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     Thu. Sep. 17, 2020



Trading Signals: NVAX Stock Price Prediction and Forecast (Tue. Apr. 1, 2003 - Fri. Oct. 23, 2020)

(Novavax, Inc.)

NVAX latest price $115.5000 (-3.86%) ($112.1100 - $125.9900) on Thu. Sep. 17, 2020.

Trend and Trading Plan

Trend Narrative  Rebound
Intraday Reversal Probability  N/A.
Daily Trend  NVAX advances 4.3% a day on average for past five trading days.
Weekly Trend  NVAX advances 2.4% a week on average for past two weeks.
Market Behavior  Broad based sell-off for large cap. Broad based sell-off for small cap.
Correlated ETFs  Broad market will support NVAX advance at 2.7% a week (37% probability)
  XBI(47%)    ARKG(36%)    IBB(35%)    CNCR(32%)    GDX(29%)  
Factors Impacting NVAX price  NVAX will advance at least 2.8% in a week (17% probabilities).
  FXI(-20%)    IGOV(-19%)    TBT(-16%)    MCHI(-15%)    JETS(-13%)  
Explanation   The rally is sustainable and supported by the broad market.
Trading Plan  Buy the rebound
 
Valuation to SPY   0.2
 
Relative Volatility   -1.2 (options are cheap)
 
Hourly BBV   1
Hourly Trend   5.16% [$117.99(3.76), $112.2(5.52)]
Last Hour Trend   -0.06% [$114.08, $114.15]


NVAX Next 1 - 5 Day Price Forecast

Bullish Probability  30%
Bullish Price Move  7.7%
Bearish Probability  70%
Bearish Price Move  -7.7%
Recommended Position Size  -5%
Latest Price  $115.5000
Next Day Open Price  $115.36(-0.12%)
1 - 3 Day Target Price  $112.34(-2.74%)
1 - 5 Day Price Range  $115.5 - $110.97
5 Day Moving Average  $109.42(5.56%)
10 Day Moving Average  $101.72(13.55%)
20 Day Moving Average  $108.19(6.76%)
To recent high  -35.3%
To recent low  108.5%
Market Cap  $7.07b
 
Option Sentiment  
 
 
Earning Release Date  Wed. Nov. 4, 2020
Analyst One Year Target Price  $227.60 ($105.00 - $290.00)
  5 analysts (last updated on Wed. Aug. 5, 2020)
% to Average Target Price  97.06%
% to Low Target Price  -9.09%
% to High Target Price  151.08%
 


  
 
 


Novavax, Inc. is operates as a clinical-stage biotechnology company, which focuses on the discovery, development and commercialization of vaccines to prevent infectious diseases. It produces vaccine candidates to respond to both known and emerging disease threats by using the proprietary recombinant nanoparticle vaccine technology. The firm's vaccine candidates include ResVax and NanoFlu. It also develops immune stimulating saponin-based adjuvants through its wholly owned Swedish subsidiary, Novavax AB. The company was founded in 1987 and is headquartered in Gaithersburg, MD.

JUL 7, 2020 Shares of NVAX surged more than 40% on the news ts has received $1.6 to develop and to deliver up to 100 million doses of the company’s late-stage Covid-19 vaccine candidate as part of the U.S. government’s Operation Warp Speed program.
The vaccine, which focuses on boosting the body’s immune system to effectively combat a Covid-19 infection, is currently in phase 1 and phase 2 clinical trials in Australia, with preliminary results expected at the end of this month.


$. Technical analysis works only if the market conditions in the future are not drastically different from the past. Always read market news to understand the causes of the price movement before making a trading decision. News

$. NVAX price fluctuates within 13.07% (three month std-dev: 7.67%    one year average std_dev: 0%) daily (68% of days).
$. NVAX price fluctuates within 0% weekly (one year average std_dev: %).

Analysis   News   Options   Weekly Chart   Daily Chart   2 Month Daily Chart   

  >  20201017

iDateTo High-Lowema20
Trend
ema10
Trend
ema5
Trend
Hourly
Trend
Last
Hour
EMA
Ratio
BBVHourly
BBV
RVVSIVVIXCDVolume
millions
CloseActualPriceRangeTrend-Narrative  NextDay
PriceTarget  
NextDayPriceRangeRSI
1Sep_17_2020-35.3%-108.5% -7.1%,-0.5(0)2.4%,0.2(0.3)4.3%,0.31.2-0.06%-6%0.510.21.75.62%2.15.52   115.5(-3.86%)112.11-125.99Rebound 112.34(-2.74%)115.5-110.9755
2Sep_16_2020-32.7%-130.9% -7.3%,-0.5(0.1)-1.2%,-0.1(0.3)5.9%,0.41.5-0.5%-8.5%0.61.80.425.63%1.410.79   120.14(8.92%)108-126.54Rebound 114.57(-4.64%)118.34-112.9452
3Sep_15_2020-38.2%-116% -8.7%,-0.5(0.1)-5.1%,-0.3(0.2)5.3%,0.30.9-0.01%-11%-01.9-0.12.15.03%0.86.77   110.3(4.22%)106.16-112.25Rebound 110.21(-0.08%)105.79-112.147
4Sep_14_2020-40.7%-107.2% -10.4%,-0.6(0.1)-8.4%,-0.5(0.2)2.8%,0.20.61.18%-12.8%-0.32.7-0.42.45.31%0.87.94   105.83(11.01%)94.25-106.4Rebound 107.27(1.36%)97.18-111.639
5Sep_11_2020-46.6%-114.3% -11.6%,-0.6(0)-12%,-0.6(0.1)-1.7%,-0.10.30.13%-14.2%-0.91.1-0.92.55.97%0.15.29   95.33(2.55%)92.1-97.98Downtrend Consolidation 91.07(-4.47%)101.61-87.5622
 
6Sep_10_2020-47.9%-109% -12.2%,-0.7(0.1)-13.9%,-0.8(0.1)-2.1%,-0.10-1.05%-14.7%-1.1-0.2-1.12.46.82%-0.74.65   92.96(2.48%)90.25-99.41Downtrend 85.76(-7.74%)81.04-96.7918
7Sep_9_2020-49.2%-103.9% -13.3%,-0.8(-0)-15.2%,-0.9(0.1)-2.9%,-0.2-0.90.17%-14.1%-1.3-0.6-1.32.36.03%-0.73.76   90.71(6.3%)86.21-91.89Downtrend 83.05(-8.45%)78.06-94.6614
8Sep_8_2020-52.2%-91.9% -12.8%,-0.8(-0.1)-16.1%,-1(0)-4.9%,-0.3-0.9-1.8%-14.3%-1.7-1.9-1.52.27.94%-1.25.39   85.34(-8.16%)83.22-92.4Bottom 88.51(3.72%)79.2-94.738
9Sep_4_2020-47.9%-108.9% -11%,-0.6(-0.1)-16.3%,-0.9(-0)-2.8%,-0.1-0.31.21%-14.7%-1.4-1.7-1.52.56.26%-1.17.65   92.92(-9.77%)86.66-104.47Downtrend 84.63(-8.92%)79.04-97.698
10Sep_3_2020-42.3%-132.7% -9.6%,-0.5(-0)-15.5%,-0.9(-0.1)-0.8%,-0-0.3-0.62%-13.8%-1.1-1-1.32.55.77%-2.47.5   102.98(0.1%)102.6-113.98Downtrend 94.47(-8.26%)89.03-107.1720
 
11Sep_2_2020-42.4%-132.5% -8.7%,-0.5(-0.1)-14.5%,-0.8(-0.1)-2.2%,-0.1-0.31.3%-13%-1.2-1-1.52.45.04%0.26.04   102.88(-2.01%)94.18-105.34Growing Downtrend 95.92(-6.77%)89.88-107.0634
12Sep_1_2020-41.2%-137.3% -7.4%,-0.4(-0)-12.2%,-0.7(-0)-1.5%,-0.100.18%-12.1%-1.3-1.2-1.52.26.14%04.81   104.99(-4.84%)102.3-110.29Downtrend 99.46(-5.27%)95.17-109.4542
13Aug_31_2020-38.2%-149.3% -6.8%,-0.4(-0.1)-11.7%,-0.7(0)-1.6%,-0.1-0.30.65%-10.9%-1.3-0.4-1.52.15.98%0.16.21   110.33(2.43%)106.76-118.14Downtrend 104.87(-4.95%)100.64-114.7435
14Aug_28_2020-39.7%-143.4% -6%,-0.4(-0.1)-12.2%,-0.8(-0.1)-5%,-0.3-0.3-0.25%-9.3%-1.6-0.8-1.91.96.71%0.83.18   107.71(0.36%)102-110.17Relative Oversold 109.15(1.34%)93.23-122.1927
15Aug_27_2020-39.9%-142.5% -4.7%,-0.3(-0.1)-11.4%,-0.8(-0)-5.7%,-0.4-0.30.42%-7.8%-1.8-1.1-2.11.86.92%0.74.79   107.32(-6.36%)106.3-116.37Downtrend 103.2(-3.84%)99.23-112.4731
 
16Aug_26_2020-35.8%-159% -3.2%,-0.3(-0.1)-10.8%,-0.9(0)-4.9%,-0.4-1.5-0.45%-7.2%-1.7-1-21.66.55%1.36.96   114.61(1.13%)106.5-122.73Relative Oversold 117.4(2.43%)104.08-128.2934
17Aug_25_2020-36.5%-156.1% -2.1%,-0.2(-0.1)-11.4%,-1(-0.2)-4.8%,-0.4-2.41.63%-7.3%-2.1-1.5-2.21.47.36%1.612.96   113.33(-5.04%)97.3-117.74Growing Downtrend 110.94(-2.11%)107.66-118.3732
18Aug_24_2020-33.1%-169.7% -0.6%,-0.1(-0.1)-9.6%,-1(-0.4)-5%,-0.5-1.5-0.11%-6%-2-2.1-2.21.36.59%1.78.45   119.34(-13.23%)116.95-132.8Downtrend 117.38(-1.64%)114.67-123.7241
19Aug_21_2020-22.9%-210.8% 0.8%,0.1(-0)-5.9%,-0.7(-0.2)-1.2%,-0.1-0.60.54%-2.9%-0.9-1.7-1.21.25.19%1.75.61   137.54(-3.85%)133.3-145.8Correction 128.16(-6.82%)126.44-135.0747
20Aug_20_2020-19.9%-223.3% 0.9%,0.1(-0)-3.8%,-0.4(-0.1)1.4%,0.2-0.6-0.45%-0.8%-0.5-0.3-0.71.24.71%1.53.69   143.05(-2.72%)142.13-148.79Correction 135.65(-5.17%)134.12-141.7754
 
21Aug_19_2020-17.6%-232.3% 1.1%,0.1(-0)-3.4%,-0.4(0)3.2%,0.4-0.30.52%0.8%-0.20.6-0.41.24.65%1.65.3   147.04(0.56%)140-149Downtrend 146.78(-0.18%)146.39-147.6954
22Aug_18_2020-18.1%-230.5% 1.4%,0.2(-0.1)-3.4%,-0.4(-0.1)-0.5%,-0.11.20.17%2.4%-0.30.2-0.51.25.6%1.67.4   146.23(-5.95%)138.42-154.49Correction 138.63(-5.2%)137.05-144.9254
23Aug_17_2020-12.9%-251.4% 2.5%,0.3(-0.2)-2.7%,-0.3(-0.3)-3.1%,-0.32.10.58%3.3%0.40.40.21.15.08%1.85.66   155.48(6.17%)145-155.75Correction 152.04(-2.21%)149.82-154.7755
24Aug_14_2020-18%-283.1% 4.5%,0.5(-0.3)-0.2%,-0(-0.3)-3.1%,-0.3-00.31%3.9%-0.2-0.3-0.11.16.62%1.813.66   146.45(9.98%)137.62-151Correction 142.28(-2.85%)141.07-147.1257
25Aug_13_2020-25.4%-248.3% 7.1%,0.7(-0.2)2.1%,0.2(-0.3)-4.4%,-0.4-3.6-0.06%4%-1.1-1.1-0.81.26.66%1.710.73   133.16(6.97%)125.77-140.7Uptrend Consolidation 137.5(3.26%)138.51-134.555
iDateTo High-Lowema20
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ema10
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ema5
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Last
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BBVHourly
BBV
RVVSIVVIXCDVolume
millions
Close  5 Day
Target  
Trend
Narrative
  5 Day
Price Change  
SRIRSI
Click to see actual return for next trading day.
 
 
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