Trading Signals: IWM Stock Price Prediction and Forecast

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Fri. Aug. 15, 2008

Trading Signals: IWM Stock Price Prediction and Forecast (Tue. Apr. 1, 2003 - Fri. May. 24, 2024)

(iShares Russell 2000)
IWM latest price $75.1000 (-0.27%) ($74.4800 - $76.2700) on Fri. Aug. 15, 2008.

Trend Analysis and Forecast

Average Daily Percentage Swing   1.5% (three month average)
RSI   76
Latest Price   $75.1000(-0.27%)
Stocks Behave Similarly   Similar Stock List
Top Holdings   Top Holding List
Daily Trend   IWM advances 0.5% a day on average for past five trading days.
Weekly Trend   IWM advances 2.8% a week on average for past two weeks.
Market Behavior   Normal for large cap. Normal for small cap.
Correlated ETFs   Broad market will support IWM advance at 0% a week (0% probability)
SPY(90%)    PEJ(84%)    XLY(84%)    QQQ(82%)    XLK(79%)
Factors Impacting IWM price   IWM will decline at least -0.75% in a week (0% probabilities).
TLT(-33%)    SHY(-18%)    TIP(-8%)    GLD(4%)    LQD(18%)
Explanation The rally is not sustainable and not supported by the broad market.

Relative Volatility (options are extremely cheap)

Market Trend Strength   -0.75% (StdDev 1.5%)
Hourly BBV 0 ()
Intraday Trend -0.8%

5 Day Moving Average   $74.83(0.36%)
10 Day Moving Average   $73.45(2.25%)
20 Day Moving Average   $72.22(3.99%)
To recent high   -1.4%
To recent low   14.3%
Market Cap   $N/A

Average Volume    million
BBV (position on Bollinger band)   1.5
One Month Target Price   > $75.63
(if BBV positive, VIX trend negative.)
Correction Price   < $69.96

$. The price is -1.4% to new high. In the past, the price will move at least 10% above the recent low once it hits new high. Now it's 0.7% away from the target price of 75.63.
$. IWM price fluctuates within 2.58% (three month std-dev: 1.5%) daily (68% of days).

Sample size 0 Average positive next day return: 0%(0%) Average negative next day return: 0%(0%) Sample size 0 Average positive next three day return: 0%(0%) Average negative next three day return: %(0%) Sample size 0 Average positive next weekly return: 0%(0%) Average negative next weekly return: 0%(0%)

Analysis News Options Weekly Chart Daily Chart 2 Month Daily Chart

> 20080915

i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD
1	Aug_15_2008	71.42	72.22	73.45	74.83			75.1(-0.27%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.1	34	-10000	7	113	98.17	50%	0.08	100.4	1.5%	0	1.5	76	0
2	Aug_14_2008	71.36	71.91	73.08	74.44			75.3(0.97%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.5	39	-10000	15	110	118.19	50%	0.07	98.8	1.5%	0	1.8	68	0
3	Aug_13_2008	71.31	71.56	72.67	73.62			74.58(0.36%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.5	29	-10000	8	90	151.01	50%	0.07	94.1	1.5%	0	1.7	68	0
4	Aug_12_2008	71.26	71.24	72.36	73.17			74.31(-0.75%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.6	26	-10000	9	77	128.84	52%	0.06	84.3	1.5%	0	1.5	57	0
5	Aug_11_2008	71.22	70.83	72.03	72.7			74.87(2.39%)	UT	OpenLong	75	1	27	-10000	15	64	174.58	52%	0.06	70.2	1.52%	0	1.9	61	0

6	Aug_8_2008	71.18	70.4	71.48	71.88			73.12(2.64%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.6	13	-10000	6	35	112.77	49%	0.08	64.7	1.49%	0	1.4	63	0
7	Aug_7_2008	71.12	70.1	71.22	71.54			71.24(-1.49%)	UD	OpenLong	75	-0.2	8	-10000	-0	33	89.73	45%	0.04	62.5	1.45%	0	0.6	61	0
8	Aug_6_2008	71.09	69.9	71.12	71.55			72.32(0.5%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.4	13	-10000	3	44	79.59	46%	0.06	59.7	1.46%	0	1.2	67	0
9	Aug_5_2008	71.05	69.6	71.06	71.41			71.96(1.71%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.3	17	-10000	3	60	93.55	46%	0.1	54	1.46%	0	1.2	67	0
10	Aug_4_2008	70.98	69.39	70.99	71.25			70.75(-0.92%)	UD	OpenLong	75	-0.2	26	-10000	5	87	104.2	44%	0.07	48.3	1.45%	0	0.7	72	0

11	Aug_1_2008	70.93	69.15	70.91	71			71.41(0.13%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.2	27	-10000	3	100	107.41	46%	0.06	36.4	1.44%	0	1.1	73	0
12	Jul_31_2008	70.89	68.9	70.67	70.85			71.32(-0.4%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.2	31	-10000	5	107	95.29	46%	0.07	27.5	1.45%	0	1.2	66	0
13	Jul_30_2008	70.84	68.67	70.39	70.61			71.61(0.6%)	UT	HoldLong	50	0.5	26	-10000	-1	106	153.23	46%	0.06	14.7	1.47%	0	1.4	68	0
14	Jul_29_2008	70.8	68.53	70.06	70.68			71.18(2.45%)	UT	HoldLong	50	0.3	30	-10000	-1	122	122.97	46%	0.1	13.1	1.47%	0	1.4	69	0
15	Jul_28_2008	70.73	68.53	69.56	70.73			69.48(-1.7%)	UD	OpenLong	65	-0.7	29	-10000	-1	118	82.12	43%	0.04	7.8	1.44%	0	0.6	55	0

16	Jul_25_2008	70.7	68.4	69.26	70.78			70.68(0.81%)	UT	OpenLong	75	-0.1	38	-10000	7	130	112.55	45%	0.07	1.5	1.43%	0	1.2	67	0
17	Jul_24_2008	70.65	68.33	68.92	70.42			70.11(-2.53%)	UD	OpenLong	75	-0.2	37	-10000	7	126	112.12	45%	0.03	-14.1	1.43%	0	1	63	0
18	Jul_23_2008	70.63	68.37	68.6	70.08			71.93(0.64%)	UT	OpenLong	75	1	42	-10000	15	123	118.34	48%	0.06	-22.5	1.4%	0	1.9	66	0
19	Jul_22_2008	70.59	68.27	68.02	69.35			71.47(2.51%)	UT	OpenLong	75	1.2	39	-10000	23	85	136.37	48%	0.04	-42.7	1.4%	0	1.8	55	0
20	Jul_21_2008	70.56	68.26	67.63	68.24			69.72(1.22%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.8	22	-10000	16	39	70.22	44%	0.01	-63.4	1.38%	0	0.8	51	0

21	Jul_18_2008	70.55	68.37	67.22	67.52			68.88(0.7%)	N/A	N/A	0	0.7	2	-10000	7	-13	99.59	44%	-0.01	-68.7	1.37%	0	0.3	45	0
22	Jul_17_2008	70.56	68.58	66.95	67.2			68.4(0.15%)	DP	OpenShort	-65	0.5	-6	-10000	7	-45	115.52	44%	-0.04	-61.2	1.37%	0	-0.1	44	0
23	Jul_16_2008	70.59	68.8	66.79	66.9			68.3(3.67%)	DP	OpenShort	-65	0.6	-14	-10000	9	-83	112.23	49%	-0.06	-58.2	1.37%	0	-0.2	38	0
24	Jul_15_2008	70.63	69.05	66.82	66.49			65.88(-0.42%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.2	-37	-10000	-10	-117	143.44	43%	-0.07	-57.6	1.35%	0	-1.2	32	0
25	Jul_14_2008	70.68	69.44	67.13	66.93			66.16(-1.65%)	DT	HoldShort	-50	-0.3	-27	-10000	2	-115	113.94	43%		-52.8	1.35%	0	-1.2	30	0
i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD

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