Trading Signals: NVS Stock Price Prediction and Forecast

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Fri. Oct. 17, 2008

Trading Signals: NVS Stock Price Prediction and Forecast (Tue. Apr. 1, 2003 - Fri. Oct. 27, 2023)

(Novartis)
NVS latest price $45.0400 (4.5%) ($44.1900 - $46.6400) on Fri. Oct. 17, 2008.

Trend Analysis and Forecast

Average Daily Percentage Swing   2.49% (three month average)
RSI   46
Latest Price   $45.0400(4.5%)
Stocks Behave Similarly   Similar Stock List
Daily Trend   NVS advances 3% a day on average for past five trading days.
Weekly Trend   NVS declines -4% a week on average for past two weeks.
Market Behavior   Normal for large cap. Normal for small cap.
Correlated ETFs   Broad market will support NVS advance at 0% a week (0% probability)
EWG(58%)    SPY(58%)    EWI(53%)    EWP(53%)    XLP(53%)
Factors Impacting NVS price   NVS will decline at least -1.245% in a week (0% probabilities).
TLT(-18%)    SHY(-5%)    TIP(-1%)    GLD(9%)    LQD(15%)
Explanation The rally is not sustainable and not supported by the broad market.

Relative Volatility (options are extremely cheap)

Market Trend Strength   -1.245% (StdDev 2.49%)
Hourly BBV 0 ()
Intraday Trend 1.6%

1 - 5 Day Possible Target   $31.89(-29.2%)
Resistance Level   $45.15
5 Day Moving Average   $43.09(4.53%)
10 Day Moving Average   $43.11(4.48%)
20 Day Moving Average   $45.15(-0.24%)
To recent high   -16.6%
To recent low   16.2%
Market Cap   $103.096b

Novartis AG is a holding company, which engages in the development, manufacture, and marketing of healthcare products. It operates through the following segments: Innovative Medicines, Sandoz, and Corporate. The Innovative Medicines segment researches, develops, manufactures, distributes and sells patented pharmaceuticals, and is composed of two business units: Novartis Oncology and Novartis Pharmaceuticals. The Sandoz segment develops, manufactures and markets finished dosage form medicines as well as intermediary products including active pharmaceutical ingredients. The Corporate segment refers to group management and central services. The company was founded on February 29, 1996 and is headquartered in Basel, Switzerland.

$. NVS price fluctuates within 6.05% (three month std-dev: 2.49%) daily (68% of days).

Sample size 0 Average positive next day return: 0%(0%) Average negative next day return: 0%(0%) Sample size 0 Average positive next three day return: 0%(0%) Average negative next three day return: %(0%) Sample size 0 Average positive next weekly return: 0%(0%) Average negative next weekly return: 0%(0%)

Analysis News Options Weekly Chart Daily Chart 2 Month Daily Chart

> 20081117

i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD
1	Oct_17_2008	48.06	45.15	43.11	43.09			45.04(4.5%)	DP	OpenShort	-65	0.7	-4	-10000	24	-86	6.7	48%	-0.02	-37.5	2.49%	0	-0	46	0
2	Oct_16_2008	48.07	45.24	43.28	41.84			43.1(4.61%)	DP	OpenShort	-65	0.5	-26	-10000	11	-137	3.93	45%	-0.06	-51.8	2.43%	0	-0.8	38	0
3	Oct_15_2008	48.1	45.44	43.56	41.31			41.2(-4.72%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0	-54	-10000	-12	-180	3.12	41%	-0.12	-58.7	2.36%	0	-1.6	32	0
4	Oct_14_2008	48.16	45.73	44.15	41.88			43.24(0.86%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	0.5	-52	-10000	-11	-175	1.96	44%	-0.1	-58.2	2.29%	0	-1	38	0
5	Oct_13_2008	48.21	45.95	44.48	42.43			42.87(10.58%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	0.2	-54	-10000	-16	-168	2.63	44%	-0.08	-52.6	2.29%	0	-1.2	39	0

6	Oct_10_2008	48.25	46.2	44.9	43.22			38.77(-4.25%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-1.8	-77	-10000	-41	-185	6.23	32%	-0.17	-44.7	1.87%	0	-3.1	28	0
7	Oct_9_2008	48.33	46.71	45.91	44.94			40.49(-8.04%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-2.6	-48	-10000	-27	-112	5.36	35%	-0.14	-34.1	1.81%	0	-3.6	30	0
8	Oct_8_2008	48.4	47.08	46.79	46.06			44.03(-4.26%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-2	-28	-10000	-17	-62	3.08	44%	-0.04	-27.4	1.53%	0	-3	39	0
9	Oct_7_2008	48.42	47.27	47.23	46.68			45.99(-1.79%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.9	-8	-10000	-4	-18	5.12	48%	0	-22.9	1.5%	0	-1.7	49	0
10	Oct_6_2008	48.42	47.27	47.41	46.83			46.83(-1.12%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	0	-3	-10000	-1	-10	4.84	50%	0.02	-30.4	1.49%	0	-0.7	47	0

11	Oct_3_2008	48.41	47.31	47.39	46.87			47.36(2.73%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	0.7	-10	-10000	-7	-19	2.44	50%	0.04	-45.2	1.49%	0	0.1	49	0
12	Oct_2_2008	48.39	47.3	47.36	47.1			46.1(-2.19%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-1.4	-18	-10000	-16	-22	3.66	50%	0.04	-51.4	1.45%	0	-1.7	37	0
13	Oct_1_2008	48.37	47.36	47.46	47.66			47.13(0.88%)	N/A	N/A	0	-0.8	-3	-10000	-6	6	1.49	53%	0.06	-39.9	1.47%	0	-0.3	50	0
14	Sep_30_2008	48.34	47.43	47.43	47.87			46.72(-0.66%)	N/A	N/A	0	-1.6	-1	-10000	-5	11	1.62	56%	0.02	-29.2	1.47%	0	-1	48	0
15	Sep_29_2008	48.33	47.52	47.52	48.05			47.03(-3.09%)	UD	OpenLong	75	-1.4	10	-10000	3	30	2.19	56%	0.04	-23.4	1.52%	0	-0.7	55	0

16	Sep_26_2008	48.31	47.63	47.58	47.95			48.53(-0.72%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.7	16	-10000	9	35	0.79	60%	0.08	-22.9	1.46%	0	1.1	62	0
17	Sep_25_2008	48.27	47.66	47.54	47.64			48.88(1.43%)	UT	OpenLong	75	1.4	16	-10000	11	31	1.22	60%	0.08	-29.4	1.46%	0	1.4	60	0
18	Sep_24_2008	48.23	47.66	47.37	47.26			48.19(1.18%)	UT	OpenLong	75	1.1	10	-10000	9	13	2.13	63%	0.06	-41.6	1.45%	0	0.6	57	0
19	Sep_23_2008	48.2	47.65	47.27	46.95			47.63(2.39%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	0.8	-4	-10000	0	-15	1.59	63%	0.06	-57.8	1.5%	0	-0	42	0
20	Sep_22_2008	48.17	47.69	47.17	46.94			46.52(-0.96%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.5	-13	-10000	-6	-34	1.63	61%	0.02	-60.6	1.48%	0	-1.3	35	0

21	Sep_19_2008	48.16	47.81	47.21	47.14			46.97(-0.02%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.2	-17	-10000	-8	-43	2.47	62%	0.06	-62.2	1.49%	0	-0.9	33	0
22	Sep_18_2008	48.13	47.93	47.24	47.42			46.98(0.73%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	-0.5	-13	-10000	-2	-47	2.92	62%	0.04	-56.7	1.49%	0	-1	31	0
23	Sep_17_2008	48.11	48.01	47.26	47.49			46.64(-1.98%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.9	-18	-10000	-4	-58	2.05	60%	0.04	-63.7	1.49%	0	-1.5	36	0
24	Sep_16_2008	48.09	48.17	47.45	47.62			47.58(0.11%)	DP	OpenShort	-65	-0	-8	-10000	5	-47	2.33	63%	0.08	-61.8	1.49%	0	-0.6	45	0
25	Sep_15_2008	48.05	48.26	47.54	47.43			47.53(-1.7%)	DP	OpenShort	-65	0.1	-12	-10000	4	-58	2.03	63%		-73.1	1.49%	0	-0.8	42	0
i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD

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