Trading Signals: NVS Stock Price Prediction and Forecast

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Fri. Nov. 3, 2006

Trading Signals: NVS Stock Price Prediction and Forecast (Tue. Apr. 1, 2003 - Fri. Oct. 27, 2023)

(Novartis)
NVS latest price $53.7700 (-0.17%) ($53.7500 - $53.9900) on Fri. Nov. 3, 2006.

Trend Analysis and Forecast

Average Daily Percentage Swing   0.78% (three month average)
RSI   82
Latest Price   $53.7700(-0.17%)
Stocks Behave Similarly   Similar Stock List
Daily Trend   NVS advances 0.1% a day on average for past five trading days.
Weekly Trend   NVS advances 1.5% a week on average for past two weeks.
Market Behavior   Normal for large cap. Normal for small cap.
Correlated ETFs   Broad market will support NVS advance at 0% a week (0% probability)
EWG(56%)    SPY(56%)    EWI(52%)    EWP(51%)    XLP(51%)
Factors Impacting NVS price   NVS will decline at least -0.39% in a week (0% probabilities).
TLT(-17%)    SHY(-7%)    TIP(-2%)    GLD(9%)    LQD(13%)
Explanation The rally is not sustainable and not supported by the broad market.

Relative Volatility (options are extremely cheap)

Market Trend Strength   -0.39% (StdDev 0.78%)
Hourly BBV 0 ()
Intraday Trend -0.1%

5 Day Moving Average   $53.66(0.2%)
10 Day Moving Average   $53.62(0.28%)
20 Day Moving Average   $52.6(2.22%)
To recent high   -0.2%
To recent low   10%
Market Cap   $123.078b

Novartis AG is a holding company, which engages in the development, manufacture, and marketing of healthcare products. It operates through the following segments: Innovative Medicines, Sandoz, and Corporate. The Innovative Medicines segment researches, develops, manufactures, distributes and sells patented pharmaceuticals, and is composed of two business units: Novartis Oncology and Novartis Pharmaceuticals. The Sandoz segment develops, manufactures and markets finished dosage form medicines as well as intermediary products including active pharmaceutical ingredients. The Corporate segment refers to group management and central services. The company was founded on February 29, 1996 and is headquartered in Basel, Switzerland.

$. NVS price fluctuates within 2.45% (three month std-dev: 0.78%) daily (68% of days).

Sample size 0 Average positive next day return: 0%(0%) Average negative next day return: 0%(0%) Sample size 0 Average positive next three day return: 0%(0%) Average negative next three day return: %(0%) Sample size 0 Average positive next weekly return: 0%(0%) Average negative next weekly return: 0%(0%)

Analysis News Options Weekly Chart Daily Chart 2 Month Daily Chart

> 20061203

i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD
1	Nov_3_2006	50.09	52.6	53.62	53.66			53.77(-0.17%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.1	31	-10000	2	119	1.11	68%	0.16	41.6	0.78%	0	0.9	82	0
2	Nov_2_2006	50.01	52.47	53.6	53.62			53.86(0.58%)	UT	HoldLong	65	0.2	40	-10000	1	158	1.11	68%	0.16	40.1	0.79%	0	1.1	85	0
3	Nov_1_2006	49.93	52.36	53.53	53.6			53.55(-0.28%)	UD	OpenLong	65	-0	45	-10000	-2	187	1.07	68%	0.14	39.1	0.79%	0	1	74	0
4	Oct_31_2006	49.86	52.26	53.31	53.63			53.7(0.56%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.1	53	-10000	4	198	1.41	68%	0.14	41.3	0.79%	0	1.2	75	0
5	Oct_30_2006	49.79	52.16	53.04	53.55			53.4(-0.35%)	UD	OpenLong	65	-0.1	48	-10000	-1	193	1.15	68%	0.12	42.3	0.79%	0	1.1	74	0

6	Oct_27_2006	49.73	52.07	52.81	53.55			53.59(-0.28%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0	48	-10000	0	191	2.23	68%	0.12	46	0.8%	0	1.4	72	0
7	Oct_26_2006	49.67	51.97	52.51	53.57			53.74(0.07%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.2	52	-10000	6	190	1.54	68%	0.1	49.5	0.8%	0	1.7	75	0
8	Oct_25_2006	49.62	51.88	52.24	53.45			53.7(0.69%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.3	64	-10000	24	183	1.77	68%	0.1	54	0.81%	0	1.9	68	0
9	Oct_24_2006	49.57	51.77	51.97	52.94			53.33(-0.3%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.4	51	-10000	23	136	1.3	71%	0.08	46.5	0.81%	0	1.8	63	0
10	Oct_23_2006	49.53	51.68	51.73	52.44			53.49(-0.21%)	UD	OpenLong	75	1.3	40	-10000	24	86	1.48	71%	0.08	39.6	0.83%	0	2.2	64	0

11	Oct_20_2006	49.49	51.56	51.49	51.92			53.6(0.88%)	UT	OpenLong	75	2.4	32	-10000	29	41	2.2	73%	0.08	29.7	0.85%	0	2.9	65	0
12	Oct_19_2006	49.45	51.45	51.23	51.29			53.13(3.83%)	N/A	N/A	0	3.4	10	-10000	19	-17	3.71	72%	0.1	17.1	0.84%	0	3.1	63	0
13	Oct_18_2006	49.4	51.35	51.04	50.88			51.17(0.71%)	DP	OpenShort	-65	0.7	-18	-10000	1	-76	1.15	65%	0.04	3.9	0.71%	0	-0.5	32	0
14	Oct_17_2006	49.38	51.36	51.09	50.86			50.81(-0.12%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.1	-22	-10000	-3	-80	0.99	63%	0.02	10.7	0.72%	0	-1.3	34	0
15	Oct_16_2006	49.37	51.36	51.19	50.91			50.87(0.77%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	-0.1	-22	-10000	-4	-75	0.71	63%	0.02	14.3	0.72%	0	-1.1	38	0

16	Oct_13_2006	49.36	51.35	51.28	50.99			50.48(-1.12%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-1.1	-21	-10000	-7	-64	1.08	56%	0.02	24.4	0.73%	0	-1.9	38	0
17	Oct_12_2006	49.35	51.36	51.4	51.13			51.05(-0.08%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.2	-16	-10000	-5	-50	1.2	60%	0.04	41.1	0.73%	0	-0.7	40	0
18	Oct_11_2006	49.33	51.34	51.51	51.23			51.09(0.08%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	-0.3	-13	-10000	-7	-32	0.62	65%	0.02	55.8	0.73%	0	-0.5	49	0
19	Oct_10_2006	49.32	51.31	51.58	51.36			51.05(-0.47%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.6	-9	-10000	-8	-13	0.53	65%	0.02	66.3	0.77%	0	-0.5	48	0
20	Oct_9_2006	49.31	51.29	51.65	51.51			51.29(0.21%)	N/A	N/A	0	-0.4	0	-10000	-5	15	0.53	65%	0.04	68.5	0.77%	0	0	64	0

21	Oct_6_2006	49.29	51.24	51.66	51.61			51.18(-0.72%)	UD	OpenLong	65	-0.7	5	-10000	-5	33	0.6	65%	0.02	60.5	0.77%	0	-0.1	59	0
22	Oct_5_2006	49.28	51.17	51.71	51.71			51.55(-0.39%)	UD	OpenLong	65	-0.2	11	-10000	-5	59	0.61	65%	0.02	51.7	0.77%	0	0.5	68	0
23	Oct_4_2006	49.27	51.07	51.69	51.82			51.75(-0.1%)	UD	OpenLong	65	-0.1	20	-10000	-1	81	1.11	65%	0.02	43.9	0.78%	0	0.9	71	0
24	Oct_3_2006	49.26	50.97	51.65	51.83			51.8(0.02%)	UT	OpenLong	75	-0	25	-10000	2	94	0.52	65%	0.04	39.9	0.79%	0	1.1	71	0
25	Oct_2_2006	49.24	50.9	51.53	51.8			51.79(0.23%)	UT	OpenLong	75	-0	27	-10000	4	96	0.98	65%		40.4	0.79%	0	1.2	72	0
i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD

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