Trading Signals: IPO Stock Price Prediction and Forecast

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Tue. Sep. 5, 2017

Trading Signals: IPO Stock Price Prediction and Forecast (Tue. Jan. 19, 2016 - Fri. Dec. 22, 2023)

(Renaissance IPO ETF)
IPO latest price $26.1200 (-0.72%) ($25.9990 - $26.3100) on Tue. Sep. 5, 2017.

Trend Analysis and Forecast

Average Daily Percentage Swing   0.75% (three month average)
RSI   70
Latest Price   $26.1200(-0.72%)
Stocks Behave Similarly   Similar Stock List
Top Holdings   Top Holding List
Daily Trend   IPO advances 0.2% a day on average for past five trading days.
Weekly Trend   IPO advances 1.3% a week on average for past two weeks.
Market Behavior   Broad based sell-off for large cap. Broad based sell-off for small cap.
Correlated ETFs   Broad market will support IPO advance at 0% a week (0% probability)
EWI(13%)    XLF(13%)    EMHY(12%)    EWP(12%)    VT(12%)
Factors Impacting IPO price   IPO will decline at least -0.375% in a week (0% probabilities).
VIXM(-42%)    UUP(-6%)    DIA(-4%)    UNG(-3%)    IGOV(-3%)
Explanation The rally is not sustainable and not supported by the broad market.

Relative Volatility (options are extremely cheap)

Market Trend Strength   -0.375% (StdDev 0.75%)
Hourly BBV 0 ()
Intraday Trend -0.7%

5 Day Moving Average   $26.07(0.19%)
10 Day Moving Average   $25.91(0.81%)
20 Day Moving Average   $25.7(1.63%)
To recent high   -0.7%
To recent low   5.7%
Market Cap   $N/A

$. IPO price fluctuates within 1.09% (three month std-dev: 0.75%) daily (68% of days).

Sample size 6 Average positive next day return: 0.6%(50%) Average negative next day return: -0.46%(50%) Sample size 6 Average positive next three day return: 1.74%(50%) Average negative next three day return: -0.42%(50%) Sample size 6 Average positive next weekly return: 2.39%(33%) Average negative next weekly return: -1.31%(67%)

Analysis News Options Weekly Chart Daily Chart 2 Month Daily Chart

> 20171005

i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD
1	Sep_5_2017	25.13	25.7	25.91	26.07	26.12	26.21	26.12(-0.72%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.2	36	30	12	106	0	50%	0.12	35.8	0.75%	0	1.5	70	INF
2	Sep_1_2017	25.1	25.68	25.83	26.01	26.02	26.18	26.31(0.8%)	UT	OpenLong	75	1.2	43	40	25	95	0	54%	0.16	32.7	0.74%	0	2.4	69	INF
3	Aug_31_2017	25.06	25.64	25.73	25.91	25.91	26.03	26.1(0.38%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.9	35	30	21	76	0	52%	0.04	22.1	0.77%	0	2.1	71	INF
4	Aug_30_2017	25.05	25.61	25.67	25.84	25.83	25.87	26(0.71%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.8	28	10	14	69	0.01	52%	0.12	-1.4	0.77%	0	2.1	72	INF
5	Aug_29_2017	25.02	25.61	25.62	25.77	25.79	25.79	25.82(-0.05%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.3	17	0	5	52	0	52%	0.12	-14.9	0.77%	0	1.2	53	INF

6	Aug_28_2017	24.99	25.6	25.58	25.72	25.76	25.8	25.83(0.12%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.6	22	20	15	41	0	52%	0.16	-27.1	0.77%	0	1.3	51	INF
7	Aug_25_2017	24.95	25.6	25.56	25.61	25.69	25.79	25.8(0.23%)	UT	OpenLong	75	1.1	17	40	17	18	0	52%	0.12	-42.9	0.77%	0	1.2	49	INF
8	Aug_24_2017	24.92	25.59	25.51	25.53	25.57	25.72	25.74(0.35%)	N/A	N/A	0	1.1	14	50	19	-2	0	54%	0.12	-52.7	0.77%	0	0.8	51	INF
9	Aug_23_2017	24.89	25.61	25.51	25.47	25.46	25.59	25.65(0.36%)	N/A	N/A	0	0.8	5	30	13	-19	0	54%	0.12	-45.3	0.78%	0	0.2	54	INF
10	Aug_22_2017	24.86	25.63	25.46	25.46	25.42	25.43	25.56(1.06%)	DP	OpenShort	-65	0.4	-2	-0	9	-33	0	55%	0.12	-31.6	0.78%	0	-0.3	41	INF

11	Aug_21_2017	24.83	25.64	25.47	25.43	25.43	25.33	25.29(-0.45%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.6	-22	-30	-13	-48	0.01	53%	0.08	-29.6	0.78%	0	-1.4	41	INF
12	Aug_18_2017	24.81	25.67	25.52	25.5	25.48	25.4	25.4(-0.27%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.4	-18	-20	-11	-39	0	53%	0.08	-20.4	0.77%	0	-1.1	41	INF
13	Aug_17_2017	24.79	25.69	25.54	25.49	25.55	25.54	25.47(-0.35%)	DT	HoldShort	-50	-0.1	-5	0	7	-39	0	49%	0.12	-11.1	0.77%	0	-1	42	INF
14	Aug_16_2017	24.76	25.69	25.55	25.44	25.47	25.54	25.56(0.43%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	0.5	-16	30	0	-64	0	49%	0.12	-7	0.82%	0	-0.7	37	INF
15	Aug_15_2017	24.73	25.71	25.58	25.46	25.41	25.56	25.45(-0.58%)	DP	OpenShort	-65	-0	-13	40	5	-65	0	52%	0.08	4.5	0.82%	0	-1.1	36	INF

16	Aug_14_2017	24.71	25.71	25.61	25.51	25.42	25.39	25.6(0.94%)	DP	OpenShort	-65	0.4	-13	-20	3	-60	0	52%	0.12	24.4	0.84%	0	-0.5	45	INF
17	Aug_11_2017	24.68	25.71	25.63	25.55	25.46	25.26	25.36(0.43%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	-0.9	-33	-70	-22	-65	0	48%	0.12	41.9	0.83%	0	-1.6	44	INF
18	Aug_10_2017	24.65	25.72	25.68	25.6	25.61	25.46	25.25(-1.53%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-1.5	-28	-40	-19	-55	0	48%	0.12	58.4	0.85%	0	-2	40	INF
19	Aug_9_2017	24.62	25.73	25.77	25.65	25.67	25.67	25.65(-0.25%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	0	-19	0	-12	-38	0	51%	0.16	75.6	0.83%	0	-0.4	46	INF
20	Aug_8_2017	24.58	25.7	25.82	25.65	25.68	25.76	25.71(-0.25%)	N/A	N/A	0	-0	1	20	4	-8	0	51%	0.12	75.2	0.83%	0	0	56	INF

21	Aug_7_2017	24.55	25.66	25.82	25.72	25.68	25.67	25.77(0.53%)	N/A	N/A	0	0.2	2	-20	3	0	0	51%	0.2	62.8	0.83%	0	0.4	56	INF
22	Aug_3_2017	24.5	25.63	25.83	25.73	25.73	25.61	25.64(0.56%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	-0.2	-12	-30	-16	-1	0	53%	0.16	50.7	0.85%	0	0	55	INF
23	Aug_2_2017	24.46	25.58	25.85	25.77	25.78	25.79	25.5(-1.79%)	N/A	N/A	0	-0.7	-9	0	-18	18	0	54%	0.12	45	0.87%	0	-0.2	58	INF
24	Aug_1_2017	24.43	25.56	25.89	25.9	25.86	25.85	25.96(0.79%)	UT	HoldLong	50	0.1	13	-10	-2	59	0	59%	0.16	53	0.84%	0	1	69	INF
25	Jul_31_2017	24.39	25.51	25.85	25.94	25.92	25.78	25.76(-0.22%)	UD	OpenLong	65	-0.4	12	-40	-9	74	0	59%		50.3	0.84%	0	0.6	72	INF
i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD

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