Trading Signals: NVS Stock Price Prediction and Forecast

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Thu. Dec. 30, 2004

Trading Signals: NVS Stock Price Prediction and Forecast (Tue. Apr. 1, 2003 - Fri. Oct. 27, 2023)

(Novartis)
NVS latest price $44.7600 (0.54%) ($44.5200 - $44.8900) on Thu. Dec. 30, 2004.

Trend Analysis and Forecast

Average Daily Percentage Swing   1% (three month average)
RSI   60
Latest Price   $44.7600(0.54%)
Stocks Behave Similarly   Similar Stock List
Daily Trend   NVS advances 0.5% a day on average for past five trading days.
Weekly Trend   NVS advances 0.9% a week on average for past two weeks.
Market Behavior   Normal for large cap. Normal for small cap.
Correlated ETFs   Broad market will support NVS advance at 0% a week (0% probability)
EWG(55%)    SPY(55%)    EWI(52%)    EWP(51%)    XLP(50%)
Factors Impacting NVS price   NVS will decline at least -0.5% in a week (0% probabilities).
TLT(-16%)    SHY(-6%)    TIP(-2%)    REMX(-0%)    GLD(10%)
Explanation The rally is not sustainable and not supported by the broad market.

Relative Volatility (options are extremely cheap)

Market Trend Strength   -0.5% (StdDev 1%)
Hourly BBV 0 ()
Intraday Trend 0.5%

5 Day Moving Average   $44.43(0.74%)
10 Day Moving Average   $44.01(1.7%)
20 Day Moving Average   $43.79(2.22%)
To recent high   0%
To recent low   11.3%
Market Cap   $102.455b

Novartis AG is a holding company, which engages in the development, manufacture, and marketing of healthcare products. It operates through the following segments: Innovative Medicines, Sandoz, and Corporate. The Innovative Medicines segment researches, develops, manufactures, distributes and sells patented pharmaceuticals, and is composed of two business units: Novartis Oncology and Novartis Pharmaceuticals. The Sandoz segment develops, manufactures and markets finished dosage form medicines as well as intermediary products including active pharmaceutical ingredients. The Corporate segment refers to group management and central services. The company was founded on February 29, 1996 and is headquartered in Basel, Switzerland.

$. NVS price fluctuates within 1.16% (three month std-dev: 1%) daily (68% of days).

Sample size 0 Average positive next day return: 0%(0%) Average negative next day return: 0%(0%) Sample size 0 Average positive next three day return: 0%(0%) Average negative next three day return: %(0%) Sample size 0 Average positive next weekly return: 0%(0%) Average negative next weekly return: 0%(0%)

Analysis News Options Weekly Chart Daily Chart 2 Month Daily Chart

> 20050130

i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD
1	Dec_30_2004	42.23	43.79	44.01	44.43			44.76(0.54%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.6	22	-10000	10	56	0.45	52%	0.12	71.6	1%	0	1.9	60	0
2	Dec_29_2004	42.18	43.71	43.96	44.2			44.52(-0.36%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.7	20	-10000	10	50	0.38	52%	0.12	66.4	1%	0	1.7	60	0
3	Dec_28_2004	42.13	43.6	43.89	43.99			44.68(0.86%)	UT	OpenLong	75	1.4	18	-10000	10	43	0.77	54%	0.12	47.8	1%	0	2.2	63	0
4	Dec_27_2004	42.08	43.53	43.79	43.77			44.3(0.98%)	UT	OpenLong	75	1.2	15	-10000	10	30	0.57	54%	0.14	41.6	1%	0	1.7	58	0
5	Dec_23_2004	42.02	43.48	43.66	43.55			43.87(0.6%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.8	1	-10000	0	2	0.4	54%	0.1	27.2	1%	0	1	51	0

6	Dec_22_2004	41.98	43.43	43.64	43.54			43.61(0.32%)	N/A	N/A	0	0.2	-4	-10000	-7	7	1.12	52%	0.1	9.6	1%	0	0.4	58	0
7	Dec_21_2004	41.94	43.39	43.63	43.69			43.47(-0.25%)	UD	OpenLong	65	-0.5	2	-10000	-5	24	0.74	55%	0.07	5	1.02%	0	0.2	54	0
8	Dec_20_2004	41.91	43.37	43.61	43.79			43.58(0.88%)	UD	OpenLong	65	-0.5	10	-10000	-1	42	0.74	55%	0.12	1	1.05%	0	0.5	61	0
9	Dec_17_2004	41.86	43.35	43.6	43.81			43.2(-1.46%)	UD	OpenLong	75	-1.4	13	-10000	1	47	2.16	55%	0.07	-11.9	1.05%	0	-0.3	50	0
10	Dec_16_2004	41.83	43.37	43.65	43.78			43.84(-1.22%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.1	14	-10000	2	50	1.92	58%	0.12	-18.3	1.03%	0	1	54	0

11	Dec_15_2004	41.78	43.39	43.57	43.74			44.38(1.02%)	UT	OpenLong	75	1.3	19	-10000	8	53	1.61	60%	0.12	-15	1.02%	0	2	63	0
12	Dec_14_2004	41.73	43.37	43.43	43.56			43.93(0.57%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.8	16	-10000	6	44	2.25	58%	0.1	-23.6	1.02%	0	1.2	61	0
13	Dec_13_2004	41.69	43.36	43.29	43.43			43.68(1.44%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.5	8	-10000	2	27	0.55	58%	0.1	-32.4	1.02%	0	0.7	56	0
14	Dec_10_2004	41.65	43.4	43.25	43.38			43.06(-1.31%)	UD	OpenLong	65	-0.6	1	-10000	-6	22	0.77	56%	0.07	-30.6	1.01%	0	-0.6	49	0
15	Dec_9_2004	41.62	43.45	43.28	43.5			43.63(0.34%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.2	13	-10000	6	34	0.48	59%	0.07	-24.4	0.99%	0	0.3	48	0

16	Dec_8_2004	41.59	43.45	43.2	43.36			43.48(0.46%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.2	3	-10000	3	2	0.67	59%	0.07	-28.7	1%	0	0	40	0
17	Dec_7_2004	41.56	43.47	43.13	43.29			43.28(-0.35%)	N/A	N/A	0	-0	1	-10000	7	-19	0.81	59%	0.12	-20.9	1%	0	-0.3	42	0
18	Dec_6_2004	41.51	43.52	43.1	43.13			43.43(-0.6%)	DP	OpenShort	-65	0.5	-11	-10000	1	-46	1.54	59%	0.12	-15	1%	0	-0.2	44	0
19	Dec_3_2004	41.46	43.56	43.07	43.11			43.69(1.77%)	DP	OpenShort	-65	1	-14	-10000	3	-65	0.52	59%	0.12	-0.7	1%	0	0.2	40	0
20	Dec_2_2004	41.41	43.59	43.06	43.04			42.93(-0.44%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.2	-20	-10000	0	-80	0.66	56%	0.1	9.7	0.98%	0	-1	39	0

21	Dec_1_2004	41.37	43.63	43.2	43.03			43.12(1.51%)	DP	OpenShort	-65	0.1	-16	-10000	4	-76	0.71	56%	0.1	21.4	0.98%	0	-0.8	43	0
22	Nov_30_2004	41.33	43.59	43.28	42.94			42.48(-1.94%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.7	-24	-10000	-5	-81	1.39	57%	0.07	18.6	1%	0	-1.6	41	0
23	Nov_29_2004	41.3	43.6	43.44	43.05			43.32(-0.12%)	DP	OpenShort	-65	0.4	-18	-10000	1	-76	0.61	62%	0.1	29.5	0.97%	0	-0.4	41	0
24	Nov_26_2004	41.26	43.57	43.56	43.03			43.37(1.24%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	0.5	-22	-10000	-3	-79	0.16	62%	0.15	33.3	0.97%	0	-0.3	39	0
25	Nov_24_2004	41.2	43.52	43.63	43.1			42.84(0.33%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	-0.3	-32	-10000	-15	-83	0.53	60%		35.5	0.95%	0	-0.8	37	0
i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD

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