Trading Signals: NUGT Stock Price Prediction and Forecast

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Thu. Feb. 3, 2011

Trading Signals: NUGT Stock Price Prediction and Forecast (Wed. Dec. 8, 2010 - Fri. Dec. 22, 2023)

(Direxion Daily Gold Miners Bull 3X ETF)
NUGT latest price $65880.0000 (5.81%) ($61324.0000 - $66200.0000) on Thu. Feb. 3, 2011.

Trend Analysis and Forecast

Average Daily Percentage Swing   3.45% (three month average)
RSI   51
Latest Price   $65880.0000(5.81%)
Stocks Behave Similarly   Similar Stock List
Daily Trend   NUGT advances 2.1% a day on average for past five trading days.
Weekly Trend   NUGT declines -0.4% a week on average for past two weeks.
Market Behavior   Normal for large cap. Normal for small cap.
Correlated ETFs   Broad market will support NUGT advance at 0% a week (0% probability)
GLD(73%)    EEM(26%)    PCY(25%)    REMX(25%)    VWO(25%)
Factors Impacting NUGT price   NUGT will decline at least -1.725% in a week (0% probabilities).
PEJ(10%)    SHY(11%)    XLY(12%)    XLK(13%)    TLT(13%)
Explanation The rally is not sustainable and not supported by the broad market.

Relative Volatility (options are extremely cheap)

Market Trend Strength   -1.725% (StdDev 3.45%)
Hourly BBV 0 ()
Intraday Trend 4.6%

5 Day Moving Average   $62476(5.45%)
10 Day Moving Average   $61408.66(7.28%)
20 Day Moving Average   $63363.49(3.97%)
To recent high   -17%
To recent low   13.2%
Market Cap   $N/A

Average daily price decay: -0.01%

$. NUGT is a 3x leveraged ETF. You'll lose 0.01% a day on average for holding it.$. NUGT price fluctuates within 5.28% (three month std-dev: 3.45%) daily (68% of days).

Sample size 0 Average positive next day return: 0%(0%) Average negative next day return: 0%(0%) Sample size 0 Average positive next three day return: 0%(0%) Average negative next three day return: %(0%) Sample size 0 Average positive next weekly return: 0%(0%) Average negative next weekly return: 0%(0%)

Analysis News Options Weekly Chart Daily Chart 2 Month Daily Chart

> 20110303

i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD
1	Feb_3_2011	69700.22	63363.49	61408.66	62476			65880(5.81%)	N/A	N/A	0	1	9	-10000	12	-1	0	47%	-0.14	-82.4	3.45%	0	0.8	51	0
2	Feb_2_2011	69798.17	63539.37	60911.74	61200			62260(-1.83%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	0.3	-15	-10000	-3	-50	0	43%	-0.28	-93.9	3.34%	0	-0.4	39	0
3	Feb_1_2011	69996.55	64002.08	60967.69	61508			63420(5.77%)	DP	OpenShort	-65	0.5	-7	-10000	10	-57	0	43%	-0.25	-88.5	3.38%	0	-0.1	39	0
4	Jan_31_2011	70174.29	64596.22	61003.87	60468			59960(-1.48%)	DT	HoldShort	-50	-0.1	-20	-10000	2	-86	0	38%	-0.4	-77.8	3.26%	0	-1	39	0
5	Jan_28_2011	70458.02	65475.68	61243.43	60276			60860(2.29%)	DP	OpenShort	-65	0.1	-25	-10000	1	-101	0	38%	-0.39	-67.3	3.3%	0	-0.8	41	0

6	Jan_27_2011	70732.25	66247.98	61628.07	60144			59500(-6.74%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.1	-31	-10000	-4	-110	0	38%	-0.46	-61.9	3.31%	0	-1.1	39	0
7	Jan_26_2011	71062.61	67155.16	62592.39	60540			63800(9.58%)	DP	OpenShort	-65	0.5	-27	-10000	1	-109	0	42%	-0.31	-56.5	3.19%	0	-0.5	38	0
8	Jan_25_2011	71282.69	67811.14	63120.5	60424			58220(-1.32%)	DT	HoldShort	-65	-0.3	-48	-10000	-15	-145	0	31%	-0.57	-53.6	2.69%	0	-1.5	22	0
9	Jan_24_2011	71690.9	68613.35	64033.4	61664			59000(-1.99%)	DT	HoldShort	-65	-0.4	-43	-10000	-8	-146	0	31%	-0.57	-52.2	2.73%	0	-1.6	19	0
10	Jan_21_2011	72100.28	69422.63	64847.75	62333.76			60200(-2.08%)	DT	HoldShort	-65	-0.4	-50	-10000	-11	-166	0	31%	-0.55	-52.3	2.76%	0	-1.6	19	0

11	Jan_20_2011	72496.96	70125.26	65546.45	63297.76			61480(-2.75%)	DT	HoldShort	-65	-0.3	-58	-10000	-18	-179	0	31%	-0.52	-53.7	2.8%	0	-1.6	24	0
12	Jan_19_2011	72876.86	70839.01	66442.33	64933.76			63220(-1.86%)	DT	HoldShort	-65	-0.3	-53	-10000	-14	-171	0	31%	-0.47	-53.3	2.82%	0	-1.5	24	0
13	Jan_18_2011	73221.74	71474	67328.6	66273.76			64420(3.32%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	-0.4	-44	-10000	-6	-159	0	31%	-0.44	-52.7	2.87%	0	-1.4	27	0
14	Jan_14_2011	73547.73	71992.4	68484.04	66809.76			62348.8(-4.11%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-1	-44	-10000	-9	-150	0	26%	-0.58	-57.4	2.81%	0	-2.1	33	0
15	Jan_13_2011	73978.46	72629.99	70069.41	67692			65020(-6.66%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.7	-35	-10000	-4	-126	0	29%	-0.48	-64.2	2.79%	0	-1.9	34	0

16	Jan_12_2011	74336.8	73230.66	71255.47	68044			69660(-0.37%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	0.4	-32	-10000	-2	-123	0	34%	-0.26	-68.9	2.55%	0	-1	44	0
17	Jan_11_2011	74531.67	73705.87	72048.48	68192			69920(4.2%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	0.5	-32	-10000	-5	-113	0	34%	-0.27	0	2.6%	0	-1	41	0
18	Jan_10_2011	74732.17	74166.55	72787.47	68656			67100(0.51%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	-0.4	-45	-10000	-22	-113	0	26%	-0.46	0	2.47%	0	-1.8	33	0
19	Jan_7_2011	75079.09	74735.15	73511.47	70536			66760(-0.03%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-1.1	-40	-10000	-25	-83	0	26%	-0.52	0	2.52%	0	-2.3	37	0
20	Jan_6_2011	75475.24	75301.01	74372.75	72864			66780(-5.14%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-2	-26	-10000	-21	-40	0	26%	-0.57	0	2.57%	0	-2.8	37	0

21	Jan_5_2011	75910	75843.88	75151.74	74888			70400(-2.55%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-1.9	-15	-10000	-16	-12	0	30%	-0.38	0	2.42%	0	-2.3	38	0
22	Jan_4_2011	76200	75843.88	75691.21	76412			72240(-5.57%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-2.1	-9	-10000	-11	-4	0	33%	-0.29	0	2.43%	0	36.1	35	0
23	Jan_3_2011	76420	75843.88	76056.66	77472			76500(-2.42%)	UD	OpenLong	75	-0.5	6	-10000	7	3	0	43%	0.01	0	2.13%	0	42	42	0
24	Dec_31_2010	76415.29	75843.88	75838.15	76908			78400(1.95%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.8	8	-10000	9	4	0	49%	0.16	0	2.11%	0	41.9	50	0
25	Dec_30_2010	76291.25	75843.88	75398.02	76152			76900(-1.44%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.4	7	-10000	8	3	0	49%		0	2.12%	0	41.3	48	0
i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD

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