N/A	N/A	0	-0.3	-2	-10000	-3	2	3.77	46%	-0.4	-66.3	2.18%	0	-0.7	32	0

21	Feb_13_2009	42	38.32	37.31	37.57			37.78(-0.71%)	DP	OpenShort	-65	0.1	-3	-10000	3	-21	5.77	52%	-0.28	-60.6	2.22%	0	-0.3	31	0
22	Feb_12_2009	42.12	38.5	37.18	37.45			38.05(2.26%)	DP	OpenShort	-65	0.3	-7	-10000	5	-44	1.77	52%	-0.24	-64.4	2.36%	0	-0.2	39	0
23	Feb_11_2009	42.22	38.66	37.02	37.25			37.21(-0.27%)	DP	OpenShort	-65	-0	-18	-10000	1	-76	1.87	52%	-0.26	-67.5	2.37%	0	-0.7	33	0
24	Feb_10_2009	42.33	38.9	37.09	37.21			37.31(-0.48%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	0	-24	-10000	-1	-94	1.9	52%	-0.24	-66.6	2.37%	0	-0.8	32	0
25	Feb_9_2009	42.43	39.15	37.32	37.27			37.49(0.75%)	DP	OpenShort	-65	0.1	-20	-10000	6	-97	1.27	52%		-65.1	2.37%	0	-0.8	30	0
i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD

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