Trading Signals: IPO Stock Price Prediction and Forecast

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Thu. May. 14, 2020

Trading Signals: IPO Stock Price Prediction and Forecast (Tue. Jan. 19, 2016 - Fri. Dec. 22, 2023)

(Renaissance IPO ETF)
IPO latest price $33.2367 (0.79%) ($32.3300 - $33.2800) on Thu. May. 14, 2020.

Trend Analysis and Forecast

Average Daily Percentage Swing   3.99% (three month average)
RSI   69
Latest Price   $33.2367(0.79%)
Stocks Behave Similarly   Similar Stock List
Top Holdings   Top Holding List
Daily Trend   IPO advances 0.5% a day on average for past five trading days.
Weekly Trend   IPO advances 4.5% a week on average for past two weeks.
Market Behavior   Value stock rally for large cap. Normal for small cap.
Correlated ETFs   Broad market will support IPO advance at 0% a week (0% probability)
IBUY(85%)    ONLN(81%)    SKYY(78%)    IWF(75%)    IWO(75%)
Factors Impacting IPO price   IPO will decline at least -1.995% in a week (0% probabilities).
VIXM(-39%)    UUP(-23%)    VXX(-15%)    TBT(-9%)    UNG(2%)
Explanation The rally is not sustainable and not supported by the broad market.

Relative Volatility (options are extremely cheap)

Market Trend Strength   -1.995% (StdDev 3.99%)
Hourly BBV 0 ()
Intraday Trend 2.1%

5 Day Moving Average   $33.32(-0.25%)
10 Day Moving Average   $32.15(3.38%)
20 Day Moving Average   $31.16(6.66%)
To recent high   -5.4%
To recent low   53.7%
Market Cap   $N/A

$. IPO price fluctuates within 5.04% (three month std-dev: 3.99%) daily (68% of days).

Sample size 7 Average positive next day return: 1.81%(86%) Average negative next day return: -0.11%(14%) Sample size 7 Average positive next three day return: 3.13%(100%) Average negative next three day return: %(0%) Sample size 7 Average positive next weekly return: 3.95%(57%) Average negative next weekly return: -3.73%(43%)

Analysis News Options Weekly Chart Daily Chart 2 Month Daily Chart

> 20200614

i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD
1	May_14_2020	30.51	31.16	32.15	33.32	33.28	32.97	33.24(0.79%)	UD	OpenLong	65	-0.1	14	-70	-3	66	0.01	44%	0.1	90.1	3.99%	0	1.3	69	0.8
2	May_13_2020	30.48	30.92	31.92	33.15	33.33	33.41	32.97(-0.92%)	UD	OpenLong	75	-0.1	22	30	5	72	0.03	44%	0.07	93.1	3.99%	0	1.3	70	0.1
3	May_12_2020	30.46	30.69	31.75	32.77	33.07	33.6	33.28(-1.82%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.3	33	140	18	77	0.01	44%	0.1	95.9	3.98%	0	1.7	71	1.2
4	May_11_2020	30.43	30.44	31.45	32.23	32.4	33.24	33.9(2.01%)	UT	HoldLong	65	1.1	38	200	26	73	0.02	44%	0.1	93.4	3.98%	0	2.2	78	2.3
5	May_8_2020	30.4	30.11	31.1	31.5	31.71	32.55	33.23(2.69%)	UT	OpenLong	75	1.3	38	210	30	60	0.04	44%	0.07	104	3.94%	0	2.3	67	2

6	May_7_2020	30.38	29.81	30.78	30.83	30.93	31.55	32.36(4.15%)	UT	OpenLong	75	1.2	23	150	17	40	0.03	45%	0.07	106.2	3.96%	0	2	67	1.4
7	May_6_2020	30.36	29.52	30.49	30.53	30.44	30.86	31.07(1.57%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.4	13	90	6	34	0.01	43%	0	105	3.92%	0	1.2	67	0.8
8	May_5_2020	30.36	29.27	30.35	30.59	30.43	30.31	30.59(1.2%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0	13	-40	3	41	0.01	42%	0	92.7	3.92%	0	0.9	65	1.1
9	May_4_2020	30.36	29.04	30.19	30.55	30.56	30.01	30.23(1.13%)	UD	OpenLong	65	-0.2	2	-120	-10	39	0.01	44%	0	83.7	3.92%	0	0.7	64	0.5
10	May_1_2020	30.36	28.75	30.16	30.64	30.78	30.56	29.89(-3.15%)	UD	OpenLong	65	-0.4	8	-40	-8	56	0	44%	0	66.9	3.91%	0	0.6	68	0.4

11	Apr_30_2020	30.36	28.5	30.11	30.68	30.9	31.1	30.86(-1.63%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.1	25	70	8	76	0	44%	0.03	56.6	3.89%	0	1.1	76	1.3
12	Apr_29_2020	30.35	28.22	29.87	30.42	30.62	31.01	31.37(3.2%)	UT	HoldLong	65	0.5	30	110	13	81	0.01	44%	0.03	52.2	3.89%	0	1.5	82	1.7
13	Apr_28_2020	30.34	27.96	29.58	30.09	30.25	30.69	30.4(-0.88%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.2	32	120	14	87	0.01	45%	0	52.9	3.87%	0	1.2	83	1.2
14	Apr_27_2020	30.34	27.76	29.37	29.78	29.93	30.24	30.67(1.86%)	UT	HoldLong	65	0.5	31	90	11	91	0.02	44%	0	59	3.87%	0	1.5	84	1.4
15	Apr_24_2020	30.34	27.53	29.04	29.62	29.57	29.8	30.11(1.83%)	UT	HoldLong	65	0.3	31	50	6	105	0	43%	-0.03	68.7	3.87%	0	1.4	88	0.9

16	Apr_23_2020	30.35	27.37	28.76	29.46	29.43	29.62	29.57(-0.36%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.1	37	40	9	120	0.01	43%	-0.03	82	3.87%	0	1.3	81	0.4
17	Apr_22_2020	30.36	27.17	28.48	29.23	29.3	29.33	29.68(2.85%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.3	37	10	8	123	0.01	43%	-0.03	93.2	3.87%	0	1.5	73	0.3
18	Apr_21_2020	30.37	26.94	28.1	28.99	29.03	29.24	28.85(-3.48%)	UD	OpenLong	75	-0.1	32	50	4	115	0	44%	-0.07	101	3.85%	0	1.2	63	-0.2
19	Apr_20_2020	30.39	26.68	27.82	28.88	28.77	29.27	29.89(2.01%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.6	42	110	17	116	0.01	44%	-0.07	97.3	3.83%	0	1.9	65	0.6
20	Apr_17_2020	30.41	26.35	27.24	28.38	28.49	28.82	29.31(3.04%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.6	37	90	19	90	0.01	44%	-0.03	84.7	3.85%	0	1.8	65	1.2

21	Apr_16_2020	30.42	26.05	26.76	27.96	28	28.28	28.44(-0.04%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.3	24	70	11	61	0.01	44%	-0.1	77.4	3.83%	0	1.5	56	1.1
22	Apr_15_2020	30.45	25.72	26.44	27.61	27.68	28.16	28.45(0.42%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.5	27	130	19	52	0	44%	-0.1	50.3	3.83%	0	1.6	63	1.1
23	Apr_14_2020	30.48	25.45	26.2	27.08	27.26	27.71	28.33(3.55%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.7	25	140	20	40	0.01	44%	-0.1	26.9	3.83%	0	1.7	64	1.5
24	Apr_13_2020	30.51	25.15	26	26.58	26.76	27.21	27.36(0.55%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.5	27	140	22	43	0.01	44%	-0.13	5.4	3.81%	0	1.3	70	1.2
25	Apr_9_2020	30.55	25.04	25.88	25.92	26.3	26.82	27.21(1.87%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.8	28	180	24	38	0.01	44%		-20.3	3.78%	0	1.4	69	0.9
i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD

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