Trading Signals: IPO Stock Price Prediction and Forecast

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Mon. Jul. 24, 2017

Trading Signals: IPO Stock Price Prediction and Forecast (Tue. Jan. 19, 2016 - Fri. Dec. 22, 2023)

(Renaissance IPO ETF)
IPO latest price $25.8700 (0.5%) ($25.7015 - $25.9300) on Mon. Jul. 24, 2017.

Trend Analysis and Forecast

Average Daily Percentage Swing   0.82% (three month average)
RSI   77
Latest Price   $25.8700(0.5%)
Stocks Behave Similarly   Similar Stock List
Top Holdings   Top Holding List
Daily Trend   IPO advances 0.2% a day on average for past five trading days.
Weekly Trend   IPO advances 1.8% a week on average for past two weeks.
Market Behavior   Normal for large cap. Growth stock rally for small cap.
Correlated ETFs   Broad market will support IPO advance at 0% a week (0% probability)
DIA(8%)    GDX(7%)    XME(7%)    XOP(6%)    CEMB(5%)
Factors Impacting IPO price   IPO will decline at least -0.41% in a week (0% probabilities).
XLU(-6%)    KWEB(-6%)    UUP(-5%)    REMX(-5%)    MCHI(-5%)
Explanation The rally is not sustainable and not supported by the broad market.

Relative Volatility (options are extremely cheap)

Market Trend Strength   -0.41% (StdDev 0.82%)
Hourly BBV 0 ()
Intraday Trend 0.7%

5 Day Moving Average   $25.76(0.43%)
10 Day Moving Average   $25.57(1.17%)
20 Day Moving Average   $25.29(2.29%)
To recent high   0%
To recent low   10.1%
Market Cap   $N/A

$. IPO price fluctuates within 1.38% (three month std-dev: 0.82%) daily (68% of days).

Sample size 2 Average positive next day return: 0.73%(100%) Average negative next day return: 0%(0%) Sample size 2 Average positive next three day return: 1.04%(50%) Average negative next three day return: -0.58%(50%) Sample size 2 Average positive next weekly return: 0.33%(50%) Average negative next weekly return: -0.96%(50%)

Analysis News Options Weekly Chart Daily Chart 2 Month Daily Chart

> 20170824

i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD
1	Jul_24_2017	24.21	25.29	25.57	25.76	25.8	25.77	25.87(0.5%)	UT	HoldLong	65	0.3	37	-0	6	130	0	61%	0.12	44.2	0.82%	0	1.7	77	0
2	Jul_21_2017	24.18	25.26	25.48	25.7	25.72	25.81	25.74(-0.35%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.1	34	30	5	119	0	61%	0.12	45	0.83%	0	1.5	67	0
3	Jul_20_2017	24.15	25.23	25.4	25.66	25.68	25.82	25.83(0.03%)	UT	OpenLong	75	0.5	50	40	26	123	0	63%	0.12	45.5	0.83%	0	1.9	72	0
4	Jul_19_2017	24.12	25.19	25.29	25.55	25.58	25.62	25.82(1.15%)	UT	OpenLong	75	1	36	10	18	89	0.01	64%	0.17	38.3	0.83%	0	2.3	58	0
5	Jul_18_2017	24.08	25.15	25.2	25.45	25.48	25.53	25.53(-0.16%)	UD	OpenLong	75	0.3	25	20	10	70	0	62%	0.12	28.6	0.83%	0	1.7	61	0

6	Jul_17_2017	24.05	25.14	25.13	25.35	25.44	25.54	25.57(0.15%)	UT	OpenLong	75	1	30	40	23	51	0.01	63%	0.12	23.9	0.83%	0	2	54	0
7	Jul_14_2017	24.02	25.11	25.07	25.23	25.29	25.44	25.53(0.98%)	UT	OpenLong	75	1.5	26	50	25	27	0.01	63%	0.08	-1.3	0.83%	0	2.1	54	0
8	Jul_13_2017	24	25.09	25.07	25.1	25.14	25.33	25.28(-0.16%)	UD	OpenLong	75	1	21	60	27	1	0	62%	0.13	-34.7	0.83%	0	1.1	50	0
9	Jul_12_2017	23.97	25.09	25.01	24.99	24.99	25.14	25.32(1.06%)	N/A	N/A	0	1.8	14	40	23	-13	0.01	62%	0.13	-63.9	0.84%	0	1.3	55	0
10	Jul_11_2017	23.94	25.08	24.97	24.91	24.85	24.96	25.06(0.54%)	N/A	N/A	0	0.8	0	20	11	-33	0	61%	0.04	-88.9	0.84%	0	-0.1	49	0

11	Jul_10_2017	23.93	25.09	24.99	24.88	24.85	24.84	24.93(0.03%)	DP	OpenShort	-65	0.3	-10	-0	3	-47	0	61%	0.08	-109.7	0.84%	0	-0.9	39	0
12	Jul_7_2017	23.91	25.11	25.01	24.88	24.82	24.75	24.92(0.84%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	0.1	-15	-30	-6	-42	0	61%	0.13	-111.8	0.84%	0	-1	49	0
13	Jul_6_2017	23.88	25.15	25.04	24.9	24.91	24.8	24.71(-0.93%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.8	-28	-30	-21	-47	0	60%	0.08	-91.2	0.83%	0	-1.9	43	0
14	Jul_5_2017	23.86	25.2	25.08	25.02	25	24.9	24.94(0.25%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	-0.3	-18	-30	-13	-31	0.01	59%	0.17	-64.2	0.82%	0	-1.1	44	0
15	Jul_3_2017	23.82	25.24	25.1	25.04	25.09	25.02	24.88(-0.68%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.6	-19	-10	-14	-35	0	57%	0.13	-43.2	0.84%	0	-1.3	41	0

16	Jun_30_2017	23.79	25.29	25.16	25.11	25.15	25.1	25.05(0.44%)	DP	OpenShort	-75	-0.2	-10	-10	-8	-14	0	57%	0.13	-26.1	0.83%	0	-0.8	49	0
17	Jun_29_2017	23.76	25.32	25.15	25.14	25.21	25.15	24.94(-1.46%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.7	-12	-10	-9	-20	0.01	57%	0.17	-13	0.83%	0	-1.3	41	0
18	Jun_28_2017	23.72	25.32	25.18	25.2	25.22	25.2	25.31(1.24%)	DP	OpenShort	-65	0.4	-5	-0	2	-24	0.01	61%	0.17	1.8	0.81%	0	-0.2	40	0
19	Jun_27_2017	23.68	25.32	25.17	25.15	25.21	25.26	25(-0.99%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.5	-12	20	-1	-45	0.02	59%	0.13	1.8	0.8%	0	-1.3	35	0
20	Jun_26_2017	23.65	25.32	25.2	25.18	25.18	25.24	25.25(0.12%)	DP	OpenShort	-65	0.3	-12	20	2	-55	0.01	62%	0.17	8.2	0.79%	0	-0.4	37	0

21	Jun_23_2017	23.61	25.32	25.19	25.21	25.16	25.17	25.22(-0.03%)	DP	OpenShort	-65	0	-13	-0	5	-66	0.01	63%	0.13	20.9	0.79%	0	-0.5	38	0
22	Jun_22_2017	23.58	25.32	25.21	25.17	25.21	25.13	25.23(0.63%)	DP	OpenShort	-65	0.2	-19	-20	3	-86	0	63%	0.17	26.4	0.8%	0	-0.5	36	0
23	Jun_21_2017	23.54	25.36	25.26	25.15	25.16	25.15	25.07(-0.16%)	DT	OpenShort	-75	-0.3	-34	-0	-13	-95	0	60%	0.17	34.2	0.79%	0	-1	38	0
24	Jun_20_2017	23.5	25.35	25.32	25.19	25.14	25.3	25.11(-1.22%)	DT	HoldShort	-50	-0.3	-16	40	1	-67	0.01	60%	0.17	34.7	0.82%	0	-0.8	51	0
25	Jun_19_2017	23.46	25.34	25.39	25.24	25.19	25.17	25.42(1.68%)	N/A	N/A	0	0.6	4	-10	18	-37	0	62%		34.1	0.81%	0	0.3	58	0
i	Date	ema100	ema20	ema10	ema5	Slow Hourly Trend	Fast Hourly Trend	Close	Pattern	Trade	P	SMA5 BBV	WTF	lsma10 Trend	ema5 Trend	ema10 Trend	Volume millions	Quarterly Strength	100 Daily Trend	Daily Trend Force	Daily StdDev	Hourly BBV	BBV	RSI	VIXCD

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