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     Wed. Sep. 2, 2020



Trading Signals: NVAX Stock Price Prediction and Forecast (Tue. Apr. 1, 2003 - Wed. Oct. 28, 2020)

(Novavax, Inc.)

NVAX latest price $102.8800 (-2.01%) ($94.1810 - $105.3400) on Wed. Sep. 2, 2020.

Trend and Trading Plan

Trend Narrative  Growing Downtrend
Intraday Reversal Probability  N/A.
Daily Trend  NVAX declines -2.2% a day on average for past five trading days.
Weekly Trend  NVAX declines -14.5% a week on average for past two weeks.
Market Behavior  Broad based rally for large cap. Broad based rally for small cap.
Correlated ETFs  Broad market will support NVAX decline at-1.5% a week (39% probability)
  XBI(48%)    ARKG(39%)    IBB(37%)    CNCR(33%)    GDX(33%)  
Factors Impacting NVAX price  NVAX will decline at least -4% in a week (12% probabilities).
  FXI(-17%)    TBT(-12%)    MCHI(-10%)    EWJ(-9%)    VXX(-8%)  
Explanation   The decline is sustainable and supported by the broad market.
Trading Plan  Not Available
 
Valuation to SPY   -1.5
 
Relative Volatility   1.6 (options are expensive)
 
Hourly BBV   -1
Hourly Trend   -2.66% [$103.48(-5.04), $106.31(-2)]
Last Hour Trend   1.3% [$103.47, $102.13]


NVAX Next 1 - 5 Day Price Forecast

Bullish Probability  20%
Bullish Price Move  7.5%
Bearish Probability  80%
Bearish Price Move  -7.5%
Recommended Position Size  -8%
Latest Price  $102.8800
Next Day Open Price  $105.55(2.6%)
1 - 3 Day Target Price  $95.92(-6.77%)
1 - 5 Day Possible Target  $72.91(-29.13%)
1 - 5 Day Price Range  $89.88 - $107.06
Resistance Level  $132.68
5 Day Moving Average  $106.65(-3.53%)
10 Day Moving Average  $115.39(-10.84%)
20 Day Moving Average  $132.68(-22.46%)
To recent high  -42.4%
To recent low  132.5%
Market Cap  $6.297b
 
Option Sentiment  
 
 
Earning Release Date  Wed. Nov. 4, 2020
Analyst One Year Target Price  $227.60 ($105.00 - $290.00)
  5 analysts (last updated on Wed. Aug. 5, 2020)
% to Average Target Price  121.23%
% to Low Target Price  2.06%
% to High Target Price  181.88%
 


  
 
 


Novavax, Inc. is operates as a clinical-stage biotechnology company, which focuses on the discovery, development and commercialization of vaccines to prevent infectious diseases. It produces vaccine candidates to respond to both known and emerging disease threats by using the proprietary recombinant nanoparticle vaccine technology. The firm's vaccine candidates include ResVax and NanoFlu. It also develops immune stimulating saponin-based adjuvants through its wholly owned Swedish subsidiary, Novavax AB. The company was founded in 1987 and is headquartered in Gaithersburg, MD.

JUL 7, 2020 Shares of NVAX surged more than 40% on the news ts has received $1.6 to develop and to deliver up to 100 million doses of the company’s late-stage Covid-19 vaccine candidate as part of the U.S. government’s Operation Warp Speed program.
The vaccine, which focuses on boosting the body’s immune system to effectively combat a Covid-19 infection, is currently in phase 1 and phase 2 clinical trials in Australia, with preliminary results expected at the end of this month.


$. Technical analysis works only if the market conditions in the future are not drastically different from the past. Always read market news to understand the causes of the price movement before making a trading decision. News

$. NVAX price fluctuates within 18.05% (three month std-dev: 7.52%    one year average std_dev: 0%) daily (68% of days).
$. NVAX price fluctuates within 0% weekly (one year average std_dev: %).

Analysis   News   Options   Weekly Chart   Daily Chart   2 Month Daily Chart   

  >  20201002

iDateTo High-Lowema20
Trend
ema10
Trend
ema5
Trend
Hourly
Trend
Last
Hour
EMA
Ratio
BBVHourly
BBV
RVVSIVVIXCDVolume
millions
CloseActualPriceRangeTrend-Narrative  NextDay
PriceTarget  
NextDayPriceRangeRSI
1Sep_2_2020-42.4%-132.5% -8.7%,-0.5(-0.1)-14.5%,-0.8(-0.1)-2.2%,-0.1-0.31.3%-13%-1.2-1-1.52.45.04%0.26.04   102.88(-2.01%)94.18-105.34Growing Downtrend 95.92(-6.77%)89.88-107.0634
2Sep_1_2020-41.2%-137.3% -7.4%,-0.4(-0)-12.2%,-0.7(-0)-1.5%,-0.100.18%-12.1%-1.3-1.2-1.52.26.14%04.81   104.99(-4.84%)102.3-110.29Downtrend 99.46(-5.27%)95.17-109.4542
3Aug_31_2020-38.2%-149.3% -6.8%,-0.4(-0.1)-11.7%,-0.7(0)-1.6%,-0.1-0.30.65%-10.9%-1.3-0.4-1.52.15.98%0.16.21   110.33(2.43%)106.76-118.14Downtrend 104.87(-4.95%)100.64-114.7435
4Aug_28_2020-39.7%-143.4% -6%,-0.4(-0.1)-12.2%,-0.8(-0.1)-5%,-0.3-0.3-0.25%-9.3%-1.6-0.8-1.91.96.71%0.83.18   107.71(0.36%)102-110.17Relative Oversold 109.15(1.34%)93.23-122.1927
5Aug_27_2020-39.9%-142.5% -4.7%,-0.3(-0.1)-11.4%,-0.8(-0)-5.7%,-0.4-0.30.42%-7.8%-1.8-1.1-2.11.86.92%0.74.79   107.32(-6.36%)106.3-116.37Downtrend 103.2(-3.84%)99.23-112.4731
 
6Aug_26_2020-35.8%-159% -3.2%,-0.3(-0.1)-10.8%,-0.9(0)-4.9%,-0.4-1.5-0.45%-7.2%-1.7-1-21.66.55%1.36.96   114.61(1.13%)106.5-122.73Relative Oversold 117.4(2.43%)104.08-128.2934
7Aug_25_2020-36.5%-156.1% -2.1%,-0.2(-0.1)-11.4%,-1(-0.2)-4.8%,-0.4-2.41.63%-7.3%-2.1-1.5-2.21.47.36%1.612.96   113.33(-5.04%)97.3-117.74Growing Downtrend 110.94(-2.11%)107.66-118.3732
8Aug_24_2020-33.1%-169.7% -0.6%,-0.1(-0.1)-9.6%,-1(-0.4)-5%,-0.5-1.5-0.11%-6%-2-2.1-2.21.36.59%1.78.45   119.34(-13.23%)116.95-132.8Downtrend 117.38(-1.64%)114.67-123.7241
9Aug_21_2020-22.9%-210.8% 0.8%,0.1(-0)-5.9%,-0.7(-0.2)-1.2%,-0.1-0.60.54%-2.9%-0.9-1.7-1.21.25.19%1.75.61   137.54(-3.85%)133.3-145.8Correction 128.16(-6.82%)126.44-135.0747
10Aug_20_2020-19.9%-223.3% 0.9%,0.1(-0)-3.8%,-0.4(-0.1)1.4%,0.2-0.6-0.45%-0.8%-0.5-0.3-0.71.24.71%1.53.69   143.05(-2.72%)142.13-148.79Correction 135.65(-5.17%)134.12-141.7754
 
11Aug_19_2020-17.6%-232.3% 1.1%,0.1(-0)-3.4%,-0.4(0)3.2%,0.4-0.30.52%0.8%-0.20.6-0.41.24.65%1.65.3   147.04(0.56%)140-149Downtrend 146.78(-0.18%)146.39-147.6954
12Aug_18_2020-18.1%-230.5% 1.4%,0.2(-0.1)-3.4%,-0.4(-0.1)-0.5%,-0.11.20.17%2.4%-0.30.2-0.51.25.6%1.67.4   146.23(-5.95%)138.42-154.49Correction 138.63(-5.2%)137.05-144.9254
13Aug_17_2020-12.9%-251.4% 2.5%,0.3(-0.2)-2.7%,-0.3(-0.3)-3.1%,-0.32.10.58%3.3%0.40.40.21.15.08%1.85.66   155.48(6.17%)145-155.75Correction 152.04(-2.21%)149.82-154.7755
14Aug_14_2020-18%-283.1% 4.5%,0.5(-0.3)-0.2%,-0(-0.3)-3.1%,-0.3-00.31%3.9%-0.2-0.3-0.11.16.62%1.813.66   146.45(9.98%)137.62-151Correction 142.28(-2.85%)141.07-147.1257
15Aug_13_2020-25.4%-248.3% 7.1%,0.7(-0.2)2.1%,0.2(-0.3)-4.4%,-0.4-3.6-0.06%4%-1.1-1.1-0.81.26.66%1.710.73   133.16(6.97%)125.77-140.7Uptrend Consolidation 137.5(3.26%)138.51-134.555
 
16Aug_12_2020-30.3%-225.6% 9.6%,0.9(-0.3)5.2%,0.5(-0.3)-5.8%,-0.5-3-0.89%5.4%-1.4-2.1-1.31.38.38%1.517.67   124.48(-16.72%)112.51-148.5Uptrend Consolidation 130.79(5.07%)132.13-126.848
17Aug_11_2020-16.3%-509.9% 12.5%,1(-0.1)9.1%,0.8(-0.1)-0.9%,-0.1-0.3-3.18%7.4%0.1-20.21.16.78%1.315.11   149.48(-16.25%)143.25-170Uptrend Consolidation 149.85(0.25%)148.58-153.6654
18Aug_10_20200%-628.2% 13.4%,1(-0)10.5%,0.8(0.1)2.8%,0.20.30.45%8.8%1.61.21.61.26.25%1.67.43   178.49(4.9%)172.86-181.7Uptrend 183.74(2.94%)170.66-189.3470
19Aug_7_2020-1.8%-838.5% 13.9%,1(0)9.2%,0.6(0.2)3.4%,0.20.3-0.29%8.9%1.30.91.41.35.49%1.66.5   170.15(1.5%)166.26-178.56Growing Uptrend 176.84(3.93%)163.97-180.0569
20Aug_6_2020-3.3%-876.6% 13.6%,0.9(-0)6.8%,0.4(0)2.7%,0.21.21.16%9.2%1.311.41.45.92%1.67.85   167.63(-3.28%)160.26-178.48Uptrend 172.04(2.63%)161.15-176.766
 
21Aug_5_20200%-909.7% 13.8%,0.9(0)6.6%,0.4(-0)3.7%,0.21.20.35%9.9%1.71.81.81.46.34%1.617.78   173.32(10.33%)165.11-189.4Uptrend 177.41(2.36%)164.31-183.0278
22Aug_4_20200%-815.2% 13.5%,0.9(-0.1)7%,0.4(-0.1)1.2%,0.10.6-0.08%10.8%1.21.81.31.49.49%1.58.24   157.09(0.81%)150.28-157.3Uptrend Consolidation 150.29(-4.33%)146.13-162.7778
23Aug_3_20200%-807.8% 14.5%,0.8(0)8.7%,0.5(-0.1)2.3%,0.10.30.85%11.7%1.221.31.59.92%1.66.72   155.83(8.84%)144.69-159.97Uptrend 161.49(3.63%)149.84-166.4779
24Jul_31_2020-3.6%-734.1% 14.3%,0.8(0)10.1%,0.6(-0.2)1.3%,0.1-0-0.31%13.6%0.80.20.91.59.87%1.74.23   143.18(-2.34%)142-148.78Uptrend Consolidation 139.3(-2.71%)135.82-149.7278
25Jul_30_2020-1.2%-754.1% 14.2%,0.8(-0)13.1%,0.7(-0.1)1%,0.10.30.33%16.1%1.111.21.610.9%1.75.4   146.61(0.84%)139.57-148.88Uptrend Consolidation 139.65(-4.75%)134.28-155.7484
iDateTo High-Lowema20
Trend
ema10
Trend
ema5
Trend
Hourly
Trend
Last
Hour
EMA
Ratio
BBVHourly
BBV
RVVSIVVIXCDVolume
millions
Close  5 Day
Target  
Trend
Narrative
  5 Day
Price Change  
SRIRSI
Click to see actual return for next trading day.
 
 
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